Saturday, May 14, 2016
Friday, May 06, 2016
An Argument for Sanders's Superior Electability
Based on most recent head to head polls, here is how much better Sanders does than Clinton against Trump in key swing states:
PA +55%
NH +42%
WI +58%
OH +33%
NC +250%
MI +64%
AZ +200%
IN +85%
But, you say, head to head polling isn't accurate during the primaries.
Not entirely correct. With only a couple of exceptions, including Jimmy Carter's failed re-election bids, head to head polling at this point (post-March) in the primary season has been pretty accurate when compared to the actual November results.
Oh, but Hillary has had shit dumped on her for 25 years and Bernie hasn't been battle tested.
Yeah, not entirely true, either.
Bernie has been battle tested in 14 statewide contests when all the shit you've heard about him (mainly from Shillaries) WAS thrown at him and he's still been re-elected and is still the most popular member of Congress in the country.
With Hillary, the fact that she's been (mostly unfairly) pummeled by the Republicans and Fox news for 25 years is not a strength.
It pretty much means that there are fewer people who are willing to be turned her way, plus Republicans inclined not to vote for anyone in response to Trump nomination, will still vote against Hillary -- those are two reasons why Sanders does so much better than she does against Trump.
Bernie has a point when it comes to electability. If Sanders holds all of these states except Indiana (where he is behind by only 1 point), Trump could sin ALL the other battlegrounds, and the Democrats still win the White House. But, Bernie can probably turn Indiana & Nevada, and win NM, Colorado, Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa, Virginia, and Florida, ending up with over 350 electoral votes.
Tuesday, April 05, 2016
There's Delegate Math and then There's Electoral Delegate Math
The Democrats appear on a track to nominate someone who has trouble winning in Blue states.
The reality of electoral politics today is that there are some 20+ states in which the Democratic vote just doesn't matter -- there is no way most of those those states are ever going to go Democratic, even with Trump as the Republican nominee.
So, what sense does it make for the Democrats to select a nominee who performs well in red states?
In states that went for President Obama in 2012, Bernie Sanders actually leads Hillary Clinton in the delegate count, 566 to 525. All of her overall delegate lead comes from states that went Romney in 2012, where she leads 718 to 414 (with Bernie winning half a dozen of the Romney states).
Wisconsin goes tonight and it is looking like Bernie will continue his dominance in the states that will count in November. Good thing the Republicans have made an even worse choice this time around.
Monday, April 04, 2016
It's the election, stupid
The Senate is back at work after recess.
Well, that might be overstating it a bit. They are back in Washington, mostly.
I'm back too, somewhat. In the six months in which your hero has been distracted, some stuff has happened. Trump has risen, and may be falling. Jeb! screwed the pooch. And, Scalia is a doornail. Predictably, the President has appointed a moderate Republican-approved replacement.
Senate Republicans are holding steady on their threat not to give the guy a hearing, or even meet with him. Of course their reasons are make-weight and ridiculous, of course there is no such thing as the "Biden Rule". And, of course, it has nothing to do with the expectation that a Republican will be elected President and nominate a conservative. They know that Judge Garland is the best they will do now, or in January 2017.
It is precisely BECAUSE they expect to be dealing with a President Clinton again that they are holding fast on the Garland nomination -- it's the only way they can counter the Trump (or Cruz) down-ballot drag. Intransigence means they can hold out the prospect of the Supreme Court coming after their guns and offering their teenage daughters abortions on demand through November. Unless given a better reason to come out than Trump or Cruz, they know that a good chunk of their kind will sleep in on election day.
So, sign all the MoveOn petitions and write all the huffy editorials and letters of outrage, your reason is irrelevant and weak when measured against the desperation of trying to save Congressional majorities.
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