Webb's Got it Done

SurveyUSA has a new poll out on the Virginia race and it puts Webb up by 8 points among likely voters. It is not so much the bottom line as the crosstabs which I find so helpful for Webb. Webb is virtually even among males (47% of the voters), with Allen's once 25-point lead now reduced to two points. Although the gender vote is not broken down into racial subcategories, it looks like Webb could be pulling 40-45% of the white male vote.

Webb's closing the gender gap on men in Virginia is huge. Especially because Webb is pulling in the women's vote 57%-39%.

The only age group in which Webb trails is in 65+ (16% of voters), but even there Webb is down only three points. Webb is walking away with the black vote, with 71% support. Six of ten independents prefer Webb, as do 7/10 moderates.

If the third-party candidate were not in the race, Webb would likely be picking up nearly all of the 2% going that way. Once inside the polling booth, I expect half of the thrid-party supporters to vote for Webb or Allen, with 3 of 4 breaking for Webb. Turning the numbers inside out, I do not see a way for Allen to survive.