Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Waddau Lookin At?

Here's a few things to look for tonight.

7pm -- polls close in Indiana, Virgina, and Georgia, among others.

If Obama wins Virgina, turn off the TV because there is no reasonable scenario for McCain to get to 270 without Virgina. McCain can win Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and still not get to 270 without Virginia. (The latest SurveyUSA poll of FLA LV, concluded yesterday, puts Obama at 50%, McCain 47%, with 1% undecided.)

If Obama also wins Georgia (which we are expecting), pop the corks because that means an Obama landslide.

We are looking for Indiana to go with McCain. If it ends up in Obama's column, it could mean Obama hitting 350 electoral votes by the time the West Coast polls shut down at 11 Eastern.

If the 7:00 polls all go with McCain, then it is on to Ohio at 7:30. I am looking for Ohio to end up in McCain's column, but it is a must-win for him and if the Buckeye state goes to Obama, it is lights out.

Then the big battlegrounds come in at 8pm -- Florida and Pennsylvania, as well as Missouri. McCain must take Florida and Pennsylvania to have shot at 270.

While we are expecting the conclusion to be writ before the 9 pm poll closings, if there's still life in the old man at 9:00, watch the results in Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and North Dakota. Obama should win New Mexico and Colorado, but if he adds either North Dakota or Arizona to his column, then you won't need to stay up for the final battleground closings at ten pm: Montana and Nevada.

I'm expecting an early night of poll-watching and a late night of celebration.

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