Thursday, June 15, 2006

New Poll -- Casey Lead at 9

(cross-posted at Daily Kos)

FINALLY! A new poll in the Pennsylvania Senate Race. Thanks to Santorum Blog for pointing out today's Strategic Vision poll results which show Bob Casey at 49% support compared to Santorum's 40%. This is virtually unchanged from last month's (pre-primary) Strategic Vision results, which had Casey over Santorum 49-41.

This is not great news for Bob Casey. Great that he is ahead of Santorum by 9 points, but he still hasn't broken through the 50% mark and the undecideds are still in double-digits (10%). I think the Democrats' biggest problem is that four men in a room, all white, all from outside Pennsylvania, decided that Bob Casey should be the Democractic senatorial candidate from Pennsylvania. Ed Rendell pushed Casey into the Senate race (to keep him out of the Governor's race?). The result, we got tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum competing.

Take this test -- which candidate (and only ONE candidate in the Pennsylvania US Senate race has espoused all of these positions):
  • Supported President Bush's decision to go into Iraq
  • Opposes a timeline for exit from Iraq
  • Said he would support President Bush dropping nuclear weapons on Iran
  • Opposes any new gun safety measures
  • Wants to criminalize abortion
  • Supported President Bush on Justices Roberts and Alito
  • Opposed a filibuster of Alito
  • Supported full renewal of the Patriot Act
  • Supports the Defense of Marriage Act
  • Opposes a moratorium on the Death Penalty
  • Has stated opposition to awarding health and other employment benefits to same sex partners of government employees
  • Has stated opposition to legislation granting full adoption rights to same sex couples
  • Has opposed proposals to roll back the Bush tax cuts on the top 2% of income earners
  • Takes campaign contributions from several hundred of the same corporate, pharmaceutical, and military/industrial PACs as his opponent
  • Is on the list of the top-twenty recipients of lobbyist/lawyer campaign donations
  • Has "no problem" with the display of religious documents on public property
Yeah, it's Bob Casey (Santorum, by the way, supports a Death Penalty moratorium). When, according to the Strategic Vision Poll--
  • 66% of Pennsylvanians think President Bush is doing a lousy job,
  • 67% think the President has messed up the economy,
  • 57% disapprove of the war in Iraq,
  • less than 50% approve of the handling of the war on terrorism, and
  • 59% think the State is heading in the wrong direction,
-- why can't the Democratic candidate -- the one who garnered more votes than anyone in the history of the Commonwealth in his last election -- get a lousy 51%? Two reasons -- Bob Casey and Bob Casey.

The first reason is that Bob Casey does not offer the voters a clear choice. He is too much like a Santorum wannabe than a Santorum challenger. He does not give the electorate a reason to support him. He doesn't stand for anything. Casey has no ideas, no vision, no leadership and it shows in the lukewarm (and often reluctant) support he has. It isn't a coincidence that Casey's level of support in this latest poll is exactly the same as Santorum's disapproval numbers -- 49% say they would vote for Casey and 49% say they disapprove of Santorum. Casey doesn't so much have supporters as Santorum has a lot of people who dislike him and want to see him gone.

The second reason is that Bob Casey is hiding from the voters. How many public, non-fundraising events has the candidate been engaged in? Not many. How often has he been in Philadelphia to meet and greet voters (excluding $1,000 a plate functions)? Even his silly bus tour, when is it coming to Philadelphia or Pittsburgh? In how many debates has Casey agreed to participate?

Casey needs to engage the electorate and Santorum. He needs to get some grassroots organization put together and not rely on media buys to sell the public on the Casey campaign. We hear that the Casey campaign has decided not to engage in its own grassroots organizing -- which means no local volunteers knocking on doors, local campaign offices, phone banks, local newsletters and email lists, none of that. Great strategy, there Bob. Ignore the individual voters and rely on TV to GOTV. Is that how you parlayed a double-digit lead over Rendell into a double-digit loss?

Off the top of your head -- can YOU name the top three Casey priorities? Okay, maybe that's unfair. What is Casey's number one priority? What will be on the top of his to-do list in January?

I pay attention and I can't answer these questions.

Sometimes I think the whispering that Casey really doesn't want to go to Washington might be true and might be reflected in how this campaign is being run.

Not long ago we thought the smell in the air was of Santorum's goose. But, as today's Strategic Vision Poll shows, Casey still has plenty of time and rope to hang himself and send Santorum back to Washington.


eRobin said...

You're right. I don't know what Casey's big cause is without going back to his website. And even then, it's all about how bad Santorum is. It's not universal health care, that's for sure.

A Big Fat Slob said...

Casey is an empty suit.

I guess I would shed a tear if he lost -- not because Casey lost, but because Pennsylvania lost a GREAT opportunity to put a real Democrat in the Senate. Come to think of it, I'd shed that same tear if he won.

The DSCC has handed us a real lose-lose situation, haven't they?