12:45 AM -- Chuck Todd on MSNBC Reports Vote Discrepancy: Chuck Todd just reported on what I said a half an hour ago -- there is a discrepancy between the official count and the news counts. He also confirmed that the CNN and MSNBC counts were based on an AP stringer's count. But now, the Virginia elections board appears to have straightened that out and they also have Webb ahead, but by different numbers than AP.
He also reported over 20,000 votes yet to be counted in a heavily Democratic area of Fairfax County, a nice end of the night bonus for Webb.
Allen gave a concession speech but left out the conceding part. He replaced it with saber-rattling implying counting and recounting.
Claire McCaskill, in Missouri, is closing the gap as the larger cities begin reporting. Now, with 2680 of 3746 precincts reporting, it is a three-point race. Talent is leading 49% to 46%. NO Kansas City votes have yet been counted, they should be more than enough to put McCaskill in striking distance of 51%.
In Montana, Tester's lead continues to grow. With 30% reporting, he is up by 10 -- 54% to 44%.
And I am now, done for the day.
Hope
someone enjoyed this along with me.
12:30 am -- Virginia, Montana, Tennessee Updates: Bob Corker has defeated Harold Ford in Virginia. With 91% of precincts reporting, Corker owns 51% of the vote to Ford's 48%.
In Montana, with only a handful of precincts reporting, Tester has a 14,000-vote lead over incumbent Conrad Burns.
In Virginia, the state website is now reporting 99.26% precincts reporting with Webb now leading Allen. Here's how the vote stands:
Webb Democratic 1,148,750 49.44%
Allen Republican 1,146,952 49.36%
Parker Independent Green 25,719 1.11%
12:10 am -- Virginia Vote Report Discrepancy: Not so fast, guys.
CNN and MSNBC are each reporting Webb leading Allen, 1,141,052 votes for Webb to 1,138,676 for Allen.
Yet, the Official Virginia web site has Allen in the lead, with 1,141,753 votes to Webb's 1,139,885. The state's district and county crosstabs have the same results.
Either someone at the state went in and transposed the vote totals of some of the later reports, or the stringer (likely an AP stringer) used by MSNBC and CNN did.
So, what gives??
11:45 pm -- Final, Final Update: I just
had to have one more look at the close races. Webb has pulled to
within 2,200 votes of Allen, with 97.67% of precincts reporting, here's the tally:
Allen 1,114,969 49.47%
Webb 1,111,806 49.33%
Isn't this
fun?! Most of the unreported precincts are in the heavily Democratic areas of Richmond and environs.
CNN is now reporting that, with 99% of the precincts reporting, Webb has taken a 3,000-vote lead (my official Tennessee source doesn't have that number yet -- I am told with 99.1% reporting, Allen still leads by 1,800 votes. The effing Green Party candidate took 25,000 votes out of the mix. If Webb doesn't hold up his lead here, the Greens could well be responsible for control of the Senate staying with the Republicans.
This is too exciting, I may not be retiring yet.
Is anyone listening?
11:30 pm -- Final Thoughts: As I retire, the control of the House is clearly with the Democrats and the Senate takeover remains a possibility, but a remote one. In Missouri, the Democrats are depending on their traditionally reliable heavy percentages in the big cities to make up the difference. In Virginia, Webb is closing the gap, but running out of time. With 97.42% of precincts counted, Allen's lead is now
under 5,000 votes. In Montana, only 4% of precincts have been counted, 90 minutes after the polls closed. The Dems need a sweep of these races, or two of them and a big turnabout in Tennessee, which seems unlikely to happen. The Maryland vote seems to me to have been perhaps called a bit quick for Cardin, but the morning will bring that answer as well. All considered, I expect to awaken with a 50-50 Senate staring back at me from the morning screen.
In Pennsylvania, Bob Casey has a 20-point lead over Santorum, but that will lessen a bit as the remote areas supportive of the former Senator will start to come in. The Democrats in the contested Pennsylvania House races have done well, and several races are yet to be decided.
There is much good news in these events today. The best news being the engagement of the voters -- the high numbers turning out lifts the soul.
There is also great cause for concern -- the so-called "new breed" of Democrats, Casey, Tester, Webb, Sestak, Carney, and on. The country was being run so far into the shitter by these clowns who have co-opted the Republican Party that I cannot whine too loudly about getting into bed with this "new breed". But I fear that the Democratic Party will begin to prefer winning to principle -- which is what killed the Republican Party -- and confuse the notion of a "big tent" with abandonment of first principles in favor of victory.
More anon.
11:19 pm -- Tennessee Race Going to Republicans: With 82% of the precincts reporting, Bob Corker has a 53,000-vote lead over Harold Ford. The Republican has 51% to Ford's 48%.
11:12 pm -- Virginia Race Headed for a Recount: With 96.6% reporting, Allen has a 0.59 point lead over. Allen has recorded 1,106,775 votes (49.69%) to Webb's 1,093,722 (49.1%). Regardless who comes out on top in this tally, Virginia law entitled the loser to an automatic recount when the difference is less than 1%. If McCaskill wins in Missouri and Tester in Montana, we could see control of the Senate head to the Virginia election board and, eventually, possibly the courts.
11:08 pm -- PA 8th Tied Up: With just under 60% reporting, Patrick Murphy (D) and Mike Fitzpatrick (R)(I) are all knotted up at 50%.
10:57 pm -- Montana Returns Coming in Slowly: With a little more than a third of the precincts reporting, Montana incumbent Jim Talent enjoys a 51.5% to 44.9% lead over challenger Claire McCaskill. That's a 51,500-vote spread out of 750,000 votes counted so far. But, NO votes from St. Louis nor from Kansas City have been counted. They are HEAVILY Democratic and Faux News has reported that Republicans are disappointed with their showings in Republican suburbs. Local news reports in St. Louis and Kansas City were that the turnouts in those areas was extremely heavy.
10:42 pm -- Virginia Race a Nail Biter: With 95% of the voter counted and about 135,000 more votes still to come in, incumbent George Allen maintains a 10,600 vote lead over Democrat Jim Webb. The heavily Democratic Richmond area still has a number of precincts outstanding.
10:35 pm -- PA House Races:PA-4,
Melissa Hart (R)(I) v. Jason Altimire (D), with 25% reporting, Altimire is leading Hart, 50.7% to 49.3%
PA-06,
Lois Murphy (D) v. Jim Gerlach (R)(I), under 25% in, Gerlach barely ahead, 50-49%
PA-7,
Admiral Joe Sestak (D) torpedoes crazy Curt Weldon (R)(I), with 74% of the vote counted, Sestak has 57% of the vote in his pocket.
PA-8,
Pat Murphy (D) v. Mike Fitzpatrick (R)(I), with 36% counted, Patrick Murphy is ahead with 51% of the vote
PA-10,
Chris Carney (D) choked off Don Sherwood (R)(I)
PA-16,
Lois Herr (D) v. Joe Pitts (R)(I), with 20% in, Herr leads Pitts, 54%-42%.
10:29pm -- Local TV Calling the Race for Carney
10:25 pm -- Movin' to Montana, Soon: The polls in Montana closed twenty-five minutes ago and no numbers are available yet (I think some precincts still send them in by horseback). But the CNN exit polls show incumbent Republican Conrad Burns and Democratic challenger Jon Tester splitting the male vote at 49%-49%, and Tester winning the larger women's vote, 55% to 43%. Tester also wins the over and under 61 age groups. And all of the income groups. Basically, CNN's exit polls, if near the mark, portend a Democratic victory and another take away from the Republicans.
10:20 pm -- Ford Behind in Tennessee: With 50% of the vote counted, Harold Ford is 5-points and 65,000 votes in back of Bob Corker in the fight for Bill Frist's Senate seat.
10:18 pm -- Oh, Yeah, Rendell Won: Big Surprise, huh? With 34% reporting, he's only got 63% of the vote.
10:15 pm -- Sestak Knocking off Weldon: With 50% of the voptes counted, Admiral Joe Sestak has 57% of the vote, as against incumbent Curt Weldon's 43%. Crazy Curt is being retired.
10:10 pm -- Dems Pick up IN House Seats: Back before the 6:00 hour, I pointed out two Republican seats in Indiana and suggested that if the Demcoratic challengers take those seats, it could be a harbinger. The Democrats won both races.
10:01 pm -- Santorum Concedes Defeat: Called new Senator-elect Bob Casey, wished luck, pledged support to help him transition into the job. He ran an excellant campaign, is a fine man, and will do a fine job. . . . Thanks God (as do we). Thanks family. Sacrifices. Thanks staff. Thanks everyone. Too steep of a mountain to climb . . . . Buh-bye, Rick.
9:48 pm -- PA House Races: There is insufficient information available to even bother talking about the PA House races, yet. If any of the campaigns have reports which they would like to share, please send them on, abigfatslob-at-gmail . com & we'll get the information up. From
PhillyBurbs:
With 16 percent of precincts reporting, Democratic challenger Joe Sestak led Weldon, 57 percent to 43 percent. Sherwood was trailing his Democratic opponent, Chris Carney, 58 percent to 42 percent with 23 percent of precincts reporting.
9:35 pm -- Chafee Loses RI; Virginia Gets Closer: Catching up with YT, ABC, CNN, FOX, MSNBC have all called RI for the Democrats. With 85% pf the vote counted in Virginia, fewer than 8,000 votes separate the two candidates.
9:20 pm -- Cardin wins in Maryland: CNN and MSNBC just caught up with me and called Maryland for Cardin, who successfully beat off a late surge by Steele to keep that the Senate Seat for the Democrats.
9:15 pm -- Virginia Race Tightens: With 77% of the vote tallied, fewer than 10,000 votes separate Webb and Allen, who are virtually tied at 49.6% for Allen and 49.1% for Webb.
9:05 pm -- Lieberman wins CT; Chafee in Trouble: They are calling the CT race for Lieberman, but I am not sure that Lieberman will get to 50%. In Rhode Island, no tallies yet, but the
CNN RI exit polls make it appear as though Chafee is out, and that Republican Senate seat would go to the Democrats.
9:00 pm -- Pennsylvania House Races:PA-10 - With 2% reporting, Chris Carney trashing Don Sherwood, 62%-38%.
PA-12 - With <1%, style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-weight: bold;">8:55 pm -- IN 02 & 09 Turning Blue: At the beginning of the evening I suggested watching these two seats to see if there might be a national trend in favor of the Democrats. With half the votes counted, the Republican incumbents in these House seats are on their way to being replaced by Democrats.
8:41 pm -- Allen widens lead over Webb; MSNBC Call Ohio for Brown: With almost 60% of the vote counted, Allen has a 20,000-vote lead over Webb; percentage-wise it is 50%-48%.
8:35 pm -- MSNBC Calls NJ for Dems: FOX agrees with the Santorum call, but will not give NJ to the Democrat, yet.
8:30 pm -- Finally, NBC Calls Pennsylvania for Casey: Finally, someone is calling the obvious -- Santorum is FINISHED.
8:13 pm -- Virginia, Pennsylvania, NJ, TN: No one is willing to call anything.
Webb, with 35% reporting, has moved into a dead heat with Allen.
CNN's exit polling in
Tennessee makes it close, but puts Ford on the losing side. BUT bear in mind that 30% of Tennessee voters voted early/absentee.
In
Pennsylvania, Santorum is killed by Casey in CNN's exit polling.
No numbers on the NJ Race yet, but the
CNN exits there favor Menendez.
In Missouri,
CNN exit polls puts the race very very close.
In
Maryland, the exits make it look like Cardin has beaten off the late Steele surge.
Turnout has been very high all over. That may actually help Republicans in some areas (Missouri, Montana), but overall it is a Democratic plus.
7:55 pm -- Virginia Returns: With 9% reporting, Allen had a firm lead over Webb, 54% to 45%; with 15% reporting, it is now 50-48%, with less than 8,000 votes separating the candidates. It will be a long night in Virginia, but I remain confident that Webb pulls it out. The
CNN exit polls give him a slight advantage.
7:40pm -- KY-03 Update: Yarmuth(D) on way to victory over Anne Northrup(R)(I), with 65+% of precincts reports, Yarmuth leads 50% to 49%.
7:00pm -- Initial Projections: MSNBC, Virginia too close to call.
CNN, Virginia too close.
Fox, Virginia too close to call but exit polls are "very troubling" for Republicans -- 34% said their vote in Senate Race was vs. Bush; 43% said they voted based on Iraq, 2-1 broke for Webb. Fox fellas looking glum.
6:58 pm -- Hmmm MSNBC & CNN Think Kentucky Polls Open Until 7: We've been watching the KY results here since the polls closed at 6pm. With
15% reporting, Democrat John Yarmuth is leading Republican incumbent Anne Northrup in KY-03, 51%-48%.
6:29 pm -- KY-03 Going Dem: With 1% in, Democratic upstart in lead 66% to 32% in
initial returns 6:29 pm -- KY-04 Going Dem: Democratic upstart in lead 49% to 44% in
initial returns.
6:25 pm -- CNN Exits Polls Show Corruption Top Issue: From
TPM Cafe,
Is corruption in Washington, D.C., the dominant issue driving voters at the polls today? That's what CNN's exit polls are showing, according to Wolf Blitzer and Bill Scheider, who are chatting about their exit numbers on TV as we speak. Scheider just said that 42% of voters cited "corruption in Washington" as the issue which is "extremely important" to them. If true, this would obviously bode ill for the GOP, given the string of GOP officials facing investigation or indictment and given the fact that the GOP runs the place.
Other issues right up there with corruption, according to CNN's exits: terrorism, the economy, and Iraq. (The numbers don't add up to 100% because voters gave multiple answers). One other interesting tidbit: An overwhelming amount of voteres (62%) say national issues are motivating them, while around half that (33%) say local issues are. In whose favor would that play?
From
Political Wire, via
Americablog,
Early Senate numbers (uncomfirmed . . .):
Democrats are leading in Pennsylvania (+15), Ohio (+14), New Jersey (+8), Rhode Island (+7), Virginia (+7), Montana (+9), Missouri (+2).
Republicans are leading in Tennessee (+4) and Arizona (+4).
5:45 -- First Polls Close in 15 Minutes, What to Watch: Indiana polls close at 6pm and offer the first opportunity for the Democrats to pick up House seats held by Republicans. (Republican Senator Richard Lugar is running unopposed.)
In Indiana's Second, Democrat Joe Donnelly is challenging two-term incumbent Republican Chris Chocola. Chocola defeated Donnelly in 2004, 54% to 45%; that year Bush received 56% of the voter in IN-02. The latest poll on the race put Donnelly barely ahead, 50% to 47%.
IN-09 gives the Dems another chance to turn a red House seat blue, as Democrat Baron Hill challenges Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel in their third campaign against each other for southern Indiana's 9th District congressional seat. Hill's lead in the polls is an average of 2.7%.
If the two Democratic challengers do very well, it could bode ill for the Republicans overall.
Watch the results
here.
Kentucky polls also close at 6 pm Eastern time and the KY-02, 03, and 04 are worth watching. In KY-o2, the Republicans are expected to retain their seat, but the Republican seats in the 03 and 04 are being toughly challenged. If two of these three seats go to the Democrats, it would also be a great signal for the Democrats on what might be to come this evening.
Watch the Kentucky results
here.
5:30 pm -- FBI Investigating Claimed Repub Voter Intimidation in VA: From
MSNBC,
The Federal Bureau of Investigation is looking into the possibility of voter intimidation in the hard-fought U.S. Senate race between Sen. George Allen, a Republican, and Democratic challenger James Webb, officials told NBC News.
State officials alerted the Justice Department on Tuesday to several complaints of suspicious phone calls to voters who attempted to misdirect or confuse them about election day, Jean Jensen, Secretary of the Virginia State Board of Elections, told NBC’s David Shuster.
Jensen told NBC that she had been contacted by FBI agents. The FBI in Richmond refused to comment.
Moments ago, Tucker Carlson asked Rick Santorum about his nuke advertisement and if Santorum believed that the United States would be more at risk for a nuclear attack if Bob Casey were elected. "Oh, there's no question in my mind", the insane, classless, and clueless Senator from Virginia replied.
4:00 pm -- Voter Turnout Reports: In Virginia, turnout reports say that the numbers of voters coming out is roughly equal to presidential year turnout. Officals are suggesting that they are on a pace to see as much as 65% of eligible voters this year.
In
Tennessee, reports are that the turnout is at about twice the rate expected for mid-terms.
Unusually heavy turnout is also being reported by officials in
Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
Missouri voters are also apparently turning out in Presidental election-year numbers, according to press reports
there.
High turnouts, most agree, support the Democrats.
1:40 pm -- OnPoint Releases Key Senate Polls: OnPoint Polling released four polls today in key Senate races.
In the Missouri race, they put McCaskill ahead of Republican Talent by three points, 49-46.
In Montana, they give Democratic challenger Jon Tester five points (49%-44%) over incumbent Conrad Burns.
And in New Jersey, the OnPoint polling gives Democratic incumbent Menendez a 9-point advantage over Tom Kean, Jr., 50%-41%.
They see the Tennessee race as a one-point advanatage for Republican Corker over Democrat Ford in the battle to capture retiring Republican Senator Bill Frist's seat.
If the OnPoint figures -- based on polling done through yesterday -- hold up, the Dems will recapture the Senate.
The OnPoint polls are interactive telephone polls and were conducted yesterday, November 6, among a random sample of registered voters with a history of voting at least once in the past three years. The margin of error on these polls is about 4%.
SurveyUSA comes in, not on the last day, but on the
very last day.
Its (presumably)
last poll on these midterms, released today, election day, shows Democrat Claire McCaskill with a six-point lead, 50%-44%, over Republican incumbent Jim Talent. This comes on the heals of a later poll issued
yesterday by the SurveyUSA folks, showing McCaskill 9 points up. Today's release reflects a rolling average of the interviews conducted Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
Missouri is a must-win for the Democrats to have a shot at re-taking the Senate.
Election Day links:Official Returns:
Maryland Polls Close 8pm Eastern Time.
Missouri Polls Close 8pm Eastern Time.
Montana Polls Close 10pm Eastern Time.
New Jersey Polls Close 8pm Eastern Time.
Pennsylvania Polls Close 8pm Eastern Time.
Rhode Island Polls Close 9pm Eastern Time.
Tennessee Polls Close 8pm Eastern Time.
Virginia Polls Close 7pm Eastern Time.
CNN Election Day CoverageMSNBC Coverage
C-SPANPBS-Newshour Vote 2006 Coverage
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