What, Me Worry?

Other than the Rasmussen Poll from late May, Bobby Casey has not broken through 50% since at least April and, except for Rasmussen, Casey's numbers are below his high-water marks in every poll.

Is he fading, or is the electorate distracted from the race?

He has a reliable 9-point lead over Santorum, which is gratifying for a challenger. But he can't win in November with 49%.

So, why is his bus tour skipping the areas of the state (Philly & Pittsburgh) which have the most Democrats and the most liberal Democrats? Is he counting on Rendell to deliver those areas for him? Unlike Casey, Rendell has gotten out and about. But, has Casey heard his stump speech? I guess I missed the part where he goes on and on about how much we need Bob Casey in Washington. Or is Casey going to rely on media buys? I guess the latter would be a smart move since he's got so much more money than Santorum does to make those buys . . . oh, wait a minute . . . scratch that. We know it's not all those grassroots door-knocking volunteers that his campaign decided that they don't need.

So, someone tell me, is Casey being complacent, does he have a secret plan, or am I overreacting? (Thanks to Wiki for gathering all the polling data in one place.)

Rasmussen Reports

Source	Date	Casey (D)	Santorum (R)
Rasmussen	May 31, 2006	56%	33%
Rasmussen	April 27, 2006	51%	38%
Rasmussen	April 5, 2006	50%	41%
Rasmussen	March 28, 2006	48%	38%
Rasmussen	February 20, 2006	52%	36%
Rasmussen	January 19, 2006	53%	38%
Rasmussen	November 10, 2005	54%	34%
Rasmussen	July 22, 2005	52%	41%

Strategic Vision

Source	Date	Casey (D)	Santorum (R)
Strategic Vision	June 15, 2006	49%	40%
Strategic Vision	May 10, 2006	49%	41%
Strategic Vision	April 13, 2006	50%	40%
Strategic Vision	March 15, 2006	52%	38%
Strategic Vision	January 25, 2006	50%	40%
Strategic Vision	December 18, 2005	50%	39%
Strategic Vision	November 16, 2005	51%	36%
Strategic Vision	October 16, 2005	52%	36%
Strategic Vision	September 12, 2005	52%	38%
Strategic Vision	July 31, 2005	51%	40%

Quinnipiac University

Source	Date	Casey (D)	Santorum (R)
Quinnipiac	May 11, 2006	49%	36%
Quinnipiac	April 6, 2006	48%	37%
Quinnipiac	February 13, 2006	51%	36%
Quinnipiac	December 13, 2005	50%	38%
Quinnipiac	October 3, 2005	52%	34%
Quinnipiac	July 13, 2005	50%	39%
Quinnipiac	April 23, 2005	49%	35%
Quinnipiac	February 16, 2005	46%	41%

Keystone

Source	Date	Casey (D)	Santorum (R)
Keystone	May 4, 2006	47%	41%
Keystone	February 9, 2006	50%	39%
Keystone	November 10, 2005	51%	35%
Keystone	September 13, 2005	50%	37%
Keystone	June 6, 2005	44%	37%
Keystone	March 22, 2005	44%	43%

Zogby

Source	Date	Casey (D)	Santorum (R)
Zogby	March 30, 2006	47.4%	39.4%
Zogby	January 27, 2006	50.5%	38.7%
Zogby	January 19, 2006	51.1%	41.4%
Zogby	September 13, 2005	51.2%	42.4%

Other Polls

Source	Date	Casey (D)	Santorum (R)
Muhlenberg	April 26, 2006	46%	38%
Mansfield University	March 7, 2006	45%	31%
Muhlenberg	March 4, 2006	49%	37%