Strategic Vision -- Santorum Down 12, Rendell Up 23

Strategic Vision released a second poll in a week on the Pennsylvania contest. I guess those silent voters still aren't talking, because Santorum's deficit has fallen to 12%, compared to the ten-point gap of a week ago. In the latest SV survey, 1200 likely voters said, in interviews taken between November 2 and 4, that 52% would pull Casey's lever, 40% Santorum's, and eight percent asked "What's a lever?". Last week, 12% were swtill clueless and the ones making up their minds all went to the challenger.

In the Gubernatorial race, Rendell's smackdown of Lynn Swann is approaching landslide proportions, with 58% in Fast Eddie's camp, 35% in Swann's, and 7% can't figure out how to get off the turnpike.

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Predictions

It is time to put up.

I privately set for myself this date to cast my lot for a couple of reasons, the main one being I leave town today for a business trip and will have uncertain access to The Internets over the next few days.

So here are my predictions for the 2006 midterms. Overall, the Dems end up with a 40+ seat majority in the House and a one seat majority in the Senate, including Lieberman.

I took a quick survey of the PA poliblogs today and didn't see any who had stepped up yet -- com'on folks, no fair holding back until November 6. Put it on the line today.

PA-SEN Casey by 11 +/-

I got lucky, the race that I have been following most, the PA Senate, is the easiest to call. In fact, I called it in August when I said Santorum will lose by double digits.

Note that I said "Santorum loses". Casey neither deserves nor earned the win and the Party will come to regret getting into bed with the likes of him. It was not necessary, except to the Governor who ensured that Casey kept his nose out of this year's Gubernatorial. A bucket of warm spit in business attire could have beaten Rick Santorum this year, and that's nearly what we got.

Santorum's approvals have barely reached above 40 all year. As a two-term incumbent, sustained approval ratings under 40 are a deadly harbinger -- it indicates an electorate primed for a change.

Santorum helped out the Democrats by making every step a miss. His first advertisement of the campaign tried to take Casey and the Democrats to task for the faux incident at his faux home. What he succeeded in doing was give the Democrats a chance to remind everyone that when Rick first ran for office, he attacked his opponent for living in Virginia and promised the he would never do such a thing, and then did; and that Rick demanded and got hundreds of thousands in tax payer money to home school his brood in Virginia. His claim of Casey complicity was seen through as political piffle by everyone with a second grade education, but even worse was his ridiculous claims of his children being threatened (600 miles away) and the stupid police complaint he filed -- in Virginia!!?? Now there's a campaign team that has earned the right to sit home in '08.

But, that was just for starters. Santorum & Co. then picked up two issues to hammer home -- one made-up, one make-weight. His made-up movement -- Islamic Fascism -- moved no one. The follow through was horrible -- Rick running about flapping his gums over Nazis and appeasement and telling voters if they vote for Casey, they die. It was, as the last popular President said, an old dog that wasn't going to work anymore. Moderates were laughing at him.

His second issue, immigration, was a different kind of scare out the vote tactic, and it also failed, miserably. Outside Lou Barletta's bigoted mind and town, Santorum's "brown scare" took root nowhere. It consistently scored below "other" in polls asking voters what issues moved them this year.

Oh, but then there were the attack ads. Santorum's first big attack advertisement of the campaign -- the guys in the jail cell -- had great production value. It also had so many lies and distortions that every media outlet in the State was yapping about it the next day. Coming on the heels of the Penn Hills faux home fiasco, which Santorum was made to look eight yards short of credible, the jail cell advertisement sealed the deal in the minds of the voters -- nothing Santorum would thenceforth say about Bob Casey was going to stick, they had already decided that Santorum was a liar, and a loser.

That's why the debates didn't matter -- no one watched them and those that did, if their minds were not already completely made up on Santorum's credibility, they received his words with caution, and a ton of salt. Casey got at least one thing right -- Santorum was desperate, and he looked and sounded the part.

Casey deserves almost no credit for winning this one. He thumbed his nose at democracy by refusing to get out and talk to people, to attend public campaign events, to debate early and often (most of those joint appearances were not debates), by refusing to answer direct questions on where he stands on issues, and by making sure that a third choice was not going to be available to the voters. He is not an original thinker, he has no leadership capability, and he has no personal charm. He is not going to be a Senator of which Pennsylvania will be proud. But, at least he is not Rick Santorum.

What a choice we had.

Rick Santorum -- just like George Bush, but without the intellect; or,
Bob Casey -- just like, well, Rick Santorum, but without the balls.

PA-GOV Rendell by 18+/-

I didn't give much coverage to this race. Mainly because it never was a race. A political novice, an ex-jock at that, going up against likely the best Pennsylvania pol of this generation. It was a done deal in May. Fast Eddy has been unnecessarily piling on, with advertisements, big regional money grants, and fundraising like you've never imagined. Not because he was ever in a race. He wants the big numbers behind him next week to show he's the player who can deliver Pennsylvania to the Dems in '08. Dick Cheney may be a shooting veep, Ed Rendell is shooting for veep.

US-HOUSE Key PA Races Dems +4

I only have a handle on a handful. These are the races I have been glancing at now and again:

PA-4, Melissa Hart (R)(I) over Jason Altimire (D)
PA-6, Lois Murphy (D) defeats Jim Gerlach (R)(I)
PA-7, Admiral Joe Sestak (D) torpedoes crazy Curt Weldon (R)(I)
PA-8, Pat Murphy (D), beats Mike Fitzpatrick (R)(I)
PA-10, Chris Carney (D), chokes off Don Sherwood (R)(I)

US SENATE

I don't want to call this one today -- but I scheduled today to make my picks so I shall.

Not so very long ago, I was preparing a piece taking certain so-called liberal bloggers to task for going with Casey as part of a take-back-the-Senate strategy. My argument was two-fold, (1) anyone could beat Santorum, especially a really, really, REALLY smart college professor who happened top be a REAL main-street Democrat, and (2) there was no chance to take back the Senate.

I was and am still correct on the first point, but reality has interfered with the second. The Senate is in play.

The close races are Montana, New Jersey, Missouri, Virginia, and Tennessee. The Dems need four of those five to take back the Senate.

In Montana, Democrat Jon Tester is taking on Republican incumbent Conrad Burns. Burns closed a double-digit gap, and the race remains in the margin of error. However, after the first poll in April, Burns never won another poll in this race. Big Sky country is ready for a change from the go along, get along, gimme money and power, politics of Conrad Burns. Jon Tester picks up a seat in the Senate for the Dems on November 7.

In New Jersey, "incumbent" Democrat Bob Menendez gave us a scare -- with the electorate partially and temporarily succumbing to Tommy Kean Junior's attack ads. Menendez has recovered nicely and is headed to a win there, preserving a seat for the Democrats.

In Missouri, Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill is giving Republican incumbent Jim Talent whatfor. She has led through much of the race, but the recent uproar over the Michael Fox advertisement and negative ads (which the local newspapers say make false charges) by Jim Talent have put this race in the dead heat category. There is also a pro-stem-cell research amendment on the ballot. Talent opposes stem-cell research, McCaskill and 53% of her fellow-voters, favor it. McCaskill wins this squeaker because on election day, the voters here will break for change. McCaskill turns a red Senate seat blue.

Virginia. Old Dominion was certain to send bigoted bully George Allen back to the Senate where he could do the most harm. But his true colors shined through one fine day when he decided to bully a young man of color, who happened to be toting a full-color video camera. Thank goodness for YouTube. It has been neck and neck since then. It is easy to understand the Virginia voters' dilemma -- do they send a bigoted bully back to Congress or elect a sexist pig to replace him? I think the good people of Virginia will decide that they'd rather support a sexist pig than a bigoted bully.

Webb, a former Republican who served as Secretary of the Navy in Reagan's White House, will take this one away from his former colleagues. George Allen, like Rick Santorum will have to give up his '08 Presidential fantasy, too. Thank GOODNESS for YouTube!

That is enough to give the Democrats 51 seats, which is good since it looks like Harold Ford will not pick up Bill Frist's abandoned seat in Tennessee.

US HOUSE

If you have to ask, you haven't been paying attention. Dems take control, going away.



Okay, you're turn, dear readers and fellow bloggers.

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Another New Poll - Santorum Down 12

If the election were held today, the flailing reelection campaign of Senator Rick Santorum would come crashing to an end with the incumbent losing to his Democratic challenger Bobby Casey Junior by 12-points (corrected). That is the conclusion of a new poll released today. The McClatchy/MSNBC Poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research gives Casey 51% and Santorum 39%, with ten percent unsure/other. This is a three-point increase over the 9-point deficit Santorum had in this poll's prior release in early October.

Poll respondents, surveyed by telephone between October 18 and 21, gave two-term Senator Rick Santorum a favorable rating of only 33%. His opponent, perennial campaigner and son of a dead governor, received an approval rating of only 44%. Casey's 28% unfavorable rating was far less than Santorum's 48% -- which summarizes why there is no room for Santorum to turn this around in the last two weeks. According to these numbers, nearly ten percent of respondents are voting for Santorum despite their negative feelings towrds him.

While Santorum is going to lose this election, the polling throughout the campaign clearly show that Casey Junior is not winning it -- he's merely the beneficiary of a widespread abandonment of Santorum and the failed Republican policies which he has enthusiastically supported over his two terms as Senator. According to this poll, 32% of the respondents are voting AGAINST someone in the Senatorial race. Unfortunately, the numbers released today do not break those responses down between Casey and Santorum supporters.

Over on the Gubernatorial side, Ed Rendell parlays his robust 57% favorable rating into a 21-point lead over ex-jock Lynn Swann. Fifty-six percent of poll respondents said that they would vote for the incumbent Governor, against only 35% support for Lynn Swann.

Respondents, by a wide margin, disapprove of the manner in which the Republicans have been running things. The President gets a 56% DISapproval rating from Pennsylvania voters, which includes a 46% STRONGLY disapprove number. Congress does even worse -- 63% disapprove of how the Republican-controlled Congress is doing it's job. Remarkably, only 1% strongly approve of Congressional performance. That's ALOT of Republican voters holding noses this midterm.

In the more-bad-news-for-Santorum department . . . .

+ Voters rank Iraq & Health Care as the top issues for them. Santorum's scare-out-the-vote message on immigration isn't exciting anyone, at 6% it ranks below "Other" as an issue of concern.

+ The Bush/Santorum Iraq policies are rejected by 60% of Pennsylvania voters. Even more -- 66% -- say that the Bush/Santorum economic policies have them worried.

+ Still MORE -- 69% -- aren't buying that the Bush/Santorum policies are making us safer -- they expect another successful terrorist attack in the United States.

Throughout the campaign, Santorum has blamed the media for his impending retirement from Government work. What this and all other polls from this past year demonstrate is that the fault lie not in the media, but in Santorum.

The Republicans control it all -- the failures of this Government are theirs. As the third-ranked Republican in Congress, Santorum, more than most, has direct personal responsbility for those failures. Now, he is being held to account for creating, supporting, and engineering failure.

Gee, Senator, I guess buying that "santorum2008" domain name (in 2004) was a mite premature, huh?

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New SV Poll, Santorum Down 7

In the new Strategic Vision poll out today, incumbent Senator Rick Santorum trails his challenger by seven points. While other polls have shown the undecideds moving to a candidate, this SV poll has the dunnos at 9% -- only a point less than last month's 10%. The SV poll was conducted by telephone between October 20 and 23. Last month the same poll put the difference at 10% and in August, it had the Senator down by 7.

In the Gubernatorial contest, SV gives the Governor at comfortable 20-point margin over his challenger, football player Lynn Swann. This is a two-point gain over last month and double the difference from August.

The respondents gave Bush low marks, with 60% disapproving of his over all job performance.

The poll has a solid respondent base of wackjobs, with almost one in five saying that the Foley scandal makes them more likely to vote for Republicans this year. On the same topic, only 12% thought the Republicans handled the Foley matter correctly and 58% think Hastert should step down over the affair.

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SV: Casey +9; WSJ: Casey +6; Survey USA: Rick 99th Worst

Well, we did say it would be a sad week for Rick Santorum.

The latest poll by Strategic Vision -- a Republican Pollster -- has no good news for the floundering reelection campaign of Pennsylvania's Junior Senator from Virgina.

SV's September 2006 Poll puts Casey at 50% and Santorum at 41% in a three-way with Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli (5%) (eeew, Santorum's not the only one who would shudder about such a three-way). A two-way race apparently sends the SV respondents into confusion -- Casey stays at 50%, Santorum drops to 40%, and all of Romanelli's supporters, and the defecting Santorum supporters, all fold into the 10% "idunno" category. This same poll gave Casey a six-point lead a month ago, pegging the Favorite Son's favorite son at 47% to Virginia's son's 41%. So I guess Santorum can tell his pillow "it's okay, I didn't go down".

This wasn't the Santorum team's game plan when they began spending their huge cash lead in August on television buys, soft image commercials, and lying, devious, attack ads. That's alot of money to spend and not gain an inch in nearly two months. Santorum can run on immigration, he can run on Casey's perennial campaigning, he can run on the subtle bigotry and irrational fear of Muslims, but he can't run from his record, which Pennsylvanians find dismal. The policies he supports are walking around the White House -- and EVERYone knows that. Pennsylvanians think Bush sucks (58% in this SV survey). Santorum's record is Bush's record, and that's broken.

Sliced with or without Romanelli, the meat of the Poll shows Casey winning this race handily.

The SV Poll puts Rendell comfortably ahead of the Republican challenger, Lynn Swann, 55% to 37%, despite 63% seeing Pennsylvania heading in the wrong direction. Hmmm, I wonder which party is in control of the Pennsylvania legislature . . . . oh, yeah, the Rs.

UPDATE 9/28/06: WSJ/Zogby Poll -- Casey up 6 Points

The Wall Street Journal/Zogby Poll released another set of figures today. According to this interactive online poll, Casey leads Santorum 45.8% to 39.8%. This represents a three-point drop for Santorum over the preceding WSJ/Zogby numbers and a one-point fall for Casey. The Poll was conducted between September 19 and 25. Your correspondent participated in the Poll. No other data is made available with these polls. They state that Carl Romanelli was part of the poll, but they do not give his numbers nor the undecided tally. The margin of error is 3.3%. The previous WSJ/Zogby poll, taken August 29 to September 5, had Casey at 47%.

Santorum 43%. Santorum continues to fall in every poll. In the last week, these are the polls we have seen:

Strategic Vision 9/28 Casey 50% Santorum 41%
Quinnipiac 9/26 Casey 51% Santorum 39%
Temple/Inquirer 9/24 Casey 49% Santorum 39%
Rasmussen 9/21 Casey 49% Santorum 39%
Keystone 9/21 Casey 45% Santorum 38%
Issues PA/Pew 9/21 Casey 52% Santorum 31%

Throwing out the 21 point Issues PA/Pew poll (because, we've never seen the actual poll results and it's a little out of line with the rest), the last six polls give Casey and average lead of 9 points. (N.B.: Where available, we used the three-way poll result.)

UPDATE II 9/28/06 -- SurveyUSA Releases September Approval Ratings for All US Senators

Look, we weren't kidding when we said this was gonna be a really, really bad week for Santorum.

Survey USA has released its latest Approval Ratings for All US Senators as of September 2006. Santorum is back down at the very bottom of the list, the 99th worst Senator in the United States, ahead of only Conrad Burns. A solid 53% say that they think Rick Santorum is doing a lousy job as their Senator.

This comes a scant month after the Virgina resident scored his highest approval rating in over a year (48%). This month's 53% number isn't as low as he's gone, though. That would be the 57% disapproval score he earned in May, 2006. But we have all the confidence in the world that Santorum can equal or "better" that 57% mark.

Independents (14% of respondents) trash the junior Senator with a 54% disapproval ranking; Moderates (39% of respondents) reject him with a 64% disapproval figure; Regular church goers (36% of survey), 50% disapproval, 45% approve; those never attending college (21%), give him thumbs down with 49% disapproval, 38% approval.


Mmmmmmmm, toasttt!

(PS from the "Ain't We Special Department" -- As near as we can tell, we were the first to bring you these three poll results.)

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Rendell's Approval Remains High

Here's why Lynn Swann isn't getting any traction -- the latest SurveyUSA numbers for Governors are out and Ed Rendell is in the top twenty with an impressive approval rating of 60%. That mark is near the 62% approval rating he scored in May, his best rating this year. His disapprovals are down to near their lowest level this year also -- at 37% in September, he's only one point off his low of 36%, hit a few times this year.

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New SV Poll -- Casey 47, Santorum 41, Romanelli 4

Strategic Vision just released its latest poll numbers and they confirm the Quinnipiac results earlier this week that the Green Party candidate just is not having an impact on the election. In the latest SV survey, in the three-way race, Casey gets 47%, Santorum 51 41%, Romanelli 4%, with 8% dunnos. Head to Head, Santorum stays put at 41% and Casey picks up one point for 48%. The seven-point Casey lead in the head to head match up is a three-point drop from last month's SV poll which gave Casey 50% and pegged Santorum at 40%.

On the approval ratings, Santorum's are virtually unchanged from a month ago. The August survey says 47% approve, 45% disapprove; last month it was 46% approve, 46% disapprove.

Interesting swing over on the gubernatorial side of the ledger. Last month SV's poll put the race at 49-36 for Rendell, with 13% undecided. Swann seems to have moved some undecideds his way. The August results narrowed the 13-point gap to ten, with Rendell at 51% (+2) and Swann at 41% (+5) and the dunnos at six points. Fast Eddie's favorables are up two points over last month, sitting at 49% this month, while Swann's approval dropped two from last month's 50%. The same 60% say the state is heading in the wrong direction. Swann could move up a bit with numbers like those (and with the extra cash Bush is helping him raise).

As with the SurveyUSA poll earlier this week, the Prez approval numbers are better, but still dismal. The August SV survey put Bush's approval at 32% versus 59% disapprove, up from last month's 26-64% split. Yeah, Pennsylvania still says "Bush sucks!".

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Anti-Slots Swann Hires Slots Lobbyist as Chief of Staff

The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review has checked out the background of Pennsylvania Gubernatorial candidate Lynn Swann's new campaign chief of staff and found some irony.

"Walter Breakell, of New York, was named campaign chief of staff on Friday and will oversee operations in Swann's Pittsburgh office beginning Monday", according to the paper. Breakell was formerly head of the New York office of DCI Group, a national lobbying concern. One of DCI's big clients is GTECH. From the Tribune-Review:

GTECH [is] a leading gambling technology and services company based in Rhode Island. GTECH is one of the companies licensed by the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board to manufacture slots machines for Pennsylvania's fledgling casino industry. Last year, the state Revenue Department selected GTECH to operate the central computer system to monitor activity at each of up to 61,000 slots machines in the state. It eventually would be the largest such system in the world. GTECH paid DCI $400,000 between 2001 and 2005, according to a lobbyist database maintained by the Center for Responsive Politics, a Washington-based nonprofit organization that tracks politically related spending. DCI's total lobbying income during that period was $11.5 million.

Slots casinos are to Swann's campaign what immigration is to Santorum -- an issue a desperate losing campaign hopes gets it noticed. The Swann team is apparently a little sensitive that the Tribune-Review picked up on the fact that Swann just hired someone who's last firm helped bring gambling to Pennsylvania:

Swann campaign spokeswoman Melissa Walters said "That's ridiculous. The only person that brought gambling to Pennsylvania is Ed Rendell."

Well, okay then.

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