Hillary, meet Hillary

Continuing our lazy-ass ways, here's another video.



(A bite 'o the hoagie to Media Lizzy)

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Gore Beats the Field in Michigan

Michigan voters prefer Gore, Thompson. Meanwhile, Hillary is preparing to fight the next war.

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Edwards Beneficiary of Hillary NH Slide

Hillary's double-digit lead in New Hampshire has eroded substantially since February, while John Edwards has moved closer, according to the CNN/WMUR poll released tonight.

Hillary's 35% support in February fell to 27% in the most recent survey, while Edwards moved up 5 points, to 21% support, from his 16-point showing a couple of months ago. Obama remained relatively immobile -- picking up 20% support in tonight's results, compare to 21% from February. The only other Demo in double digits was Al Gore, who polled at 11%, up from 8 in February. Gore trailed "Don't Know" by a point. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson moved from one point to 4%.

The poll of 339 likely Democratic primary voters, conducted by the University of New Hampshire between March 27 and April 2, asked voters to also name the Democratic candidate that they liked the least -- at 17%, Hillary placed second (well behind Al Sharpton at 32%). Edwards was at the bottom of that list, at 2%, with Obama at 4%.

The poll shows that Edwards' work in the state is paying dividends -- in addition to his rise in the poll, his favorables are up over the February poll. Hillary is the victim of her own strength -- with nearly universal name recognition, she had little room to move up and little opportunity to have that "conversation" she used to talk about. If people believe that they know all they need to know about you, it gets harder to get them to listen to you. Her waffling and vaguesness on Iraq didn't help her there either. Nearly 4 in 10 respondents said that the war was the number one issue on their minds this primary season. Her favorables in the state declined 10-points from February (74% to 64%) and her unfavorables rose from 15% to 24%.

Earlier today, Edwards learned that his Iowa organization is also apparently doing its job. A statewide poll conducted by the University of Iowa put Edwards up 34% to Hillary's 28% among among Iowa's likely Democratic caucus goers. Yet, among registered Dems as a whole, Hillary had a slight led 29 to 26%. Of course, the support is not worth much if they don't get out to the caucusses and Edwards' crew has apparently better targeted teh likely voters.

In the media:

WMUR: Poll Shows Democratic Race Tightening Up
Boston Globe: Edwards surging as race among Democrats tightens in NH
NY Sun: Edwards in (Kind of) Second Place in New Hampshire
CNN: Clinton slips, Edwards climbs in New Hampshire poll
NewsMax: Hillary Leads in New Hampshire: Poll
Iowa City Press-Citizen: Poll shows Edwards, Clinton, Giuliani, McCain leading in Iowa
AHN: Edwards Leads In Iowa Caucus Poll; Democrats Win Overall
RCP: New CA, IA and NH 2008 Polls
Des Moines Register: Edwards crowd zeroes in on issues
NY Post: Hill's Slide is Edwards' Gain in Critical NH
Union Leader: Clinton slips, still leads in latest poll

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Edwards Staying In It.

John Edwards announced today that, despite the reappearance of Mrs. Edwards' cancer, their campaign for the Democratic nomination will continue.

Scary line from the Times coverage: "Mr. Edwards said because the cancer had moved from her breast to bone, it was no longer curable, but treatable".

Couldn't have been easy hearing that or making the decision. Tough couple.

In the media:

NY Times: Edwards: ‘The Campaign Goes On’
ITV: Edwards Pulls Presidential Campaign (that's an "oops")
NPR: Wife's Illness Won't Halt Edwards Campaign
WaPo: Edwards Says Wife's Cancer Has Recurred


(Photo Credit: NYTimes, Ellen Ozier/Reuters)


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Obama Bests Hillary vs Republicans in New Hampshire Poll

From Political Grind:

BOSTON – A telephone poll of likely New Hampshire voters, conducted by Suffolk University students from February 24-28, 2007, revealed top Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are statistically tied for the lead among Democratic voters in the Granite State. Republican candidate Rudolph Giuliani had a 10-point lead over John McCain, his nearest rival. The results of the poll were officially announced today.

The poll revealed thatDemocrat Obama would defeat Republican Mitt Romney in a head-to-head match up and tie McCain and Giuliani, while Clinton would only defeat Romney. Republican front-runner Giuliani defeated Democrats Clinton and John Edwards in a head-to-head match up and tied Obama.

The survey of 500 Democratic, Republican, and Independent voters likely to vote in the 2008 presidential election found that Hillary Clinton’s unfavorability rating of 48% was the highest unfavorability rating of any candidate.

There's more.

The poll was conducted by Suffolk University. Crosstabs here.


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John Edwards "Conversation" Tonight

Edwards has announced a live video conference for this evening at 9:30 (Eastern). From his announcement:

Like many of you, I watched the State of the Union last night and heard more of the same at a time when we need fundamental change.

Rather than honest assessments and a vision for the future, we got rationalizations for the failed policies of the past -- and small ideas that won't make a difference in the lives of working Americans.

But if Washington can't face reality and go big, then it's up to us to show the way. The next president must do more than simply undo this president's mistakes - the next president must offer a vision to transform America in the 21st century. The American people are ready for something fundamentally new.

We should be talking about the great things we can do for our nation and our world if we put our minds to it. And I want to start tonight.

Please join me tonight for a live online video discussion tonight at 9:30 ET at JohnEdwards.com

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Obama/Edwards Top Iowa Poll, Hillary Drops to Fourth

In a Research 2000/KCCI-TV poll just out, Illinois Senator Barack Obama moved into yesterday into a tie with former Senator John Edwards among Iowa Democrats. Both men pulled in 22% of support among the 600 Iowa Democrats polled between December 18 and 20. They were followed by Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack with 12%, and New York Senator Hillary Clinton at 10%. An October poll found Edwards at the top, with 36%, followed by Hillary at 16%, Obama at 13%, and Vilsack with 9% support. The drop in interest in Edwards is noteworthy only because Obama hasn't even visited Iowa yet.

Edwards is reportedly planning to announce from New Orleans next week.

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Edwards Tops in Iowa

As noisy as the 2008 "non-campaigns" of Hillary and Obama have been, John Edwards has more quietly been building support. According to a recently released poll, Edwards, the runner-up in the 2004 Iowa caucus, currently has more support among Iowa caucus Democrats than Hillary, Obama, AND Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, combined.

Edwards was the favorite among 36% of those polled, Hillary was second at 16%, followed by Obama at 13%, and Vilsack coming in fourth with only 9% of his home-state Democrats backing his run at the White House.

While it is stretching it to say anything is significant about a poll a year before the caucus, it is at least noteworthy that the poll was conducted October 12-19 -- before Obama said that he was considering a run. The poll was commissioned by an environmental advocacy group, which said it did not release the results in October because the primary purpose of the poll was for internal strategy planning.

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