Thursday, September 21, 2006

More PA-Sen Polls -- Casey Lead Firm

Rasmussen has released the latest PA-SEN poll, but only for premium members. Apparently Bob Geiger is one, or knows someone who is a premium member. He tells us that Rasmussen's September 2006 Poll calls it Casey by ten points over Santorum, 49-39%, and features the same numbers.

What's it all mean? Geiger agrees with us:
Santorum is toast. Even if the Santorum team Photoshops a picture of Casey marrying a gay couple, while performing an abortion, with a burning flag in the background -- and I think we know, with Republicans, that's not out of the question -- this seat goes to the Democrats on November 7.
PoliticsPA has a report on a new IssuesPA/Pew Poll which it says was released today showing Casey up by 21 points, 52-31%.

Curiously, based on a poll said to show Casey with a much larger advantage, PoliticsPA thinks the race might still be up for grabs:
Among the three-quarters of registered voters who say they are “absolutely certain” to vote, Casey’s margin actually increases by two points (55 percent to 31 percent).

The Senate race remains more “up-for-grabs” than the polls indicate, as Casey has yet to seal the deal with voters. Only one-third of Casey supporters support him strongly (17 percent of all voters), while more than two-thirds are not strongly committed to his candidacy (36 percent of all voters). That leaves some opportunity for Santorum to close the gap, and a high percentage of voters remain undecided.
I think that's overly optimistic for the incumbent. Santorum is seeking election to a third term and simply does not have a strong case to make for himself. When a multi-term incumbent's two main strategies are to bring in a siphon (Romanelli) and to weaken Casey support with attacks, AND when he is struggling to stay above 40% within 50 days of election day -- he is fighting a lost cause.

Santorum's support will begin to crumble (even more) and become more fragile the closer we get to election day. He will lose by double digits.

But don't worry, he'll be fine. He'll make more money at Haliburton anyway.

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