Bob Casey has a 52-34 percent advantage over incumbent Rick Santorum in the 2006 Pennsylvania US Senate Race according to the poll released today by Quinnipiac University. These are exactly the same numbers as in the October 2005 Quinnipiac Poll results. The pollster claims that this lead isn't so much for Casey as it is against Santorum -- something we've been saying since the beginning -- at this point a box of rocks should be competitive against Santorum.
Bob Casey isn't getting all the love Santorum has lost. Only 26% have a favorable opinion of the man who has been on every statewide ballot since women got the right to vote (oh, you caught me, that was an exaggeration). A whopping 42% say they don't know enough about him to make a decision. Casey was Pennsylvania's Auditor General from 1997 to 2005, took office as the State Treasurer in 2005, ran for Governor in 2002, and still 42% don't know enough about him to form an opinion?!
Quinnipiac asked voters if their vote would be cast more "for" the person they supported or "against" the opponent. Seventy-eight percent of Rick's people love him; 44% of Casey's support is an anti-Rick vote.
Here's a funny result -- while only 34% of the respondents said they would vote for Rick, 37% said he deserves to be reelected. Huh?
The two most recent polls prior to this one were released by Strategic Vision on June 15 and Rasmussen on May 31. The Strategic Vision poll gave Casey a 49-40% lead over Santorum, while Rasmussen gave Casey a startling 23-point lead, at 56-33%. Precise numbers aside, the trend appears to be that Casey is returning to the strength that he had in the pre-primary polls.
Quinnipiac opines that "The Senator is going to need a spectacular debate performance and a powerful advertising campaign if he does not want to become part of the anti-Bush, anti-Republican backlash". That's probably correct.
Casey appears strongest in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, where they disapprove of Santorum by 57-27% and 61-34%, respectively. They also give Casey his largest leads over Santorum -- he beats Rick in Philly 72-12% and in Pittsburgh Casey has a 61-28% advantage.
And it explains why Casey is ducking Philly and Pittsburgh on his summer tour -- those areas are pretty solid anti-Rick voters and his tour looks to be designed to reinforce his candidacy among the more moderate areas of the State. In Central Pennsylvania it's a dead heat at 42% and in the Northwest, Casey's lead is only 5 points, 42%-37%, with 21% undecided. So Casey is concentrating on building and reinforcing his support in those sections of the State with his summer tour. The Quinnipiac results supports that strategy.
Last month we said that Casey needed to get above the 50% mark and stay there. In the last three polls he's been at 49, 56, and 52. Maybe it's not time to count the chickens, but Casey should be pleased with the number of eggs he's got laying around.
UPDATE From the AP -- the responses of the campaigns to the Quinnipiac Poll results:
"Sen. Santorum appears to be his own worst enemy in his battle for re-election. More than 40 percent of those who say they will vote for Democrat Bob Casey say they are really voting against Santorum. And less than 40 percent of all voters say Santorum deserves to be reelected," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.Forty-five percent of Pennsylvanians DISapprove of Santorum's job performance -- one point more than last month's Quinnipiac Poll and a huge turn around from Santorum's 56 approval rating in December, 2003.
Bob Casey isn't getting all the love Santorum has lost. Only 26% have a favorable opinion of the man who has been on every statewide ballot since women got the right to vote (oh, you caught me, that was an exaggeration). A whopping 42% say they don't know enough about him to make a decision. Casey was Pennsylvania's Auditor General from 1997 to 2005, took office as the State Treasurer in 2005, ran for Governor in 2002, and still 42% don't know enough about him to form an opinion?!
Quinnipiac asked voters if their vote would be cast more "for" the person they supported or "against" the opponent. Seventy-eight percent of Rick's people love him; 44% of Casey's support is an anti-Rick vote.
Here's a funny result -- while only 34% of the respondents said they would vote for Rick, 37% said he deserves to be reelected. Huh?
The two most recent polls prior to this one were released by Strategic Vision on June 15 and Rasmussen on May 31. The Strategic Vision poll gave Casey a 49-40% lead over Santorum, while Rasmussen gave Casey a startling 23-point lead, at 56-33%. Precise numbers aside, the trend appears to be that Casey is returning to the strength that he had in the pre-primary polls.
Quinnipiac opines that "The Senator is going to need a spectacular debate performance and a powerful advertising campaign if he does not want to become part of the anti-Bush, anti-Republican backlash". That's probably correct.
Casey appears strongest in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, where they disapprove of Santorum by 57-27% and 61-34%, respectively. They also give Casey his largest leads over Santorum -- he beats Rick in Philly 72-12% and in Pittsburgh Casey has a 61-28% advantage.
And it explains why Casey is ducking Philly and Pittsburgh on his summer tour -- those areas are pretty solid anti-Rick voters and his tour looks to be designed to reinforce his candidacy among the more moderate areas of the State. In Central Pennsylvania it's a dead heat at 42% and in the Northwest, Casey's lead is only 5 points, 42%-37%, with 21% undecided. So Casey is concentrating on building and reinforcing his support in those sections of the State with his summer tour. The Quinnipiac results supports that strategy.
Last month we said that Casey needed to get above the 50% mark and stay there. In the last three polls he's been at 49, 56, and 52. Maybe it's not time to count the chickens, but Casey should be pleased with the number of eggs he's got laying around.
UPDATE From the AP -- the responses of the campaigns to the Quinnipiac Poll results:
A spokeswoman for Santorum said polls are unreliable at this stage of the campaign.
"The candidates haven't debated. Neither of them are on the air with television ads," said the spokeswoman, Virginia Davis. "Polls don't mean anything at this point."
Larry Smar, speaking for the Casey campaign, agreed that it is too early to read too much into the polls, but that Casey's continuing strength in polling bodes well for his prospects.
The AP also pointed out this noteworthy nugget: "It was the first time the senator's approval rating had dropped below 40 percent since Quinnipiac began measuring it in June 2002."
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