Thursday, August 24, 2006

New Keystone Poll Not Good News for Santorum

While the caseyphiles are not happy over the 5-points to which their man's lead has shrunk according to the most recent Keystone Poll, any joy over in Santorumland is much misplaced. The poll shows that Santorum hasn't gained any ground on Casey since the last Keystone Poll -- in fact he lost ground. In fact, Santorum's 39% support in this latest poll, versus 44% for Casey, is four points lower than the 43% Santorum had in March, 2005 when Keystone first began polling this race. The last Keystone Poll was right after the Democratic primary in May and Santorum had 41% support at that time and 39% in February, 2006.

As we said when the news was first leaked, look to see if Santorum has broken out over the 40% mark. He hasn't and that is the Mendoza line for incumbents.

But the news gets worse for Santorum. You have to go back 12 years -- TWELVE -- to 1994, to find the favorables rating for Santorum lower than the 37% he scored in this Keystone Poll.

Hate to say it (well, no I don't really), but there is something worse -- Santorum's unfavorables have NEVER been as low as the 37% of this month's Keystone respondents who had a "not favorable" view of Virginia's third Senator.

While Casey's favorables (31%) are lower than Santorum's, a full 49% say that they don't know or haven't decided.

What this means is that Casey hasn't blown another election -- yet. He's still got plenty of time to either pull back those who have moved from his side to the dunnos, or hand it over to Santorum. We are hoping it will be the former but Casey ain't exactly got history on his side.

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