Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Quinnipiac - Casey Up By 12 Points

This is going to be a very sad week for two-term incumbent Republican Rick Santorum.

It started off with the Inky/Pew poll showing the floundering Virginia resident down by ten points, which came on the heals of two polls last week showing the faux Penn Hills resident down by 10 points and 7 points. Now comes the new Quinnipiac poll of likely voters showing Casey trouncing Pennsylvania's junior Senator 51-39% in a three-way race and 54-40% in a head-to-head match up. And it will not be ending there, also due out this week are polls from Strategic Vision and, my favorite, the Survey USA rankings of all United States Senators.

In August, Quinnipiac showed the spread at a mere six points, with Casey at 48% and Santorum at 42% among "likely voters" (Quinnipiac -- despite several requests -- has never said how they determine if a voter is likely to vote. Their cross-tabs do not show that they ask any of the series of questions usually designed to ferret out likely voters. While we are suspect of their "likely voter" claims, they are used here for comparison purposes. The spread among all respondents and likely voters is roughly the same, anyway.)

Quinnipiac was one of the rare polls over the last year which showed Santorum above 40%. Not any more.
"Sen. Rick Santorum's comeback momentum has been stopped dead in the water. Santorum's attack ads against Casey have failed to spark voters' support, and 50 percent of voters say the Senator does not deserve re-election," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
While we take issue with any claim that Santorum had any comeback momentum -- he has consistently been looking at the ass-side of 40% throughout this campaign -- it is clear that Casey's support is solidifying. Actually, it may be more correct to say that the anti-Santorum sentiment is solidifying:
Among likely voters who back Casey, 55 percent say their vote is mainly against Santorum, while 40 percent say their vote is mainly for the Democrat.
You can count your loyal correspondent amongst that 55 percent. (On November 8, we start looking for ways to replace Casey in Washington with a real Democrat. Guess we'll have to draft him to run for Governor.)

The Quinnipiac Poll found that only 38% of the multi-term Senator's constituents think he's been doing a good job -- everyone else thinks he sucks, or is too confused to make up their minds. On the other hand, Casey's favorables are going up, which surprises your truly, but is a good sign for the Favorite Son's favorite son.

Romanelli (4%), as we have long said, is having no impact and, in fact, is pulling support from twice as many Republicans (2%) as Democrats (1%), according to the Quinnipiac numbers.

Santorum is strongest in the Northwest (47-47%) and Central (48% Santorum - 41% Casey) which have the fewest numbers of voters. In heavily populated Allegheny County, Casey is leading Santorum with 57-38% and in Philly Casey is walking away with 75% support.

Santorum is no doubt sending his resume out to his friends on K Street this week.

3 comments:

Pennsylvania Independent aka Penna Progressive said...

You and me alike need to vote for Bob Casey.
Rick Santorum is doing everything he can to make himself look good, rumor has it he may be moving back to him home in Pennsylvania. He often admits and refers to his home in Leesburg, Va.
I am voting for Bob Casey and you cannot convince me to vote for Rick Santorum. Pennsylvania has had twelve years of embarassment with Mr. Santorum.

LVDem said...

Actually, Santorum dropped his claim on the tax break on his PA home. It looks like he's getting ready to make his move to VA official... you know, to get his resume out.

A Big Fat Slob said...

Well, PIAPP, if you got the impression that I was trying to convince you to vote for Santorum, I apologize for my ineloquence. I would sooner clean my living room than something as odious as shilling for Santorum.

OTOH, I have many friends who will refuse to vote for Casey. And they do so for perfectly legitimate reasons and I do not disparage them their choice.

Casey's opposition to stem cell research, desire to criminalize a woman's control over her own body, lifelong (until last year) opposition to civil rights for everyone, support of using nuclear weapons against Iran, support of the Iraq war, the decision to go to war in Iraw, and opposition to ant deadline for withdrawing, as all good, sound reasons to support him.

The Republicans are losing their grip on power because, I think, they slid away from their core values. The Democrats are all too willing to prop up candidates opposed to their core values simply to win election. It might be a short-term path to power, but in the long run I think it will hurt the party.

lvdem, Santorum's statement on withdrawing that tax exclusion was just bizarre. I think it realy shows his desperation -- he'll do and say anything if he thinks it will translate into a couple of votes.

Since they haven't been leaked, I am sure that his internals are consistent with what I've been saying for a month -- he's going down by double digits. His recenttestiness in the field could be a symptom of that news, too.