I expected it. For months, I've been sparking bar argument and encouraging GOTV workers with confident assertions of an electoral landslide for Barack Obama. When Pennsylvania was called for Barack, I opened the champagne, assuring the room that it was Game Over. When Oh. went for O., I wanted to kiss everyone in the room, knowing that 300+ was now a certainty.
But at 11:00:05, when the networks simultaneously called the race for Obama, I felt surprise and shock -- as if I had all along secretly expected that, somehow, they would take this from us also. My hands shook and the tears welled up. It wasn't that we finally were seeing the end to the darkest eight in our history, it wasn't that we were looking at an opportunity to undo so much. It was simple, and not so simple -- we had put a black man in the White House.
Yes. We. Did.
For the first time in so long I was truly proud of something my country had done.
I'm going to savor that for a little while. Then, it is on to the bitter hard work we have in front of us.
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Yes. We. Did.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Waddau Lookin At?
Here's a few things to look for tonight.
7pm -- polls close in Indiana, Virgina, and Georgia, among others.
If Obama wins Virgina, turn off the TV because there is no reasonable scenario for McCain to get to 270 without Virgina. McCain can win Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and still not get to 270 without Virginia. (The latest SurveyUSA poll of FLA LV, concluded yesterday, puts Obama at 50%, McCain 47%, with 1% undecided.)
If Obama also wins Georgia (which we are expecting), pop the corks because that means an Obama landslide.
We are looking for Indiana to go with McCain. If it ends up in Obama's column, it could mean Obama hitting 350 electoral votes by the time the West Coast polls shut down at 11 Eastern.
If the 7:00 polls all go with McCain, then it is on to Ohio at 7:30. I am looking for Ohio to end up in McCain's column, but it is a must-win for him and if the Buckeye state goes to Obama, it is lights out.
Then the big battlegrounds come in at 8pm -- Florida and Pennsylvania, as well as Missouri. McCain must take Florida and Pennsylvania to have shot at 270.
While we are expecting the conclusion to be writ before the 9 pm poll closings, if there's still life in the old man at 9:00, watch the results in Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and North Dakota. Obama should win New Mexico and Colorado, but if he adds either North Dakota or Arizona to his column, then you won't need to stay up for the final battleground closings at ten pm: Montana and Nevada.
I'm expecting an early night of poll-watching and a late night of celebration.
First Returns Favor Obama
The very first returns are in and the news is not good for John McCain.
The traditional Republican strongholds of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location in New Hampshire opened their polls shortly after midnight. With 100% of the voters casting their ballots, the result is a landslide win for Barack Obama. In Dixville Notch, Obama won with 15 votes to McCain's six, and in the larger burg of Hart's Location, Obama bested McCain 17 to 10.
Not for nothing, but McCain's road to 270 actually depends on New Hampshire in most scenarios. But this canary done keeled over.
