Sunday, September 24, 2006

New Poll -- Casey up by 10

A new poll, released today, shows Democratic challenger Bob Casey leading Republican incumbent Rick Santorum by ten points among likely voters. The poll was conducted by Temple University for the Philadelphia Inquirer among 666 (nice touch) likely voters. Respondents gave Casey 49% support, Santorum was stuck below 40% again, at 39%, and Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli pulls in an insignificant 3%.

Even if Rick picks up all of the undecideds, he loses. More likely, as we move closer to election day, the undecideds will break towards Casey. Santorum is seeking his third term -- these voters know where he stands better than most of the people who live on their own street. When a multi-term incumbent is unable to make a solid case for himself a scant month before election day, an "undecided" vote is already a vote against the incumbent.

From the Republican faithful, you'll start hearing the myth about Santorum coming from behind. Don't let those talking points worry you -- at this point in his last reelection campaign, Santorum was trouncing Ron Klink, 43-24%. The challenger managed to pull in most of the undecideds over the last month of the campaign, ending up with 46% of the vote on election day in 2000.

As the Inquirer article points out, the last ten polls we've seen (which goes back to August 6th), give Casey an average lead of 9 points. Santorum has been looking at the underside of 40% virtually throughout this campaign. In the 25 public polls since April, Santorum has broken 40% on only six of them, and never by very much. There is no evidence that he has moved any Casey support to his side of the ledger and, with only 8% undecided at this point, he is unlikely to do so.

NOW it's time for the butter, Mabel!

2 comments:

Gary said...

http://declarationofpride.blogspot.com/2006/09/too-badso-sadfor-rick-santorum.html

I think you might find this interesting...Romanelli has been ordered removed from ballot.

A Big Fat Slob said...

Thanks for the tip -- I've been tied up most of the day with real work so had not kept in touch.