Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Casey Said to Lose More Ground to Santorum in New Polls

Terry Madonna told us a few weeks ago that the next Keystone Poll on the Senate Race would be out the end of this month. Rasmussen's web page has the results of their most recent poll on the PA-SEN available only to their premium members. Last week we know that Zogby was conducting yet another interactive poll on the Casey-Santorum contest. Rumor central has it that the new polls show continued tightening of Casey's once-insurmountable 20-something lead over the multi-term incumbent.

The ever-vigilant Santorum Blog turned us on to the GrassrootsPA claimed-scoop on the surveys. According to GrassrootsPA report, the new Keystone Poll has Santorum back by only 5 points; the Rasmussen survey supposedly has the head-to-head at 8 points; and the Zogby results purportedly will show the difference at 9.

The prior Keystone Poll was done way back in May and had Casey up by 6 points. The huge time gap between the polls doesn't make comparisons terribly worthwhile. When released, you'll be able to find the latest Keystone Poll here.

Rasmussen last released a survey in early August, and that one gave Casey an 11-point lead over Santorum. If this latest report is correct (and we are betting that it is), that would not paint a happy picture for the Casey campaign.

The July 19 Zogby results put the spread at 9, where it will supposedly stay for the August Zogby survey.

GrassrootsPA says that Casey's new statewide television advertisement was rolled out early in response to these results. I'm not so sure about that. Let's not get too hysterical here, Casey is still leading an incumbent Senator by anywhere from 5 - 11 points in these three polls and the DSCC poll that the Casey folks released yesterday. This, in a state that gives the President some pretty low confidence ratings and where Casey's opponent likewise scores incredibly low on statewide approval polls. Casey's really going to have to work at it to lose this one. As these polls come out, watch how Santorum's numbers trend -- Santorum has had a hard time getting above 40% in the head-to-head match-ups. Granted, Casey has had a hard time staying above 50%; but Santorum isn't going anywhere if he continues to poll in the low 40s.

UPDATE: From the Patriot News, tipped by the Santorum Blog, again, the Keystone Poll taken August 16-21st shows Casey slipping to 44% to Santorum's 39% and 4 points going to the Green Candidate, the rest dunno.


Bernie O'Hare said...

This is beginning to scare the hell out of me.

Doctor Rick said...

It's great!

A Big Fat Slob said...

Casey did most of this damage to himself. I caught his stump speech on PCN the toher day -- horrid.

I should have taped and transcribed it, or at least taken notes. But my impression is that the speech was mainly an attack on Santorum.

Santorum derserves to be and should be attacked. But before Casey can go off on Rick Santorum, he's got to give the people a reason to want him.

He hasn't been doing that.

If he keeps campaigning that way, and keeps failing to provide substantive ideas -- leadership -- on the big issues everyone cares about, Santorum won't have to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, Casey will hand it up to him.

He's started his advertising, let's hope that does some good.