Quinnipiac University has released the first poll of the Pennsylvania Senate Race since the Green Party candidate filed his nominating petitions. In a three-way race, Casey leads with 45% of respondents favoring the state treasurer, against 39% for the incumbent Senator. Carl Romanelli, the Green Party nominee, picked up 5% support. In Quinnipiac's prior poll, back in June, Casey had a 52% to 34% lead over Santorum. In the latest poll, 11% of the respondents are undecided or do not plan to vote.
While at first blush the Romanelli entry may seem to have affected Casey's numbers, the two-way results don't really bear that out. Quinnipiac asked respondents for their preferences if Casey and Santorum were the only choices. In that scenario, Casey's lead increases only one point -- 47% to 40%, with 13% undecided, not voting, or intending to write in. Casey's seven point lead against Santorum is an 11-point decline from the head-to-head results in the June Quinnipiac poll.
In a three-way, some of Romanelli's support clearly comes from Casey. Not all of it, not even most of it. Santorum goes up a point on the 2-man race, the undecideds/not voting go up 2 points, and Casey goes up 2. So an argument can be made that Romanelli slices 2 points from Casey and one from Santorum (go figure, those conservative soccer moms who are pro-choice maybe). The Greens have a net effect on Casey of -1. No big deal.
Casey lost those 11 points head-to-head all by himself. Fully 49% of the respondents told Quinnipiac that they do not believe that Santorum deserves to be reelected -- but Casey comes away with only 47% support in the head-to-head. A significant portion of Casey's support in the polls came from the 42% of respondents who said that they were not voting for Casey, but against Santorum.
The anti-Santorum factor shows up in Casey's continued low favorability ratings. His favorables remain below Santorum's. Only 26% say they have a favorable opinion of Pennsylvania's biennial candidate, versus 30% who say they look with favor on the junior Senator fromVirginia Penn Hills. On the other hand, Santorum's UNfavorables are twice Casey's. One-third of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Santorum, as against 14% who thought similarly of Bobby Casey Junior.
While it isn't even Labor Day yet, it cannot be comfortable for Casey to see his numbers declining in this way. Santorum has recently begun an intensive advertising blitz, and has managed to get Casey distracted by the Romanelli petition challenge.
With his favorables in the negatives, nearly fifty-percent wanting him out of office, and Pennsylvania voters giving President Bush record low marks, Santorum is still in a much worse position than Casey, and it would take some doing for him to pull this out. But with Casey himself having such low favorables, his policies being rather short on substance (his Iraq plan seems to be nothing more than a promise to ask (unspecified) "tough" questions), and such a large portion of his support being a vote against Santorum, Casey's lead is very soft. Tellingly, despite Casey having been on nearly every state-wide ballot for nearly a decade, 31% of the Pennsylvania respondents say that they don't know enough about Casey to form an opinion.
Casey may well have to decide to actually agree to a real debate (a joint appearance on MTP doesn't count as a debate -- with Russert it hardly qualifies as an interview). More important, he may finally decide to start talking about the issues with some substance instead of his normal pablum.
The next month will be very telling.
While at first blush the Romanelli entry may seem to have affected Casey's numbers, the two-way results don't really bear that out. Quinnipiac asked respondents for their preferences if Casey and Santorum were the only choices. In that scenario, Casey's lead increases only one point -- 47% to 40%, with 13% undecided, not voting, or intending to write in. Casey's seven point lead against Santorum is an 11-point decline from the head-to-head results in the June Quinnipiac poll.
In a three-way, some of Romanelli's support clearly comes from Casey. Not all of it, not even most of it. Santorum goes up a point on the 2-man race, the undecideds/not voting go up 2 points, and Casey goes up 2. So an argument can be made that Romanelli slices 2 points from Casey and one from Santorum (go figure, those conservative soccer moms who are pro-choice maybe). The Greens have a net effect on Casey of -1. No big deal.
Casey lost those 11 points head-to-head all by himself. Fully 49% of the respondents told Quinnipiac that they do not believe that Santorum deserves to be reelected -- but Casey comes away with only 47% support in the head-to-head. A significant portion of Casey's support in the polls came from the 42% of respondents who said that they were not voting for Casey, but against Santorum.
The anti-Santorum factor shows up in Casey's continued low favorability ratings. His favorables remain below Santorum's. Only 26% say they have a favorable opinion of Pennsylvania's biennial candidate, versus 30% who say they look with favor on the junior Senator from
While it isn't even Labor Day yet, it cannot be comfortable for Casey to see his numbers declining in this way. Santorum has recently begun an intensive advertising blitz, and has managed to get Casey distracted by the Romanelli petition challenge.
With his favorables in the negatives, nearly fifty-percent wanting him out of office, and Pennsylvania voters giving President Bush record low marks, Santorum is still in a much worse position than Casey, and it would take some doing for him to pull this out. But with Casey himself having such low favorables, his policies being rather short on substance (his Iraq plan seems to be nothing more than a promise to ask (unspecified) "tough" questions), and such a large portion of his support being a vote against Santorum, Casey's lead is very soft. Tellingly, despite Casey having been on nearly every state-wide ballot for nearly a decade, 31% of the Pennsylvania respondents say that they don't know enough about Casey to form an opinion.
Casey may well have to decide to actually agree to a real debate (a joint appearance on MTP doesn't count as a debate -- with Russert it hardly qualifies as an interview). More important, he may finally decide to start talking about the issues with some substance instead of his normal pablum.
The next month will be very telling.
3 comments:
I expect to see Casey's numbers drop even more when he debates Santorum. He's an ineffective speaker.
I think Casey will win, but it won't be a blowout.
Agreed. Too bad they didn't allow an open primary so we could have selected a leader with some real ideas, instead of this vacuous empty suit.
When Casey loses the Dumbacrats are going to claim Santorum stole the election.
When Lieberman wins they will claim the same.
Remind you of 2000?
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