Rasmussen: Casey 48 - Santorum 40

Election Polls 2006: Pennsylvania Senate

Rasmussen weighs in:

After having lagged by as much as twenty-three percentage points this election season, Republican Senator Rick Santorum now trails Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. by only eight, 40% to 48%.

Until now the incumbent has failed to pull within single digits of his opponent. Last month, Santorum suffered an eleven-point deficit in our poll, which he'd shaved from fifteen points in June. But Santorum had also been eleven points behind in March...a gap that in May more than doubled.

This poll has shifted Pennsylvania from “Democrat” to “Leans Democrat” in our Balance of Power summary.

Senator Santorum is still a point behind his best support level of the year. It's a slight dip in Casey's support that has allowed Santorum to draw as close as he is now. That dip might have something to do with recent ads attacking Casey's record as State Treasurer.

A third-party candidacy may also affect the outcome, with 5% of likely voters now supporting Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli. However, it’s worth noting that “some other candidate” attracted 5% of the vote in our previous Pennsylvania poll. Overall, it appears that the shift in the race results from declining enthusiasm for Casey more than any other cause.

Rasmussen makes two noteworthy points -- Romanelli's 5% isn't really affecting anything because that's the same number which has been consistently "other" in the last several polls and the narrowing of the race has more to do with "declining enthusiasm" for Casey. (One rarely sees the word "enthusiasm" in the same sentence with "Casey".)

Once again, Santorum is mired in the 40% zone. His three-poll rolling average in the Rasmussen poll is 39%, his average since March, 38%. In short, he really hasn't moved very much despite his heavy advertising over the last 8 weeks, and what Rasmussen calls his negative attack ads.

Which brings me back to what I said earlier this week and earlier this summer -- Casey's fear of defining himself during a decade of running for statewide office has left Pennsylvania decidedly "unenthusiastic" about this guy. I said the same thing when he was 20-something up in the polls -- he has got to do more than run as the anti-Santorum and vaguely promise to ask tough questions. He needs to engage the voters and Santorum.

It is still his election to lose. His declining numbers in the Rasmussen and other polls isn't translating into better numbers for Santorum. This means that he still has plenty of time to turn those with declined enthusiasm back his way. Of course, if he keeps doing what he's been doing, he also has plenty of time to hand Santorum a win when it should have been a cakewalk.