Monday, November 06, 2006

New CNN Generic Poll -- Dems with 20-Point Lead

Today CNN released the results of a generic congressional poll taken over the weekend. The poll of over 1,000 voters, including over 600 likely voters (note the ratio, folks), gave the Democrats a 58-38 percent advantage over the republicans in House races among the likely voters.

That 20-point lead is huge. In 1994, when the Republicans took back control of both Houses, their generic lead was under 4%.

This is pointing towards a blow-back of tremendous proportions and, if it holds up nationwide, voters in close races could send 54 Democrats (including Leiberman) to the Senate and the Dems could end up with 45 new Democratic seats in the House.

A big beneficiary of this sweep could be Harold Ford, who has inched back up in the polls recently. Given the MOE in the Tennessee polls, arguments can be made for a 51% Ford win. The problem is that Ford is black and, in particularly (but not exclusively) in states like Virginia Tennessee, a small percentage of white voters will tell a pollster they are voting for the black candidate when they have no intention of doing so. In a close race like this, that is enough to skew polls. BUT, if you see Harold Ford win in Virginia Tennessee, then look for surprises later in the evening. (Such as Arizona in the Senate, the Wyoming at-large House seat could then go blue, KT-5, WA-5, VA-10, OH-12, for example). Here in Pennsylvania, a sustained blow-back could send blow-hard Melissa Hart packing in PA-4. Wouldn't that be lovely?


Anonymous said...

I think you mean Tennessee, not Virginia?

A Big Fat Slob said...

Damn blurry eyes and fat fingers.

Thanks, I'll fix that.