A source inside the Pennsylvania Obama GOTV organization recently told me that their internals put the spread in the Commonwealth at under 3 points. {The latest SurveyUSA poll of PA LV, concluded yesterday, puts Obama up 52-43%, with only 1% undecided.)
Think the election is going to be decided by the undecided voters or the soft supporters of either candidate? Nope. The next President is going to be put in office by a very different group of people.
What will win the election is the Get Out the Vote work. The candidate who has the better ground game, who has more key counties or precincts organized, who has been spending the last few months identifying likely supporters, and the last two weeks making sure that they vote, is going to win the election.
An effective GOTV organization can make up as much as a six or seven point polling deficit. As you look at all those light blue or light red states, keep that in mind. Also keep in mind that, over the last decade or so, the Repugs have had the most impressive of GOTV mechanics.
This cycle, Obama has a number of things going for him to offset the usual GOP GOTV advantage. The first advantage Obama has is Hillary. She Who Must Be Nominated die Obama and the Dems a big, if unintended, favor. By hanging on until long after the issue was decided, Hillary forced Obama to build his organizations in many more states than he would have needed to start work in had Hillary been gracious in defeat. This played well in Obama's strength -- expanding the playing field.
Playing in the red put additional pressure on the Repug GOTV in those states -- which may be a little weaker than in other areas, since the Repugs haven't previously had to work to win those states in Presidential elections
Keeping the interest in the primaries going not until the last day, but until the very last day, also kept the Dems out in front of the electorate. In all of those late-primary states, the Democrats essentially were handed the opening statement in the trial against the Repugs, with little opportunity for rebuttal.
It also continued the massive new-voter registration drive that Obama and the Dems have masterfully put together this cycle. While it is beginning to look like new voters will not comprise much more than the usual ten or twelve percent of the electorate, the Dem skew looks to be very very heavy among the new voters.
Finally, early voting. Some estimates are that nearly one-third of the votes cast in this election have already been recorded through early or absentee ballots. Obama appears to have banked a substantial advantage among these early votes. Besides starting out the day with a ten or fifteen point advantage, the early voters also relive the burden on the Obama GOTV organizations -- allowing them to concentrate their resources on the remaining 70% who have not early voted. This thirty-percent increase in efficient use of resources helps the Obama GOTV even out the Repug advantage.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
It's the Turnout, Stupid
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Democracy, Use it or Lose it
-- Bob Weir, before leading the band into a rousing version of U.S. Blues to cap a three hour show at the Sherman Theatre, Stroudsburg, Penna., Nov. 6, 2006.
Lyrics: Robert Hunter
Music: Jerry Garcia
I'm Uncle Sam, how do you do
Gimme five, still alive
Ain't no luck, I learned to duck
Check my pulse, it don't change
Stay seventy two, come shine or rain
Wave the flag, pop the bag
Rock the boat, skin the goat
Wave that flag, wave it wide and high
Summertime done come and gone, my oh my
I'm Uncle Sam, that's who I am
Been hiding out, in a rock and roll band
Shake the hand that shook the hand
Of P. T. Barnum and Charlie Chan
Shine your shoes, light your fuse
Can you use them old U.S. Blues
I'll drink your health, share your wealth
Run your life, steal your wife
Wave that flag, wave it wide and high
Summertime done come and gone, my oh my
Back to back, chicken shack
Son of a gun, better change your act
We're all confused, what's to lose
You can call this song the United States Blues
Wave that flag, wave it wide and high
Summertime done come and gone, my oh my
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
Non-Partisan GOTV Campaign
From e-robin:
You Don't Have to Live in PA to Get in on Some Midterm-Season Fun
PA Action, working with Women's Voices Women's Votes and US Action, is working a non-partisan campaign on the phones and on the ground to turnout likely progressive female voters this election. You've probably read about WVWV over at MyDD. As Matt said in that post:
Right-wingers have two giant fears. The first is if evangelicals stop voting, as they did from the 1920s until the late 1970s. The second is if single women start voting.
That second part is our plan and you can help from the comfort and convenience of your home. We need four hundred people to each call one hundred names on our list. That's about two hours of work per person. Trust me, it goes by more quickly than you may imagine. The script is short and direct. The focus voters are people we need to get to the polls if we want to see some change in the direction this country. Please make the jump and find out how you can spend a couple of hours helping to get this country back on track.
Thanks! Here's what you do:
1. Please remember that this calling is non-partisan. We aren't encouraging anyone to vote for any candidate in particular. We are working on turning out women who are likely progressive voters.
2. Go to PA Action's page at Pop Vox.
3. Register to make calls.
4. Login
5. When you are ready to make calls, click on the Make Calls link.
6. Select a campaign. You can choose between Bucks and Delaware Counties.
7. Click MAKE CALLS
8. Enter the phone number you are calling from. The system will call you and from the time you answer, you don't need to touch the phone again. In fact, I hooked up an earpiece because I kept hanging up after I talked to voters, which disconnected me from the system - no good. It's a hard habit to break if the phone is in your hand.
9. Your phone will ring. when you answer it, you'll hear music until you click "Ready for Call." Then Pop Vox will look for a voter for you to talk to. Please be ready to go as soon as you hear the beep otherwise there's an annoying delay on the voter's end.
10. When you get a voter, read the script and get the answer to the question, which is: Do you plan to vote on November 7?
11. Do not hang up the phone! Click "End Call."
12. Fill out the response fields.
13. Click "Save Call."
14. Click "New Call."
15. Click "Ready for Call" and the whole process starts over again.
Two hours. 100 voters. Help bring real change to southeastern PA and the country.
