Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Yes. We. Did.

I expected it. For months, I've been sparking bar argument and encouraging GOTV workers with confident assertions of an electoral landslide for Barack Obama. When Pennsylvania was called for Barack, I opened the champagne, assuring the room that it was Game Over. When Oh. went for O., I wanted to kiss everyone in the room, knowing that 300+ was now a certainty.

But at 11:00:05, when the networks simultaneously called the race for Obama, I felt surprise and shock -- as if I had all along secretly expected that, somehow, they would take this from us also. My hands shook and the tears welled up. It wasn't that we finally were seeing the end to the darkest eight in our history, it wasn't that we were looking at an opportunity to undo so much. It was simple, and not so simple -- we had put a black man in the White House.

Yes. We. Did.

For the first time in so long I was truly proud of something my country had done.

I'm going to savor that for a little while. Then, it is on to the bitter hard work we have in front of us.

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Waddau Lookin At?

Here's a few things to look for tonight.

7pm -- polls close in Indiana, Virgina, and Georgia, among others.

If Obama wins Virgina, turn off the TV because there is no reasonable scenario for McCain to get to 270 without Virgina. McCain can win Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and still not get to 270 without Virginia. (The latest SurveyUSA poll of FLA LV, concluded yesterday, puts Obama at 50%, McCain 47%, with 1% undecided.)

If Obama also wins Georgia (which we are expecting), pop the corks because that means an Obama landslide.

We are looking for Indiana to go with McCain. If it ends up in Obama's column, it could mean Obama hitting 350 electoral votes by the time the West Coast polls shut down at 11 Eastern.

If the 7:00 polls all go with McCain, then it is on to Ohio at 7:30. I am looking for Ohio to end up in McCain's column, but it is a must-win for him and if the Buckeye state goes to Obama, it is lights out.

Then the big battlegrounds come in at 8pm -- Florida and Pennsylvania, as well as Missouri. McCain must take Florida and Pennsylvania to have shot at 270.

While we are expecting the conclusion to be writ before the 9 pm poll closings, if there's still life in the old man at 9:00, watch the results in Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and North Dakota. Obama should win New Mexico and Colorado, but if he adds either North Dakota or Arizona to his column, then you won't need to stay up for the final battleground closings at ten pm: Montana and Nevada.

I'm expecting an early night of poll-watching and a late night of celebration.


First Returns Favor Obama

The very first returns are in and the news is not good for John McCain.

The traditional Republican strongholds of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location in New Hampshire opened their polls shortly after midnight. With 100% of the voters casting their ballots, the result is a landslide win for Barack Obama. In Dixville Notch, Obama won with 15 votes to McCain's six, and in the larger burg of Hart's Location, Obama bested McCain 17 to 10.

Not for nothing, but McCain's road to 270 actually depends on New Hampshire in most scenarios. But this canary done keeled over.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

It's the Turnout, Stupid

A source inside the Pennsylvania Obama GOTV organization recently told me that their internals put the spread in the Commonwealth at under 3 points. {The latest SurveyUSA poll of PA LV, concluded yesterday, puts Obama up 52-43%, with only 1% undecided.)

Think the election is going to be decided by the undecided voters or the soft supporters of either candidate? Nope. The next President is going to be put in office by a very different group of people.


What will win the election is the Get Out the Vote work. The candidate who has the better ground game, who has more key counties or precincts organized, who has been spending the last few months identifying likely supporters, and the last two weeks making sure that they vote, is going to win the election.

An effective GOTV organization can make up as much as a six or seven point polling deficit. As you look at all those light blue or light red states, keep that in mind. Also keep in mind that, over the last decade or so, the Repugs have had the most impressive of GOTV mechanics.

This cycle, Obama has a number of things going for him to offset the usual GOP GOTV advantage. The first advantage Obama has is Hillary. She Who Must Be Nominated die Obama and the Dems a big, if unintended, favor. By hanging on until long after the issue was decided, Hillary forced Obama to build his organizations in many more states than he would have needed to start work in had Hillary been gracious in defeat. This played well in Obama's strength -- expanding the playing field.

Playing in the red put additional pressure on the Repug GOTV in those states -- which may be a little weaker than in other areas, since the Repugs haven't previously had to work to win those states in Presidential elections

Keeping the interest in the primaries going not until the last day, but until the very last day, also kept the Dems out in front of the electorate. In all of those late-primary states, the Democrats essentially were handed the opening statement in the trial against the Repugs, with little opportunity for rebuttal.

It also continued the massive new-voter registration drive that Obama and the Dems have masterfully put together this cycle. While it is beginning to look like new voters will not comprise much more than the usual ten or twelve percent of the electorate, the Dem skew looks to be very very heavy among the new voters.

Finally, early voting. Some estimates are that nearly one-third of the votes cast in this election have already been recorded through early or absentee ballots. Obama appears to have banked a substantial advantage among these early votes. Besides starting out the day with a ten or fifteen point advantage, the early voters also relive the burden on the Obama GOTV organizations -- allowing them to concentrate their resources on the remaining 70% who have not early voted. This thirty-percent increase in efficient use of resources helps the Obama GOTV even out the Repug advantage.


Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The Experience Canard

The Audacity of Desperation campaign has long featured slams against Senator Obama's purported lack of experience. Putting aside for the moment how General Powell expertly turned the experience issue against the McCain/Palin ticket, a reality-based examination of the facts shows Obama with more experience than most of the 42 men who have held the office. Not enough? then consider on foreign policy, he's got more experience than four out of the last five Presidents had when they entered office. Still not enough? Well, then consider that "experience" has been as much a predictor of failure as President as any other factor.

John Wilson recently took a look at the facts behind the Repug's experience cackles against Senator Obama. As Mr. Wilson put it: "there are two problems with the attack on Obama's inexperience: it isn't true, and it doesn't matter."

Because the MSM has decided that reviewing the facts is an inefficient way to cover this election, let's spend a moment first taking a look at Senator Obama's resume and experience.

He's a graduate of Columbia University, with a BA in Political Science. His concentration was in international relations and his senior thesis was on Soviet nuclear disarmament.

After Columbia, he worked for as a Writer/Researcher for Business International Corporation (now a part of London's Economist). There he analyzed overseas markets for multinational clients of the firm and wrote for the “Business International Money Report”.

From there, in 1984 he went to the New York Public Interest Research Group, a non-partisan organization that promotes consumer, environmental and government reform. At the NYPIRG, Obama organized student activists at City College in Harlem.

After spending a year at NYPIRG, in 1985 he moved to Chicago, where he became Director of the Developing Communities Project (DCP), a church-based community organization originally comprising eight Catholic parishes in Greater Roseland on Chicago's South Side. While director, he grew the DCP staff from 1 to 13 and their budget from $70,000 to $400,000.

In 1988, Senator Obama entered Harvard Law School. At the end of his first year, based on his grades and a writing competition, he became an editor of the Harvard Law Review. The following year, he was elected President of the law-review, a full-time position in which he supervised the publications 80 editors. During the summers, he worked as a summer associate at a couple of Chicago's prestigious international law firms. He graduated magna cum laude from Harvard in 1991

Following law school, in 1992, he ran Chicago's Project Vote. They registered 600,000 new voters under Obama. From there, the University of Chicago offered him a fellowship, which he used to work on the book that became Dreams of My Father. The fellowship morphed into a teaching position and for over ten years he taught Constitutional law at the law school.

For a portion of the time that he was at the law school, Obama also worked as a civil rights attorney with a Chicago law firm.

In 1996, Obama was elected to the Illinois Senate, in which he served for eight years. Among other things, he was Chairman of the Health and Human Services Committee.

One wouldn't know this from the "liberal elite" MSM coverage, but while in the state senate, Obama earned a reputation for achieving tough legislation by working in a bi-partisan manner. There, he led a successful bipartisan effort to pass the broadest ethics-reform legislation in 25 years, and gained bipartisan support for his successful bills reforming death penalty interrogations and ending racial profiling by police. He also worked with Republicans to reform welfare and sponsored successful bills expanding tax credits and child-care subsidies for low-income working families, protecting overtime pay for workers, expanding health care for children, and providing job skills training for juveniles.

From 1996 through 2002, Obama sponsored over 800 bills in the Illinois State Senate.

In 2004, Obama was elected to serve in the United States Senate. But even his Senate resume is obscured or mispresented in the MSM. In the Senate, he is a Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on European Affairs. He's visited 17 countries in those capacities.

In addition, he is a member of the Senate Committees on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, and on Veterans' Affairs.

Senator Obama shares responsibility for the bipartisan Coburn-Obama Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act of 2006, requiring full online disclosure of all entities receiving federal funds, and the bipartisan Lugar-Obama Cooperative Proliferation Detection, Interdiction Assistance, and Conventional Threat Reduction Act of 2006, deepening non-proliferation work with WMD and including surface-to-air missiles, land mines, and other weapons that may be used by terrorists. He also worked with Coburn to end the abuse of no-bid contracts in the wake of disasters.

Thomas searches of the 109th and 110th Congressional sessions reveal that, while in the US Senate, Obama has sponsored nearly 300 bills, and been a co-sponsor on nearly 1,000 more. (In the same period, John McCain sponsored a little more than half what Obama sponsored (about180 bills) and co-sponsored less than half of Obama's numbers (around 400).)

I'll bet even those of you supporting Obama didn't know some of this. For the life of me I can't understand why Obama hasn't used some of his small-donation fortune to publicize this impressive record.

So, how does all of this stack up against the troublesome world of fact?

In terms of experience in elected-office, Senator Obama's 15+ years in elective office puts him ahead of 22 of the 42 previous Presidents. Indeed, as Mr. Wilson points out, it gives him more experience in elective office than "that of Ronald Reagan (eight years as governor), Jimmy Carter (four years in state senate, four years as governor), Dwight Eisenhower (no political experience), and Harry Truman (10 years as US senator, one year as vice president)."

Counting only experience in Washington, Obama has more Washington experience than 20 of the prior holders of the office. In short, as Mr. Wilson puts it, "[i]n terms of his experience, Obama would be a typical president."

Foreign policy experience important to you? Well, Senator Obama has served on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee during his entire tenure in the Senate and has visited 17 countries in that capacity. He's got more foreign policy experience than four out of the last five Presidents -- More than Jimmy Carter, more than Ronald Reagan, more than Bill Clinton, and more than that miserable cretin now sullying the office.

That last bit may not be entirely fair -- as Mr. Wilson also points out -- the dry drunk now in office had the benefit of the advice from two Americans with the greatest of experience in foreign policy -- Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, and look how well that turned out.

So, the experience lie laid bare, how about this -- Wilson compared his review of the experience levels of former Presidents, with a recent evaluation of the success of those Presidential administrations. In 2005, the Federalist Society and the Wall Street Journal selected what they called an "ideologically-balanced" group of 130 prominent professors of history, law, political science and economics to rate the presidents. They then "adjusted" the results to reflect the ideological leanings of the respondents.

Of the top ten-ranked presidents from that survey -- 7 had less experience than Obama. And the worst? All of the five "failed" Presidencies -- the worst Presidents -- featured men with more experience in elected office than Senator Obama.

So, with the experience canard put to rest, maybe McCain and the repugs can start talking about something meaningful, something that is actually important, something with substance. But that's not likely to happen, instead we will hear about Ayers, and Wright, and the socialism canard, anything but reality. Because reality is deadly to Repug prospects.

Monday, September 29, 2008

I'm Voting Republican

Wednesday, July 09, 2008

The Audacity of Desperation

From the smell of the nascent General Election campaign, the Rove-inspired Repugs are trotting out the old reliables -- fear, personal attack, and deflection by deception. I suspect that this "Audacity of Desperation" (to coin a phrase) may become another irregular series here.

On of the latest is a riff by the evil queen of deflection by deception, Michelle Malkin. She all but labels the National Council of La Raza a bunch of racists. The NCLR is the largest, and arguably, one of the most respected Hispanic civil rights and advocacy organizations in the country.

In today's column, Malkin spews out "15 Lies About the NCLR". (Well, maybe it has a slightly different title, but my screen is already turning a brownish-yellow from going to that page and I don't want to turn back again.) Before turning to her bag of burning dogshit, she "explains" to us why the organization is borderline racist:

Only in America could critics of a group called "The Race" be labeled racists. Such is the triumph of left-wing identity chauvinists, whose aggressive activists and supine abettors have succeeded in redefining all opposition as "hate."

Both Barack Obama and John McCain will speak this week in San Diego at the annual conference of the National Council of La Raza, the Latino organization whose name is Spanish for, yes, "The Race."


Uh, no. Either Ms. Malkin is a lying moron, or believes her readers are gullible morons. (Either way, there be morons aplenty over there.) Anyway, as Ms. Malkin surely knows, the organization's name was drawn from the 1926 essay by Mexican philosopher José Vasconcelos called "La Raza Cosmica" ("The Cosmic Peoples"). In that essay, Vasconcelos proposed that the world was conglomerating into what he called a "fifth race" -- representing the commingled product of generations of inter-racial unions. He envisioned a resulting new world order, which he called Universópolis, from which a "new era of humanity" would emerge. Vasconcelos particularly referred to the Latino peoples of the Americas as being, not a single race, "but a conglomerate of races and types". Latinos, went his theory, carried the blood of most of the worlds peoples in their veins and were therefore particularly well-suited to participate in his imagined transcendence of the "old" order dominated by notions of race and nationality.

From this essay, and the concept of a peoples -- a humanity -- transcending tired notions of race by embodying the best of all of the mixed cultures which formed them over generations -- "La Raza" came to symbolize not a monolithic, separate race, but (as the NCLR site puts it) "the mixture inherent in the Hispanic people. This is an inclusive concept, meaning that Hispanics share with all other peoples of the world a common heritage and destiny."

But the facts are just too inconvenient to the desperate status that wingnuts like Malkin see when they look to November. So, instead of dealing with substantive issues, out of audacious desperation, they rely on the twisting of meaning to create something sounding racist out of a slogan drawn from a nearly 100-year old pamphlet trumpeting the coming displacement of racial purity with a humanity and order which moves beyond race itself.

Thursday, July 03, 2008

In CONGRESS, July 4, 1776

During the summer of 1776, in New York Harbor, British reinforcements began to arrive. Eventually, the fleet would number 400 ships, containing 32,000 British and German troops -- at the time, the largest invasion force the world had ever seen. Their mission was to join with the approximately 10,000 British forces, plus about 10,000 colonial loyalists, already in the Colonies, to crush the rebellion, and hunt down the leaders for execution. George Washington had a command of about 20,000 total troops, scant few of whom had ever seen battle, much less been the professional, trained fighting force which made the British militia the most powerful in the world.

At the same time, in a sweltering heat, knowing that the British were gathering their might on Staten Island, several dozen men gathered in a smallish room -- with the windows boarded over to prevent eavesdroppers -- and pledged to one another to sacrifice their lives, their fortunes, and their honor in support of the cause of Independence:

In CONGRESS, July 4, 1776.
The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America,

When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. -- That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, -- That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. -- Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do.

And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.



New Hampshire:
Josiah Bartlett, William Whipple, Matthew Thornton
Massachusetts:
John Hancock, Samual Adams, John Adams, Robert Treat Paine, Elbridge Gerry
Rhode Island:
Stephen Hopkins, William Ellery
Connecticut:
Roger Sherman, Samuel Huntington, William Williams, Oliver Wolcott
New York:
William Floyd, Philip Livingston, Francis Lewis, Lewis Morris
New Jersey:
Richard Stockton, John Witherspoon, Francis Hopkinson, John Hart, Abraham Clark
Pennsylvania:
Robert Morris, Benjamin Rush, Benjamin Franklin, John Morton, George Clymer, James Smith, George Taylor, James Wilson, George Ross
Delaware:
Caesar Rodney, George Read, Thomas McKean
Maryland:
Samuel Chase, William Paca, Thomas Stone, Charles Carroll of Carrollton
Virginia:
George Wythe, Richard Henry Lee, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Harrison, Thomas Nelson, Jr., Francis Lightfoot Lee, Carter Braxton
North Carolina:
William Hooper, Joseph Hewes, John Penn
South Carolina:
Edward Rutledge, Thomas Heyward, Jr., Thomas Lynch, Jr., Arthur Middleton
Georgia:
Button Gwinnett, Lyman Hall, George Walton

Wednesday, July 02, 2008

Happy Independence Day!! (No, I am not too early)

It is July 2, which means it is time for our annual tilt against the History you learnt.

This may be news to those of you not history majors (or my children, who had to listen to the story every year for the last 20+) -- but, the Continental Congress did NOT declare independence on the Fourth of July. That happened on July 2, 1776. (The vote was 12-0, New York abstained, courteously, whilst awaiting instructions.)

Richard Lee and John Adams arrived at the Continental Congress prepared to argue for independence, fully aware that those sentiments may not be entirely embraced by the gathering.

In early June, Lee proposed a resolution severing colonial ties to the British: "Resolved: That these United Colonies are, and of right ought to be, free and independent States, that they are absolved from all allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain is, and ought to be, totally dissolved." Adams seconded it.

Debate on the Resolution revealed a majority in favor, but a significant number of the colonies yet unsure or lacking appropriate instructions on independence. Congress was adjourned to allow time for the representatives to obtain instructions from their colonies and for lobbying.

In the meantime, anticipating adoption of the Lee resolution, a committee was conscripted to draft the argument for independence and the justification for what was, clearly, a treasonous and seditious act. In short, they were assigned to draft the Nation's first talking points memo.

Appointed were John Adams, Roger Sherman, Benjamin Franklin, Robert Livingston, and Thomas Jefferson. Franklin, concerned that Adams was a little too much the aggressive litigator, suggested that Jefferson put together a draft. The committee unanimously appointed Jefferson the scrivener. He produced a rough draft but first met with Adams and Franklin for their input. They made some changes to the document before it was sent to the committee, which approved it without further change.

Congress reconvened on July 1, 1776 and the Lee Resolution was adopted July 2, 1776.

It is thus on the Second of July, 1776 that the Colonies Declared themselves Free and Independent States. Adams famously wrote home how the date would be celebrated through history with picnics and fireworks:

The Second Day of July 1776 will be the most memorable Epocha, in the History of America. . . . It ought to be solemnized with Pomp and Parade, with Shews, Games,Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires, and Illuminations from one End of this Continent to the other from this Time forward forever more.

Immediately after adopting the Lee resolution and declaring independence from England, the Congress took up the Committee report. They reviewed, debated, and revised it in sessions on July 2, 3 and 4th. On the morning of the 4th, they adopted the Declaration of Independence.

IN CONGRESS, July 4, 1776.

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America,

When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.
He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:
For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:
For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences
For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:
For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.
He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.


It was sent to the printer the following day and the first signatures were affixed in August, 1776, when most members of Congress were present to sign the document. But the last signature would not be affixed for over five years.

So, you all go off and enjoy the Fourth. I'll be raising my glass(es) to Jefferson, Lee, Adams, Franklin and the rest of the gang today. (All this and more at the National Archives.)

(Dear reader with the long memory, you have heard this before and, if we are both around, will hear it again next July 2. You see, my children, who suffered a similar repetitive fate, are no longer at the breakfast table. It is not the same, but you'll do . . . .)

Update: Getting it Wrong

Okay, at least they are trying.

This morning, Yahoo's main page featured a reprint of an article by Greg Soltis of LiveScience.com, "When was the 4th of July First Celebrated?". In the article, Soltis states that state that "On July 2, 1776, Congress adopted the Declaration of Independence, signed only by Charles Thompson (the secretary of Congress) and John Hancock (the presiding officer). Two days later Congress approved the revised version and ordered it to be printed and distributed to the states and military officers. The other signatures would have to wait."

Two errors there. What was adopted on July 2 was the so-called "Lee Resolution" declaring the independence of the colonies. The Committee report (Jefferson's "Declaration of Independence") was then addressed in sessions on the 2nd, 3rd, and fourth. But the Declaration was not adopted by the Continential Congress UNTIL the Fourth, when it was sent to the printer.

Error number two -- we don't know if anyone signed anything on the 4th (but we DO know that NO ONE signed Jefferson's Declaration on the Second). It is possible that Hancock and the Congressional Secretary signed the document before sending it to the printer. But we will never know because that document has been lost. The printer worked all night producing the copies distributed beginning on July 5. Later in the month (after New York finally voted in favor of the Lee Resolution), the Congress ordered embossed copies of the document. THOSE were the documents signed. Hancock and Thompson (the Secretary), probably signed those in late July, but the bulk of the delegate signatures were affixed in August. The last signature didn't happen for another five years (there was a war going on and the British were hunting down the signers.)

This morning, at the end of the Morning Briefing on POTUS 08 on XM Radio, Tim Farley came on to promo his show, up next. In the course of the conversation, Farley said that Jefferson's Declaration of Independence was actually adopted on July 2. Wrong. See above.

There has been no reply to emails to Soltis and POTUS correcting their errors.

UPDATE:

Heard from POTUS -- Tim Farley says that he mispoke trying to make a play on words, and we'll give him that. It is quite a different thing speaking off hte cuff live from putting out a (supposedly) researched written article purportedly to correct an hisotrical misapprehension, and getting it wrong.


Thursday, June 26, 2008

Who said THAT?

An irregular new feature, wherein our lazy ass capitalizes on the sound work of others . . . .

Fearguth, one of my oldest pals on the internets, observes that "FISA" spelt backwards is "as if" and, it seems, that he's none too crazy about Obama.

That funny Liam kid goes Mitch Albom ten times better, among the FIFTY People he wants to meet in Heaven: "Ernesto “Ché” Guevera, You’ll know him; he’s the guy wearing a t-shirt with a picture of an NYU Freshman on the front."

The faithful Will Divide, who kept me on his very selective blogroll despite my lazy ass ways this year, presents another in his themed series on a dying breed (spolier alert):

"The internet is not killing newspapers. They are just too stupid and uncreative to survive in a radically changed environment. I keep thinking that someone will figure out that presenting good writing and reporting, bold graphics, useful content, and a sharp progressive political sense will induce urban core readers to buy a daily paper. Maybe not in the numbers of old, but more than enough to make money in a secure niche. But such notions of practical creativity are not taught in J schools, and the business side is too busy pulling its thinking down to understand stuff like than anyway."

Another patient, and long-standing, electron-friend is Blue Wren, recently returned to the keyboard herself after experiencing her own own medical issues (I guess we are entering that time, dear), takes us on a gastronomical field trip, including "a sizzling hot ground beef loaf the size of a slightly flattened softball, spiced and savory, and on top of it, a huge sunny-side-up egg. Surrounding the meat is a monster portion of potatoes, lard-fried crispy outside and soft inside (and salted liberally), and, as an afterthought, a small serving of reheated canned peas. You put your fork into the meat and out leaks creamy, melted goat cheese." Fortunately, she excuses us from having to deal with the peas.

Closer to home, over at Coffee House Studio, my friend with the tie-dyed apron examines the latest SCOTUS activist judicial decision (oh, excuse me, when the right wing of the Court does it, it is called advancing orignal intent).

Bernie
gets defamed.

Fellow alum, Neddie Jingo, has a go 'round with the WaPo, in which our hero's missive survives intact, despite threats later revealed as impotent.

Joe Bageant, a great writer with a worthwhile point of view, but bad judgment (he elected to tip his hat to Yours T. in his latest book), examines the Audacity of Depression:

"I am not kidding when I say rage fatigue victims have fallen into an ongoing mid-level depression. (Looks to me like the whole country has, but then I'm no mental health expert.) The less depressed victims can be found lurking near the edges of the Obama cult, consoling themselves that a soothing and/or charismatic orator is better than nothing. Obama may yet be borne through the White House portico by a Democratic host of seraphim, but he cannot do much without the consent of a bought and paid for Congress. Only George Bush can do that, and we can only hope God broke the mold after he made George. And like whoever else wins the presidency, Obama can never acknowledge any significant truth, such as that the nation is waaaaay beyond being just broke, and is even a net debtor nation to Mexico, or that the greatest touch-me-not in the U.S. political flower garden, the "American lifestyle," is toast. But then, we really do not expect political truth, but rather entertainment in a system where, as Frank Zappa said, politics is merely 'the entertainment branch of industry.' "

Gort takes a look at Luzerne County ding-dome antics, where everyone is shocked, shocked!, to learn that local judges and commissioners and their business partners might be making money on the side off the County taxpayers.

Okay,Here's the Deal

While not exactly working with a clean bill of health, it is not dirty either -- let's call it a tad smudgy.

But I miss the grumpy souls who stumble in and out of this place and need to make a determined effort to get back in the old swing. Thanks to those two guys who check in every now and then . . . now, hand me my old guitar, pass the whiskey 'round, want you to tell everyone you meet that the candyman I is back in town.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

This is for You, Mormon

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Hillary Wins The Racist Vote

Earlier this week, Bill Clinton blamed Obama for playing the race card before he denied saying that Obama played the race card.

Well, Bill Clinton may have played the race card before he didn't play the race card. But, his wife trumped the hand by winning the Pennsylvania Racist vote on Tuesday. The CNN exit polls show that 19% of voters on Tuesday admitted that their decision was based on race. Hillary picked up most of those votes.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Hillary: "The Tide is Turning"

Hope she's got a good boat, because I think the tide has turned:

Pennsylvania Polls


11/5/07 -- Clinton 48% Obama 15%
12/3/07 -- Clinton 43% Obama 15%
01/14/08 -- Clinton 40% Obama 20%
02/18/08 -- Clinton 44% Obama 32%
03/31/08 -- Clinton 47% Obama 42%
04/22/08 -- Clinton 54% Obama 46% (with 76% reporting)

Hillary parlayed a 33-point lead into an 8-point win. Impressive fold. Nationally, among Democrats, in the same period, Obama has moved 33 points, from 23 points down to ten points over She Who Must Be Nominated.

Hillary was handed the nomination on a presumptive platter, and (to mix the metaphor) couldn't close the deal.

I'm not sure what she is celebrating, but I think I see where the tide has indeed turned since November.

What to Watch Today in Pennsylvania

In a Pennsylvania contest pitting two Democratic powerhouses, one putting together a coalition of blacks and educated white suburbanites, the other counting on the support of white ethnic, union, and blue collar voters, the former can take the state in the right circumstances. How do we know that -- because that is exactly how Fast Eddie Rendell beat Sleepy Bob Junior in the 2002 Pennsylvania Gubernatorial primary. This year, Obama is relying on the same coalition that swept Rendell to victory, while Hillary is courting the Casey coalition. Ironically, but not unexpectedly, Casey is backing Obama and Rendell is stumping for Hillary.

Rendell took only ten counties that year -- but he took them by wide enough margins to offset Casey's middle and northeastern state strength. Philadelphia went to Rendell by a couple hundred thousand votes and he swamped Casey in the elite Philly suburbs, where he won nearly 80% of the vote. He also took the Allentown area of the state by a big margin.

Unfortunately for Obama, he hasn't been able to generate Rendell-like leads in those areas of the state this year. But there are two lurking issues that Rendell and Casey didn't have to deal with which could disrupt expectations -- the invisible seven percent and the disproportionate proportional award of delegates.

The Seven Percent Solution

Three months ago, the Obama forces began a voter registration drive in Pennsylvania. It wasn't as massive as the ones they mounted in other states, but it was significant enough. By the time the deadline to register came in late March, the Democrats in Pennsylvania found themselves with over 300,000 new party affiliates. County voter registration offices were overwhelmed by the response and it is only within the last few weeks that they managed to get the newly-minted voters on the rolls.

All those polls of registered democrats in the state -- you know the ones that have been showing a steady eroding of Hillary's once-20-point-lead down to the margin of error? Well, those polls were taken from a registration list that doesn't include those 300,000+ newly registered democrats.

That group, invisible to the pollsters, could make a significant difference in the results that we see today.

Why?

Well, for one, the new registrants are much more likely to actually turn out and vote, even in this year of the large turnout. Turnout, particularly in Philadelphia and the 'burbs is of particular importance to Obama as he works to cut into Hillary's mid-state strengths. Rendell succeed in '02 by pushing record turnouts in Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs.

For another, estimates are that the new registrants are breaking Obama at a clip well in excess of 60-40. Add to Obama's numbers 63% of the 38,000 new dems in the union and working class towns in the Lehigh Valley (Allentown/Reading), and you understand why Hillary and Bill have spent so much time there in the last few weeks. There are nearly 30,000 new dems in Pittsburgh, and almost 5,000 more in NEPA (Wilkes-Barre, Scranton) -- Hillary's Western and Eastern presumed strongholds. And in Obama's strength, Philadelphia, they added over 50,000 new Democrats.

The new democratic voters amount to about 7% of the expected turnout today -- keep that in mind when looking at the polls and their MOEs -- seven percent of today's voters were excluded from the polling pool. It might not amount to a new New Hampshire, but it could serve to explain why at the end of the day Hillary's expected ten-point-plus win winnows down substantially.

Disproportionate Delegate Scheme

In putting together the rules for this years delegate selection process, the Pennsylvania Democratic Party opted to award disproportionately more delegates to congressional districts that have gone democratic in the last two elections. This means that winning a reliably-democratic district will net more delegates than winning a similarly-sized republican district.

Not good news for Hillary as her strength comes mainly in the reliably-republican areas of the center and west states. Obama is more likely to win more of the reliably-democratic CDs than Hillary and, even if he does lose the popular vote by six, seven, or even eight points, he could walk away with more delegates -- or shave Clinton's net gain to meaninglessness.

Watch the Turnout

Rendell's victory over Casey in 2002 was based on overwhelming numbers -- huge margins in Philadelphia, 80% of the vote in the Philadelphia suburbs, and big wins in the Lehigh Valley. Polls don't show Obama with Rendell-like numbers in any of those areas.

But, a large turnout in those areas will help Obama threaten the Clinton-expectations. In Philadelphia, a large turnout early will be extremely significant as the African-American population there tends to vote later in the day. If the Philadelphia turnout is high by lunchtime, it could mean that Obama stands to post Rendell-like numbers there.

Obama could win this with high turnouts in key areas of the state. If you start to see numbers like 70% turnout in the Philly suburbs and 60% in the city, and high turnouts in the State College area (home of Penn State's main campus), and in Lancaster in South Central Pennsylvania, which has seen an influx of new residents from Philadelphia, Baltimore and DC, it could mean a surge of Obama supporters showing up to create a rough night for Hillary.

On the other side of the ledger, NE PA (Wilkes Barre, Scranton), Erie County, and Pittsburgh and surrounds, are Clinton counties and strong turnout here could favor her. (Careful here, though. Erie added almost 7,000 new democrats this year and Pittsburgh nearly 30,000.)

Wait for It

The early numbers should show a huge Obama lead -- if they don't, Obama is in for a rough night.

But don't jump to assumptions. The Central and Western counties in Pennsylvania are notoriously slow reporting and that is where Hillary is counting on to win this thing for her (apart from NEPA).

Early Night

This isn't going to be another New Mexico, though -- the results will be known relatively early, 9:30, 10 pm Eastern, at the latest.


Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Thanks, and Fair Warning

Thanks -- Many thanks to all who have inquired about the extended absence. It seems that my body just wanted to send me a note that I am not as young as I like to think I feel sometimes, and that perhaps I need to start acting my age. It was quite scary for a few hours, but within a day all seemed nearly normal.

And fair warning -- After a brief hospital stay (including an $18,000 6-hour ER visit -- still wonder why we need universal single payer health care insurance?), and some extended time getting my energy back, I am now approaching 100%. So, I expect to be back here publishing knee-jerk cranky observations with regularity within a week or so. I am very pleased to report that there are no apparent residual effects and my doctors deny that I was even a candidate for this little event.

And the good news -- Baseball is back!

In the meantime -- One of my convalescent readings was a collection of English-language poems. This one, by Sigfried Sassoon struck my fancy around the time that the Despicable Cretin's death toll approached 4,000:

I KNEW a simple soldier boy
Who grinned at life in empty joy,
Slept soundly through the lonesome dark,
And whistled early with the lark.

In winter trenches, cowed and glum,
With crumps and lice and lack of rum,
He put a bullet through his brain.
No one spoke of him again. . . . .

You smug-faced crowds with kindling eye
Who cheer when soldier lads march by,
Sneak home and pray you'll never know
The hell where youth and laughter go.

(More war poems by Sasson here)

Scran'en Hacks Out of Running for Pocono Paper

It is with a glad heart that I can now give an update to this report that the piece o' crap newspretenda in Scran'en was ogling the Pocono Record.

It appears that the ethically-challenged and journalistically-clueless clowns in the 'lectric city realized that their meager talents were matched by their meager wallets. They fell far behind in the bidding for the Pocono Record and officially "moved on", not doubt to find other newspapers to destroy in their tireless quest to export Scran'en mediocrity.

Yay!

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Bush and Economy Sinking Together

The Fed is expecting slower growth, higher unemployment, and more inflation. The announcement today comes on the heels of two approval polls showing the President with (you pick 'em) 65% or 77% disapproval ratings, driven mainly by extreme displeasure with Bush's handling of the economy.

Well, at least the Repugs have nominated a candidate with strong economic cred . . . oh, wait.


A mere 19% of Americans approve of the way that the Despicable Cretin is handing his job, according to an American Research Group poll released today. (h/t to Spork in the Drawer)

The ARG Poll of 1,100 was conducted by telephone between February 16 and 19. The economy seems to be driving the numbers even lower, as only 14% or respondents approved of Bush's handling of the economy. (And, that was before the Fed said that things are about to get a whole lot worse.)

A Gallup Poll also released today says that 65% of respondents disapproved of the way Bush was handling his job. That poll was conducted by telephone of about 1,000 adults between February 11 and 14.

McCain must be feeling pret-ty good about now . . . .

Superdelegate Anxiety

Last night, Obama convincingly punctured the coalition of women, blue collars, older voters, and the non-college-educated, which had formed the core support for She Who Must Be Nominated. As Obama threatens the "inevitable" Clinton nomination, attention shifts to the automatic delegates -- the unpledged party regulars who make up about 20% of the convention delegates.

Last evening's results make it certain that the neither Obama nor SWMBN will secure the delegates needed to win the nomination through the primary system. It is also apparent that Obama will march into Denver in August having won more states, ahead in the popular vote, and with more pledged delegates than Hillary. The perceived threat is that the "superdelegates" would support the "designated" candidate of the party establishment and "overturn" the choice of the rank and file.

Nonsense. The 2008 convention can not be a rerun of 1968.


In 1968, when less than 30% of the public supported an unpopular war, the party bosses handed the nomination to a candidate who supported the war policies and had not only failed to win a single primary, but who had secured less than 5% of the popular vote.

But, back then, candidates didn't need the primaries to win the nomination. In 1968, only about a dozen states held primaries. In the remainder, the party delegates were mostly selected by the state committee and their votes controlled by one, or sometimes a small number of, party bosses.

After the assassination of Bobby Kennedy, the leading anti-war candidate was Gene McCarthy, who had won more primaries than any other candidate and was leading all candidates in the popular vote. But, before the convention, Hubert Humphrey, Johnson's vice-president and a supporter of the war policies of the Johnson administration, had secured enough delegates to obtain the nomination and didn't have to participate in the primaries. At the time of Kennedy's death, Humphrey was leading in the delegate count despite having ignored the primaries.

In 2008, when every state has a pre-convention delegate-selection process, the ability of the party bosses to select a nominee despite the outcome of the primaries is virtually eliminated. The superdelegates become relevant only where, as this year, no candidate comes to the convention controlling a majority of the pledged candidates and at least two are within about 800 votes of majority.

The superdelegates are party regulars, there are hundreds of them. Unlike 1968, when literally a handful of party bosses controlled the majority of the convention delegates, no one of them controls a significant number of votes. Instead, these party regulars and long-time party activists, are relatively free to make their own decisions.

They will, and should, make their decision based on their personal evaluation of which candidate would be best for the party, and the country. Essentially, one can reasonably expect their votes will go to the candidate that they believe is best positioned to lead the party to the overwhelming November victory that is apparently in the grasp of the Democrats.

If the nomination is not decided by the time of the convention (which is unlikely), the superdelegates are going to do the politically expedient thing -- go with the candidate who strides into the convention with the greater momentum, with the greater national support, with the greatest chance of taking back the White House. And that is exactly what they were designed to do -- they were not meant to be a modern-day equivalent of the party bosses who handed the party a disaster in 1968.

So, make yourself easy. It is unlikely that the superdelegates will be called on to decide this thing (in this little corner, we think it can be decided before the Pennsylvania primary). If they are, remember that they are lifetime Democrats and political activists. Their imperative is to put a Democrat in the White House and not one of them is going to vote for a person who they don't believe can do that.

(There's a pretty good list of the current status of the superdelegate endorsements at the 2008 Democratic Convention Watch blog.)

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

MLB's Glass Ceiling -- Woman Ump Tossed

Back in March of last year, MLB was all about promoting the fact that they were "permitting" long-time minor league umpire Ria Cortesio to work the final major league spring training game of the year. Dutifully, your inconstant correspondent reported, not without a little sarcasm, the announcement.

As we noted at the time, normal umpire progression would have seen Ria in the bigs by the 2007 season. Her seniority placed her next in line for a AAA position, which is under the jurisdiction of Major League Baseball. But, MLB made sure that wouldn't happen -- to her slight surprise, she was released soon after the World Series.

Her mask made it to the Hall of Fame, but MLB apparently has no interest in seeing women invade their turf -- even as umpires. Wouldn't do for Roger Clemens to get squeezed by a woman, now, would it?


Photo Credit: Ria Cortesio, from her Friendster Photo Album.

Monday, February 18, 2008

Preview of a Hillary Presidency?

I hope not.

Whilst idling away my life and not contributing here regularly, I've been thinking about Hillary. Now, as anyone left who still regularly checks in with this spot is aware, I have never been a big fan of Bill or of She Who Must be Nominated. That said, over the last couple of months she has caused me to soften my attitude towards her. However, the recent shuffling of her campaign hasn't helped me shed the nagging notion that she remains something of a mirror image of what we've been looking at for the last seven years. It is a theme I've babbled about before.

Think of the history of the Despicable Cretin's Administration and what comes to mind? Well, many things, I admit. But high up on any list is mediocrity at best, incompetency at worst, in nearly every agency and key administrative post. Bush's fear of anyone who doesn't "owe" him, who hasn't proved their loyalty to him, his use of appointments to reward loyalists and friends, has given us a goivernment that prizes ideological consistency, personal loyalty to the Despicable Cretin, over talent, insight, and ablility.

Show me a failure, large or small, from Katrina to the books selected for sale at the National Parks, and I'll show you a friend of George.

Hillary, too, has a penchant for keeping her friends close around her, and rewarding their loyalty with key positions. While it is important that the campaign leadership have a close working relationship with the candidate, the candidate who allows friendship, loyalty, and a desire to reward, blind her to merit, talent and performance, runs a risk of failure.

And, the Hillary has seen its share. They were organizationally unprepared for the caucus states, they failed to budget to the point that, despite enjoying an historic war chest, their funds were so depleted that the candidate had to loan the campaign five million bucks to survive January. Not to mention that the campaign message changes faster than the specials at the diner that Hillary visited the other day when the campaign had no backup plan in case the February weather in Wisconsin interfered with their plans one day.

The campaign has been unable to solve Obama; has let Bill Clinton marginalize himself because they had no clear strategy for using him -- suddenly pressing him into service only after the Iowa loss. They seeming had no strategy in place after February 5th, when (as they have been telling everyone for over a year) they expected to have this thing wrapped up. As a result, they've backed themselves into a Guiliani-like corner by making Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania must-win-bigs.

The vaunted (and over-rated) Clinton political machine has had a seat in the center ring as the "neophyte" Obama organizations has run its rings about her.

One hopes that Hillary, if she is the eventual nominee (and it still looks like hers to lose from this little corner), takes a lesson from the failures of the campaign and concentrates on quality, experience, demonstrated talent, when it comes time to fill all those appointed slots in 2009.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Louis "Alleged" DeNaples Indicted; Slots License Pulled

Louis "Alleged" DeNaples, owner of the Poconos Mount Airy casino, was indicted today for lying about his ties to organized crime. (And, even that piece of crap wannabe paper in Scran'en had to take notice.) The Gaming Board has already suspended his license but is permitting the Casino he owns to continue to operate.

Friday, January 18, 2008

PA House Republicans Looking to Increase Taxes on Individuals

The Pennsylvania House of Representatives has once again taken up the issue of school real estate taxes. Debate will resume when House members return to session on Monday, January 28.

The central bill under consideration is House Bill 1600, sponsored by Representative David Levdansky (D-Allegheny). This legislation is intended to reduce school property taxes substantially without broadening the sales tax base; however, Representative Sam Rohrer (R-Berks) will offer an amendment to that bill which will expand the sales tax to professional services.

But, somewhat ironically in a bill intended to reduce the tax burden on individuals, Rohrer's bill will exempt businesses from the new tax on professional services. So, businesses that need to hire a lawyer, for example, will not have to pay the sales tax. But, everyone else, that is to say, you and me, who might need, say, a lawyer for criminal, divorce, custody, estate, personal real estate issues, etc., will be subject to payment of the sales tax. (Representative Rohrer's original piece of property tax reform legislation, upon which the amendments are based, is HB 1275.) (Oh, yeah, contingent fee (personal injury) cases are also excluded.

Taxpayer groups (umm, real-estate-tax-payers groups), are putting much pressure on House members to accept the Rohrer amendment. To contact your rep and voice a concern over this latest attempt to impose a penal regressive tax on the middle and lower classes, you can use the House email list.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Having Fun Yet?

Your erratic correspondent may have been away from the keyboard, but he has been keeping an eye on the goings. This aging body hasn't seen the likes of this season since possibly, and briefly, the tragic 1968 campaign. Even then, many fewer eyes were focused on the contest, and even they had not bothered to turn their gaze until much, much later.

It's probably fair to say that more people have cared longer about the 2008 contest than any ever before. While a large part of the interest is issue-driven, I am crediting something else entirely -- if not the re-bloom of democracy, at least the whiff of its flower. The popular interest has been there through polls suggesting the leading issue to be Iraq, and then Health Care, and then Iraq, then Health Care, and now (and likely through November) the economy (it's always the economy). These critical issues, addressed with some certain measure of difference by the two parties, has no doubt contributed to the unprecedented long attention span. But there is more needed to explain the continuing attention.



With no heir apparent on either side, the field was wide open for the likely (Hillary and Rudy) and the unlikely (Huckabee and Obama). The result has been an engaged and engaging debate over policy and procedure in both parties. Sure, each side has an ideological touchstone, but creative and new solutions have been served up by those who have come and gone over the last two+ years.

Both parties offer something approaching real dialogue about ideas, and actual debate over world-views. The overall quality of the campaigns are higher than we generally recall, and the depth of the respective fields is surprising. Paul, Kucinich, Huckabee, Biden, Richardson, Hunter, are all articulate advocates on the issues they have made their own and they have all moved and lifted the debate, in sometimes small and in sometimes larger ways, over the last year. The lower tier candidates have excited significant portions of the populace (including many new to the process, young and old), challenged the "designated" candidates, and expanded the scope of the discussion. (Except for Gravel), it has therefore been unfortunate that some of them they have been sliced off the debate stages.

Personally, I'd rather see Obama or Edwards on the Democratic ticket in November. But there was something exciting about the results in New Hampshire. You can count me among the doubters of Omentum. I fully expected Hillary's superior, more experienced organization, to pull out of the apparent nosedive of the last two weeks. I have, reluctantly, suggested that the calendar may well be too short for She Who Must Be Nominated to be stopped.

How and why did New Hampshire happen? I dunno. (But I find it interesting that, among all the explanations that are being thrown around out there, no one is looking into the possibility that the polls were fubar.)

That said, I'll direct you to her GOTV machine. Her performance in NH shows what a highly-experienced team can do in a close contest -- and make no mistake, Hillary's team has been doing this, mostly for a Clinton, for a few decades now. Hillary and Bill know the routine, and know NH, in ways to which the most savvy of the Obama team can only aspire.

Hillary knew where her strength lay. That's why we saw women and middle-class labor voters driven out to the polls in huge numbers by the Hillary GOTV team.

Now it is off the the South and West. Much different voter profiles in both and different mixes of candidate appeals. Out West, will Bill Richardson be a factor? He may well and, if does make an impact, I'd have to guess that his support will be drawn from Hillary.

Keep in mind, also, that Obama lost among registered Democrats in both Iowa and NH -- his support came from cross-overs and independents. Between now and February 5, there are far fewer states which allow crossing-over or who give independents a voice.

In the South, what can Edwards do? The only rationale for Edwards remaining in the race is not to win it -- but to show enough strength in the South to allow him to insist on a role at the convention. I haven't studied the cross-tabs on this, but I would speculate that Edwards will draw from Obama more than Hillary.

The interplay and possibilities are endless, and that's what makes it fun (and I haven't even gotten to talk about the complications on the other side). Having a two and a half-headed contest, for at least another three and a half weeks, can only serve to continue to refine the Democratic message, upgrading the discussion, pulling in more first-time participants in the process.

So, if you're not having fun, well, hope you're enjoying Skating With the Stars . . . the rest of us will let you know how it plays out.

Saturday, January 05, 2008

Of Heroes and Kings . . . .

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Smoke, Meet Fire: State Charges DeNaples Priest with Perjury

The Scranton Catholic Priest who testified on behalf of Louis "Alleged" DeNaples was arrested today on charges of lying to the Grand Jury investigating DeNaples. According to AP reports, Joseph Sica, the priest, was charged with lying to the grand jury when he testified that he didn't have a relationship with mob boss Russell Bufalino.

Photo Credit: "Alleged" DeNaples and Sica, Pocono Record file photo