(From The Greenbelt)
Saturday, November 11, 2006
Friday, November 10, 2006
Thursday, November 09, 2006
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Don't Look Now, Montana Recount Looming
I am not sure what percent of the vote has been counted in Montana, but know it is greater than 99%. Right now, Tester is 1,798 votes ahead of Conrad Burns (no word if anyone woke Burns with the news). Out of 361,135 votes cast (lol), the difference is 0.4%.
Under Montana law, the results of the election must be certified within 20 days. The putative loser can only seek a recount if the gap is 0.5% or less. Burns is 8 votes under the maximum for a recount. If he wants one, he must request a recount within five days of certification. But, unlike the Virginia situation, because the difference is not 0.25% or less, Burns has to pay the expenses of the recount.
What We REALLY Won: Rumsfeld Gone!!!
Well, we thought it would happen later than this. But Rumsfeld was forced out today. President Bush made the announcement at his press conference today:
As the commander in chief, I take these responsibilities seriously. And so does the man who served this nation honorably for almost six years as our secretary of defense, Donald Rumsfeld. Now, after a series of thoughtful conversations, Secretary Rumsfeld and I agreed that the timing is right for new leadership at the Pentagon.Our military has experienced an enormous amount of change and reform during the last five years while fighting the war on terror; one of the most consequential wars in our nation's history. Don Rumsfeld has been a superb leader during a time of change. Yet he also appreciates the value of bringing in a fresh perspective during a critical period in this war. Don Rumsfeld's a patriot who's served our country with honor and distinction. He is a trusted adviser and a friend, and I'm deeply grateful to his service to our country. I've asked Bob Gates to serve as the secretary of defense. Bob is the former director of the CIA and current president of Texas A M University.
But, in case you are, like me, approaching an age where change is not always welcome, not to worry, it'll still be "full steam ahead" at the ol' WH Corral:
Miserable failure.
QUESTION: Thank you, Mr. President.The President apparently sees it as perfectly reasonable to lie to the American public for political reasons -- not to protect us from attack, not to avoid spilling state secrets, not to save a life or even some money, but merely and exclusively to save some Republican congressional asses. Yes sir, that's our President:
Does the departure of Don Rumsfeld signal a new direction in Iraq? A solid majority of Americans said yesterday that they wanted some American troops, if not all, withdrawn from Iraq. Did you hear that call? And will you heed it?
BUSH: I'd like our troops to come home too, but I want them to come home with victory. And that is a country that can govern itself, sustain itself and defend itself.
I mean, I can understand Americans saying, Come home. But I don't know if they said: Come home and leave behind an Iraq that could end up being a safe haven for Al Qaida. I don't believe they said that.
And so I'm committed to victory. I'm committed to helping this country so that we can come home.
QUESTION: Thank you, Mr. President.Last week you told us that Secretary Rumsfeld would be staying on. Why is the timing right now for this? And how much does it have to do with the election results?Ohhh, that's alright, Mr. President, as long as you had such an important reason for lying to us. It's not like you really didn't believe that stuff you were saying about the Democrats and letting terrorists win, and all of that. I mean, we all know that no one would stoop to saying something like that for political purposes if they didn't really, truly, believe it in their hearts -- especially the President, right? Errr,
BUSH: Right.
No, you and Hunt and Kyle (ph) came in the Oval Office and you asked -- Hunt asked me the question one week before the campaign, and basically it was: You going to do something about Rumsfeld and the vice president?
And my answer was, you know, they're going to stay on.
And the reason why is I didn't want to inject a major decision about this war in the final days of a campaign.
And so the only way to answer that question and to get you onto another question was to give you that answer.
QUESTION: Thank you, Mr. President.You said you're interested in changing the tone and committed to changing the tone in Washington. Just a few days before this election, in Texas, you said that Democrats, no matter how they put it, their approach to Iraq comes down to: Terrorists win, America loses. What has changed today . . . ?And, what about the "stay the course" stuff . . . . on or off, now that "the election's over" and all and you don't have that very good reason to lie to us?
BUSH: What's changed today is the election's over. And the Democrats won.
QUESTION: Mr. President, thank you.You acknowledged that this is a message election on the war in Iraq. And so the American public today, having voted, will want to know what you mean in terms of course correction on Iraq, and particularly in light of this fact that last week the vice president pointed out that you and he aren't running for anything anymore and that it's, quote, Full speed ahead on Iraq.So which is it? Are you listening to the voters or are you listening to the vice president? And what does that mean?Hmmmm, I'm not sure, was he saying we are going to stay the course? Is it still "full steam ahead", or not? Here's a thought -- let's ask him to clear that up a little for us,
BUSH: I believe Iraq had a lot to do with the election, but I believe there's other factors as well.
People want their Congress -- congressmen to be honest and ethical. So in some races, that was the primary factor.
There were different factors that determined the outcome of different races, but no question, Iraq was on people's minds. And, as you have just learned, I am making a change at the secretary of defense to bring a fresh perspective as to how to achieve something I think most Americans wants, which is a victory.
Somehow it's seeped in their conscience that, you know, my attitude was just simply Stay the course. Stay the course means let's get the job done, but it doesn't mean staying stuck on a strategy or tactics that may not be working. So perhaps I need to do a better job of explaining that we're constantly adjusting. And so the fresh perspective (ph) on what the American people here today is we're constantly looking for fresh perspective.
What is also important for the American people to understand is that if we were to leave before the job is done, the country becomes more at risk. That's what the vice president is saying. He said, if the job is not complete, Al Qaida will have safe haven from which to launch attacks.These radicals and extremists have made it clear they want to topple moderate governments to spread their ideology. They believe that it's just a matter of time before we leave so they can implement their strategies.
We're just not going to let them do that. We're going to help this government become a government that can defend, governor and sustain itself and an ally in the war on terror.
QUESTION: Your message today is not full speed ahead? Is that right...Oh. Well, if someone else has the mike, then by all means, don't bother telling us what you are really planning to do in the central issue on the minds of every American, on the war which is costing us the blood of our children and creating a massive debt for the ones that you don't send over there to be killed. Nope, better to follow the procedure.
BUSH: We got another man with the mike, David. Please.
Miserable failure.
The Race Santorum Won
Those of you who pay close attention to these things might recall that in the primary election this year, Rick Santorum, running unopposed because he squeezed out his opposition with a petition challenge, pulled down 21,000 fewer Republican primary votes than did Lynn Swann.
Of course, everyone on the other side of the aisle denied it was a harbinger. But, Santorum can rest easy. In the General Election, he managed to out-poll Swann, by just under 53,000 votes.
Congratulations, Rick.
Of course, everyone on the other side of the aisle denied it was a harbinger. But, Santorum can rest easy. In the General Election, he managed to out-poll Swann, by just under 53,000 votes.
Congratulations, Rick.
In case you were wondering -- Virginia Recounts
Under Virginia law, only the apparent losing candidate can ask for a recount, and only if the difference between the apparent winning and losing candidate is 1% or less of the total votes cast for the two candidates.
There were more than 2.3 million votes cast in the Senatorial contest in Virginia yesterday. The one percent threshold would be 23,000. Currently, with 99.8% of precincts reporting (see note, below), the difference between the candidates is 7,146 votes -- well within the threshold.
The apparent loser cannot request a recount until after the election is certified. The State Board of Elections will not meet to certify the results of the November 7, 2006 election until Monday, November 27, 2006. George Allen will have has ten days from the certification date to request a recount, so the time frame for filing a request for a recount for this election is November 27, 2006, through December 7, 2006.
An apparent losing candidate requesting a recount of an election for a statewide office must file a petition requesting a recount with the Circuit Court of the City of Richmond. The Chief Judge and two other judges appointed by the Chief Justice of Supreme Court of Virginia make up the recount court.
The Chief Judge of the Richmond Court is Theodore J. Markow. Markow is somewhat infamous for his ruling that a plaintiff could not recover damages from a former lover who had infected the plaintiff with herpes. Markow threw out the case holding that the plaintiff was barred from recovery because fornication between unmarried persons was illegal. (You see why Santorum likes living in Virginia?) His ruling was later overruled by an unanimous Virginia Supreme Court.
The recount court sets all of the rules and procedures for conducting the recount and appoints the people to perform the recount. In setting the procedures for the recount, the court will also decide if the actual counting of votes cast will take place in the various localities or in a central location. After all of the votes cast are recounted, the court will certify the candidate with the most votes as the winner.
The counties and cities involved in a recount are responsible for paying the costs of the recount if the margin of difference between the apparent winning and losing candidates is a half of a percent or less or the candidate requesting the recount is declared the winner. Otherwise, the candidate who requested the recount must pay the costs of the proceedings.
NOTE: According to information obtained from the Virginia State Board of Elections, the uncounted votes are the absentee ballots in Fairfax City. Fairfax City cast 7,456 total votes, 56% of which were in favor of Webb. Even if there were 7,000 absentee ballots and they ALL went to Allen, Allen still loses.
There were more than 2.3 million votes cast in the Senatorial contest in Virginia yesterday. The one percent threshold would be 23,000. Currently, with 99.8% of precincts reporting (see note, below), the difference between the candidates is 7,146 votes -- well within the threshold.
The apparent loser cannot request a recount until after the election is certified. The State Board of Elections will not meet to certify the results of the November 7, 2006 election until Monday, November 27, 2006. George Allen will have has ten days from the certification date to request a recount, so the time frame for filing a request for a recount for this election is November 27, 2006, through December 7, 2006.
An apparent losing candidate requesting a recount of an election for a statewide office must file a petition requesting a recount with the Circuit Court of the City of Richmond. The Chief Judge and two other judges appointed by the Chief Justice of Supreme Court of Virginia make up the recount court.
The Chief Judge of the Richmond Court is Theodore J. Markow. Markow is somewhat infamous for his ruling that a plaintiff could not recover damages from a former lover who had infected the plaintiff with herpes. Markow threw out the case holding that the plaintiff was barred from recovery because fornication between unmarried persons was illegal. (You see why Santorum likes living in Virginia?) His ruling was later overruled by an unanimous Virginia Supreme Court.
The recount court sets all of the rules and procedures for conducting the recount and appoints the people to perform the recount. In setting the procedures for the recount, the court will also decide if the actual counting of votes cast will take place in the various localities or in a central location. After all of the votes cast are recounted, the court will certify the candidate with the most votes as the winner.
The counties and cities involved in a recount are responsible for paying the costs of the recount if the margin of difference between the apparent winning and losing candidates is a half of a percent or less or the candidate requesting the recount is declared the winner. Otherwise, the candidate who requested the recount must pay the costs of the proceedings.
NOTE: According to information obtained from the Virginia State Board of Elections, the uncounted votes are the absentee ballots in Fairfax City. Fairfax City cast 7,456 total votes, 56% of which were in favor of Webb. Even if there were 7,000 absentee ballots and they ALL went to Allen, Allen still loses.
What's to Lose?
The Democrats have retaken the House, Senate, and Gubernatorial offices. In an election in which exit polls made it clear that this was a nationalized mid-term, voters across the country delivered a severe message to the bloodied Republicans left in Washington -- "Son of a gun, better change your act!" In exit polls yesterday, 60% of voters said they were opposed to the Iraq war amd four out of ten said that their vote was intended to be a vote against the President. Corruption was also revealed by the exit polling as a crucial issue to many voters. Independents broke heavily for the Democrats. All of this is clear to everyone, but one.
The miserable failure in chief has scheduled a press confab for 1:00 today. He will say that he is "lookin fowood to aworkin wit the new leadership". But what he will mean is, "I don't care what the good folk in America say, full steam ahead, hehe, yasee".
He will fail to recognize the demand of the American people for a change of course in Iraq; he will refuse to see the election results as a complete repudiation of his small-minded, incompentently admininistered policies; he will endorse Rumsfeld, again.
Sometime in late January or early February, 2007, he will be startled to learn just what Congressional oversight the Consitution intends. He'll see things he has never seen before -- like White House subpoenas.
Sometime in late January or early February, 2007, he will be startled to learn just what Congressional oversight the Consitution intends. He'll see things he has never seen before -- like White House subpoenas.
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Election Day Coverage
12:45 AM -- Chuck Todd on MSNBC Reports Vote Discrepancy: Chuck Todd just reported on what I said a half an hour ago -- there is a discrepancy between the official count and the news counts. He also confirmed that the CNN and MSNBC counts were based on an AP stringer's count. But now, the Virginia elections board appears to have straightened that out and they also have Webb ahead, but by different numbers than AP.
He also reported over 20,000 votes yet to be counted in a heavily Democratic area of Fairfax County, a nice end of the night bonus for Webb.
Allen gave a concession speech but left out the conceding part. He replaced it with saber-rattling implying counting and recounting.
Claire McCaskill, in Missouri, is closing the gap as the larger cities begin reporting. Now, with 2680 of 3746 precincts reporting, it is a three-point race. Talent is leading 49% to 46%. NO Kansas City votes have yet been counted, they should be more than enough to put McCaskill in striking distance of 51%.
In Montana, Tester's lead continues to grow. With 30% reporting, he is up by 10 -- 54% to 44%.
And I am now, done for the day.
Hope someone enjoyed this along with me.
12:30 am -- Virginia, Montana, Tennessee Updates: Bob Corker has defeated Harold Ford in Virginia. With 91% of precincts reporting, Corker owns 51% of the vote to Ford's 48%.
In Montana, with only a handful of precincts reporting, Tester has a 14,000-vote lead over incumbent Conrad Burns.
In Virginia, the state website is now reporting 99.26% precincts reporting with Webb now leading Allen. Here's how the vote stands:
Webb Democratic 1,148,750 49.44%
Allen Republican 1,146,952 49.36%
Parker Independent Green 25,719 1.11%
12:10 am -- Virginia Vote Report Discrepancy: Not so fast, guys. CNN and MSNBC are each reporting Webb leading Allen, 1,141,052 votes for Webb to 1,138,676 for Allen.
Yet, the Official Virginia web site has Allen in the lead, with 1,141,753 votes to Webb's 1,139,885. The state's district and county crosstabs have the same results.
Either someone at the state went in and transposed the vote totals of some of the later reports, or the stringer (likely an AP stringer) used by MSNBC and CNN did.
So, what gives??
11:45 pm -- Final, Final Update: I just had to have one more look at the close races. Webb has pulled to within 2,200 votes of Allen, with 97.67% of precincts reporting, here's the tally:
CNN is now reporting that, with 99% of the precincts reporting, Webb has taken a 3,000-vote lead (my official Tennessee source doesn't have that number yet -- I am told with 99.1% reporting, Allen still leads by 1,800 votes. The effing Green Party candidate took 25,000 votes out of the mix. If Webb doesn't hold up his lead here, the Greens could well be responsible for control of the Senate staying with the Republicans.
This is too exciting, I may not be retiring yet.
Is anyone listening?
11:30 pm -- Final Thoughts: As I retire, the control of the House is clearly with the Democrats and the Senate takeover remains a possibility, but a remote one. In Missouri, the Democrats are depending on their traditionally reliable heavy percentages in the big cities to make up the difference. In Virginia, Webb is closing the gap, but running out of time. With 97.42% of precincts counted, Allen's lead is now under 5,000 votes. In Montana, only 4% of precincts have been counted, 90 minutes after the polls closed. The Dems need a sweep of these races, or two of them and a big turnabout in Tennessee, which seems unlikely to happen. The Maryland vote seems to me to have been perhaps called a bit quick for Cardin, but the morning will bring that answer as well. All considered, I expect to awaken with a 50-50 Senate staring back at me from the morning screen.
In Pennsylvania, Bob Casey has a 20-point lead over Santorum, but that will lessen a bit as the remote areas supportive of the former Senator will start to come in. The Democrats in the contested Pennsylvania House races have done well, and several races are yet to be decided.
There is much good news in these events today. The best news being the engagement of the voters -- the high numbers turning out lifts the soul.
There is also great cause for concern -- the so-called "new breed" of Democrats, Casey, Tester, Webb, Sestak, Carney, and on. The country was being run so far into the shitter by these clowns who have co-opted the Republican Party that I cannot whine too loudly about getting into bed with this "new breed". But I fear that the Democratic Party will begin to prefer winning to principle -- which is what killed the Republican Party -- and confuse the notion of a "big tent" with abandonment of first principles in favor of victory.
More anon.
11:19 pm -- Tennessee Race Going to Republicans: With 82% of the precincts reporting, Bob Corker has a 53,000-vote lead over Harold Ford. The Republican has 51% to Ford's 48%.
11:12 pm -- Virginia Race Headed for a Recount: With 96.6% reporting, Allen has a 0.59 point lead over. Allen has recorded 1,106,775 votes (49.69%) to Webb's 1,093,722 (49.1%). Regardless who comes out on top in this tally, Virginia law entitled the loser to an automatic recount when the difference is less than 1%. If McCaskill wins in Missouri and Tester in Montana, we could see control of the Senate head to the Virginia election board and, eventually, possibly the courts.
11:08 pm -- PA 8th Tied Up: With just under 60% reporting, Patrick Murphy (D) and Mike Fitzpatrick (R)(I) are all knotted up at 50%.
10:57 pm -- Montana Returns Coming in Slowly: With a little more than a third of the precincts reporting, Montana incumbent Jim Talent enjoys a 51.5% to 44.9% lead over challenger Claire McCaskill. That's a 51,500-vote spread out of 750,000 votes counted so far. But, NO votes from St. Louis nor from Kansas City have been counted. They are HEAVILY Democratic and Faux News has reported that Republicans are disappointed with their showings in Republican suburbs. Local news reports in St. Louis and Kansas City were that the turnouts in those areas was extremely heavy.
10:42 pm -- Virginia Race a Nail Biter: With 95% of the voter counted and about 135,000 more votes still to come in, incumbent George Allen maintains a 10,600 vote lead over Democrat Jim Webb. The heavily Democratic Richmond area still has a number of precincts outstanding.
10:35 pm -- PA House Races:
PA-4, Melissa Hart (R)(I) v. Jason Altimire (D), with 25% reporting, Altimire is leading Hart, 50.7% to 49.3%
PA-06, Lois Murphy (D) v. Jim Gerlach (R)(I), under 25% in, Gerlach barely ahead, 50-49%
PA-7, Admiral Joe Sestak (D) torpedoes crazy Curt Weldon (R)(I), with 74% of the vote counted, Sestak has 57% of the vote in his pocket.
PA-8, Pat Murphy (D) v. Mike Fitzpatrick (R)(I), with 36% counted, Patrick Murphy is ahead with 51% of the vote
PA-10, Chris Carney (D) choked off Don Sherwood (R)(I)
PA-16, Lois Herr (D) v. Joe Pitts (R)(I), with 20% in, Herr leads Pitts, 54%-42%.
10:29pm -- Local TV Calling the Race for Carney
10:25 pm -- Movin' to Montana, Soon: The polls in Montana closed twenty-five minutes ago and no numbers are available yet (I think some precincts still send them in by horseback). But the CNN exit polls show incumbent Republican Conrad Burns and Democratic challenger Jon Tester splitting the male vote at 49%-49%, and Tester winning the larger women's vote, 55% to 43%. Tester also wins the over and under 61 age groups. And all of the income groups. Basically, CNN's exit polls, if near the mark, portend a Democratic victory and another take away from the Republicans.
10:20 pm -- Ford Behind in Tennessee: With 50% of the vote counted, Harold Ford is 5-points and 65,000 votes in back of Bob Corker in the fight for Bill Frist's Senate seat.
10:18 pm -- Oh, Yeah, Rendell Won: Big Surprise, huh? With 34% reporting, he's only got 63% of the vote.
10:15 pm -- Sestak Knocking off Weldon: With 50% of the voptes counted, Admiral Joe Sestak has 57% of the vote, as against incumbent Curt Weldon's 43%. Crazy Curt is being retired.
10:10 pm -- Dems Pick up IN House Seats: Back before the 6:00 hour, I pointed out two Republican seats in Indiana and suggested that if the Demcoratic challengers take those seats, it could be a harbinger. The Democrats won both races.
10:01 pm -- Santorum Concedes Defeat: Called new Senator-elect Bob Casey, wished luck, pledged support to help him transition into the job. He ran an excellant campaign, is a fine man, and will do a fine job. . . . Thanks God (as do we). Thanks family. Sacrifices. Thanks staff. Thanks everyone. Too steep of a mountain to climb . . . . Buh-bye, Rick.
9:48 pm -- PA House Races: There is insufficient information available to even bother talking about the PA House races, yet. If any of the campaigns have reports which they would like to share, please send them on, abigfatslob-at-gmail . com & we'll get the information up. From PhillyBurbs:
9:35 pm -- Chafee Loses RI; Virginia Gets Closer: Catching up with YT, ABC, CNN, FOX, MSNBC have all called RI for the Democrats. With 85% pf the vote counted in Virginia, fewer than 8,000 votes separate the two candidates.He also reported over 20,000 votes yet to be counted in a heavily Democratic area of Fairfax County, a nice end of the night bonus for Webb.
Allen gave a concession speech but left out the conceding part. He replaced it with saber-rattling implying counting and recounting.
Claire McCaskill, in Missouri, is closing the gap as the larger cities begin reporting. Now, with 2680 of 3746 precincts reporting, it is a three-point race. Talent is leading 49% to 46%. NO Kansas City votes have yet been counted, they should be more than enough to put McCaskill in striking distance of 51%.
In Montana, Tester's lead continues to grow. With 30% reporting, he is up by 10 -- 54% to 44%.
And I am now, done for the day.
Hope someone enjoyed this along with me.
12:30 am -- Virginia, Montana, Tennessee Updates: Bob Corker has defeated Harold Ford in Virginia. With 91% of precincts reporting, Corker owns 51% of the vote to Ford's 48%.
In Montana, with only a handful of precincts reporting, Tester has a 14,000-vote lead over incumbent Conrad Burns.
In Virginia, the state website is now reporting 99.26% precincts reporting with Webb now leading Allen. Here's how the vote stands:
Webb Democratic 1,148,750 49.44%
Allen Republican 1,146,952 49.36%
Parker Independent Green 25,719 1.11%
12:10 am -- Virginia Vote Report Discrepancy: Not so fast, guys. CNN and MSNBC are each reporting Webb leading Allen, 1,141,052 votes for Webb to 1,138,676 for Allen.
Yet, the Official Virginia web site has Allen in the lead, with 1,141,753 votes to Webb's 1,139,885. The state's district and county crosstabs have the same results.
Either someone at the state went in and transposed the vote totals of some of the later reports, or the stringer (likely an AP stringer) used by MSNBC and CNN did.
So, what gives??
11:45 pm -- Final, Final Update: I just had to have one more look at the close races. Webb has pulled to within 2,200 votes of Allen, with 97.67% of precincts reporting, here's the tally:
Allen 1,114,969 49.47%Isn't this fun?! Most of the unreported precincts are in the heavily Democratic areas of Richmond and environs.
Webb 1,111,806 49.33%
CNN is now reporting that, with 99% of the precincts reporting, Webb has taken a 3,000-vote lead (my official Tennessee source doesn't have that number yet -- I am told with 99.1% reporting, Allen still leads by 1,800 votes. The effing Green Party candidate took 25,000 votes out of the mix. If Webb doesn't hold up his lead here, the Greens could well be responsible for control of the Senate staying with the Republicans.
This is too exciting, I may not be retiring yet.
Is anyone listening?
11:30 pm -- Final Thoughts: As I retire, the control of the House is clearly with the Democrats and the Senate takeover remains a possibility, but a remote one. In Missouri, the Democrats are depending on their traditionally reliable heavy percentages in the big cities to make up the difference. In Virginia, Webb is closing the gap, but running out of time. With 97.42% of precincts counted, Allen's lead is now under 5,000 votes. In Montana, only 4% of precincts have been counted, 90 minutes after the polls closed. The Dems need a sweep of these races, or two of them and a big turnabout in Tennessee, which seems unlikely to happen. The Maryland vote seems to me to have been perhaps called a bit quick for Cardin, but the morning will bring that answer as well. All considered, I expect to awaken with a 50-50 Senate staring back at me from the morning screen.
In Pennsylvania, Bob Casey has a 20-point lead over Santorum, but that will lessen a bit as the remote areas supportive of the former Senator will start to come in. The Democrats in the contested Pennsylvania House races have done well, and several races are yet to be decided.
There is much good news in these events today. The best news being the engagement of the voters -- the high numbers turning out lifts the soul.
There is also great cause for concern -- the so-called "new breed" of Democrats, Casey, Tester, Webb, Sestak, Carney, and on. The country was being run so far into the shitter by these clowns who have co-opted the Republican Party that I cannot whine too loudly about getting into bed with this "new breed". But I fear that the Democratic Party will begin to prefer winning to principle -- which is what killed the Republican Party -- and confuse the notion of a "big tent" with abandonment of first principles in favor of victory.
More anon.
11:19 pm -- Tennessee Race Going to Republicans: With 82% of the precincts reporting, Bob Corker has a 53,000-vote lead over Harold Ford. The Republican has 51% to Ford's 48%.11:12 pm -- Virginia Race Headed for a Recount: With 96.6% reporting, Allen has a 0.59 point lead over. Allen has recorded 1,106,775 votes (49.69%) to Webb's 1,093,722 (49.1%). Regardless who comes out on top in this tally, Virginia law entitled the loser to an automatic recount when the difference is less than 1%. If McCaskill wins in Missouri and Tester in Montana, we could see control of the Senate head to the Virginia election board and, eventually, possibly the courts.
11:08 pm -- PA 8th Tied Up: With just under 60% reporting, Patrick Murphy (D) and Mike Fitzpatrick (R)(I) are all knotted up at 50%.
10:57 pm -- Montana Returns Coming in Slowly: With a little more than a third of the precincts reporting, Montana incumbent Jim Talent enjoys a 51.5% to 44.9% lead over challenger Claire McCaskill. That's a 51,500-vote spread out of 750,000 votes counted so far. But, NO votes from St. Louis nor from Kansas City have been counted. They are HEAVILY Democratic and Faux News has reported that Republicans are disappointed with their showings in Republican suburbs. Local news reports in St. Louis and Kansas City were that the turnouts in those areas was extremely heavy.
10:42 pm -- Virginia Race a Nail Biter: With 95% of the voter counted and about 135,000 more votes still to come in, incumbent George Allen maintains a 10,600 vote lead over Democrat Jim Webb. The heavily Democratic Richmond area still has a number of precincts outstanding.
10:35 pm -- PA House Races:
PA-4, Melissa Hart (R)(I) v. Jason Altimire (D), with 25% reporting, Altimire is leading Hart, 50.7% to 49.3%
PA-06, Lois Murphy (D) v. Jim Gerlach (R)(I), under 25% in, Gerlach barely ahead, 50-49%
PA-7, Admiral Joe Sestak (D) torpedoes crazy Curt Weldon (R)(I), with 74% of the vote counted, Sestak has 57% of the vote in his pocket.
PA-8, Pat Murphy (D) v. Mike Fitzpatrick (R)(I), with 36% counted, Patrick Murphy is ahead with 51% of the vote
PA-10, Chris Carney (D) choked off Don Sherwood (R)(I)
PA-16, Lois Herr (D) v. Joe Pitts (R)(I), with 20% in, Herr leads Pitts, 54%-42%.
10:29pm -- Local TV Calling the Race for Carney
10:25 pm -- Movin' to Montana, Soon: The polls in Montana closed twenty-five minutes ago and no numbers are available yet (I think some precincts still send them in by horseback). But the CNN exit polls show incumbent Republican Conrad Burns and Democratic challenger Jon Tester splitting the male vote at 49%-49%, and Tester winning the larger women's vote, 55% to 43%. Tester also wins the over and under 61 age groups. And all of the income groups. Basically, CNN's exit polls, if near the mark, portend a Democratic victory and another take away from the Republicans.
10:20 pm -- Ford Behind in Tennessee: With 50% of the vote counted, Harold Ford is 5-points and 65,000 votes in back of Bob Corker in the fight for Bill Frist's Senate seat.
10:18 pm -- Oh, Yeah, Rendell Won: Big Surprise, huh? With 34% reporting, he's only got 63% of the vote.
10:15 pm -- Sestak Knocking off Weldon: With 50% of the voptes counted, Admiral Joe Sestak has 57% of the vote, as against incumbent Curt Weldon's 43%. Crazy Curt is being retired.
10:10 pm -- Dems Pick up IN House Seats: Back before the 6:00 hour, I pointed out two Republican seats in Indiana and suggested that if the Demcoratic challengers take those seats, it could be a harbinger. The Democrats won both races.
10:01 pm -- Santorum Concedes Defeat: Called new Senator-elect Bob Casey, wished luck, pledged support to help him transition into the job. He ran an excellant campaign, is a fine man, and will do a fine job. . . . Thanks God (as do we). Thanks family. Sacrifices. Thanks staff. Thanks everyone. Too steep of a mountain to climb . . . . Buh-bye, Rick.
9:48 pm -- PA House Races: There is insufficient information available to even bother talking about the PA House races, yet. If any of the campaigns have reports which they would like to share, please send them on, abigfatslob-at-gmail . com & we'll get the information up. From PhillyBurbs:With 16 percent of precincts reporting, Democratic challenger Joe Sestak led Weldon, 57 percent to 43 percent. Sherwood was trailing his Democratic opponent, Chris Carney, 58 percent to 42 percent with 23 percent of precincts reporting.
9:20 pm -- Cardin wins in Maryland: CNN and MSNBC just caught up with me and called Maryland for Cardin, who successfully beat off a late surge by Steele to keep that the Senate Seat for the Democrats.
9:15 pm -- Virginia Race Tightens: With 77% of the vote tallied, fewer than 10,000 votes separate Webb and Allen, who are virtually tied at 49.6% for Allen and 49.1% for Webb.
9:05 pm -- Lieberman wins CT; Chafee in Trouble: They are calling the CT race for Lieberman, but I am not sure that Lieberman will get to 50%. In Rhode Island, no tallies yet, but the CNN RI exit polls make it appear as though Chafee is out, and that Republican Senate seat would go to the Democrats.
9:00 pm -- Pennsylvania House Races:
PA-10 - With 2% reporting, Chris Carney trashing Don Sherwood, 62%-38%.
PA-12 - With <1%, style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-weight: bold;">8:55 pm -- IN 02 & 09 Turning Blue: At the beginning of the evening I suggested watching these two seats to see if there might be a national trend in favor of the Democrats. With half the votes counted, the Republican incumbents in these House seats are on their way to being replaced by Democrats.
8:41 pm -- Allen widens lead over Webb; MSNBC Call Ohio for Brown: With almost 60% of the vote counted, Allen has a 20,000-vote lead over Webb; percentage-wise it is 50%-48%.
8:35 pm -- MSNBC Calls NJ for Dems: FOX agrees with the Santorum call, but will not give NJ to the Democrat, yet.
8:30 pm -- Finally, NBC Calls Pennsylvania for Casey: Finally, someone is calling the obvious -- Santorum is FINISHED.
8:13 pm -- Virginia, Pennsylvania, NJ, TN: No one is willing to call anything.
Webb, with 35% reporting, has moved into a dead heat with Allen.
CNN's exit polling in Tennessee makes it close, but puts Ford on the losing side. BUT bear in mind that 30% of Tennessee voters voted early/absentee.
In Pennsylvania, Santorum is killed by Casey in CNN's exit polling.
No numbers on the NJ Race yet, but the CNN exits there favor Menendez.
In Missouri, CNN exit polls puts the race very very close.
In Maryland, the exits make it look like Cardin has beaten off the late Steele surge.
Turnout has been very high all over. That may actually help Republicans in some areas (Missouri, Montana), but overall it is a Democratic plus.
Webb, with 35% reporting, has moved into a dead heat with Allen.
CNN's exit polling in Tennessee makes it close, but puts Ford on the losing side. BUT bear in mind that 30% of Tennessee voters voted early/absentee.
In Pennsylvania, Santorum is killed by Casey in CNN's exit polling.
No numbers on the NJ Race yet, but the CNN exits there favor Menendez.
In Missouri, CNN exit polls puts the race very very close.
In Maryland, the exits make it look like Cardin has beaten off the late Steele surge.
Turnout has been very high all over. That may actually help Republicans in some areas (Missouri, Montana), but overall it is a Democratic plus.
7:55 pm -- Virginia Returns: With 9% reporting, Allen had a firm lead over Webb, 54% to 45%; with 15% reporting, it is now 50-48%, with less than 8,000 votes separating the candidates. It will be a long night in Virginia, but I remain confident that Webb pulls it out. The CNN exit polls give him a slight advantage.
7:40pm -- KY-03 Update: Yarmuth(D) on way to victory over Anne Northrup(R)(I), with 65+% of precincts reports, Yarmuth leads 50% to 49%.
7:00pm -- Initial Projections: MSNBC, Virginia too close to call.
CNN, Virginia too close.
Fox, Virginia too close to call but exit polls are "very troubling" for Republicans -- 34% said their vote in Senate Race was vs. Bush; 43% said they voted based on Iraq, 2-1 broke for Webb. Fox fellas looking glum.
7:00pm -- Initial Projections: MSNBC, Virginia too close to call.
CNN, Virginia too close.
Fox, Virginia too close to call but exit polls are "very troubling" for Republicans -- 34% said their vote in Senate Race was vs. Bush; 43% said they voted based on Iraq, 2-1 broke for Webb. Fox fellas looking glum.
6:58 pm -- Hmmm MSNBC & CNN Think Kentucky Polls Open Until 7: We've been watching the KY results here since the polls closed at 6pm. With 15% reporting, Democrat John Yarmuth is leading Republican incumbent Anne Northrup in KY-03, 51%-48%.
6:29 pm -- KY-04 Going Dem: Democratic upstart in lead 49% to 44% in initial returns.
6:25 pm -- CNN Exits Polls Show Corruption Top Issue: From TPM Cafe,
Is corruption in Washington, D.C., the dominant issue driving voters at the polls today? That's what CNN's exit polls are showing, according to Wolf Blitzer and Bill Scheider, who are chatting about their exit numbers on TV as we speak. Scheider just said that 42% of voters cited "corruption in Washington" as the issue which is "extremely important" to them. If true, this would obviously bode ill for the GOP, given the string of GOP officials facing investigation or indictment and given the fact that the GOP runs the place.
Other issues right up there with corruption, according to CNN's exits: terrorism, the economy, and Iraq. (The numbers don't add up to 100% because voters gave multiple answers). One other interesting tidbit: An overwhelming amount of voteres (62%) say national issues are motivating them, while around half that (33%) say local issues are. In whose favor would that play?
Early Senate numbers (uncomfirmed . . .):
Democrats are leading in Pennsylvania (+15), Ohio (+14), New Jersey (+8), Rhode Island (+7), Virginia (+7), Montana (+9), Missouri (+2).
Republicans are leading in Tennessee (+4) and Arizona (+4).
5:45 -- First Polls Close in 15 Minutes, What to Watch: Indiana polls close at 6pm and offer the first opportunity for the Democrats to pick up House seats held by Republicans. (Republican Senator Richard Lugar is running unopposed.)
In Indiana's Second, Democrat Joe Donnelly is challenging two-term incumbent Republican Chris Chocola. Chocola defeated Donnelly in 2004, 54% to 45%; that year Bush received 56% of the voter in IN-02. The latest poll on the race put Donnelly barely ahead, 50% to 47%.
IN-09 gives the Dems another chance to turn a red House seat blue, as Democrat Baron Hill challenges Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel in their third campaign against each other for southern Indiana's 9th District congressional seat. Hill's lead in the polls is an average of 2.7%.
If the two Democratic challengers do very well, it could bode ill for the Republicans overall.
Watch the results here.
Kentucky polls also close at 6 pm Eastern time and the KY-02, 03, and 04 are worth watching. In KY-o2, the Republicans are expected to retain their seat, but the Republican seats in the 03 and 04 are being toughly challenged. If two of these three seats go to the Democrats, it would also be a great signal for the Democrats on what might be to come this evening.
Watch the Kentucky results here.
In Indiana's Second, Democrat Joe Donnelly is challenging two-term incumbent Republican Chris Chocola. Chocola defeated Donnelly in 2004, 54% to 45%; that year Bush received 56% of the voter in IN-02. The latest poll on the race put Donnelly barely ahead, 50% to 47%.
IN-09 gives the Dems another chance to turn a red House seat blue, as Democrat Baron Hill challenges Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel in their third campaign against each other for southern Indiana's 9th District congressional seat. Hill's lead in the polls is an average of 2.7%.
If the two Democratic challengers do very well, it could bode ill for the Republicans overall.
Watch the results here.
Kentucky polls also close at 6 pm Eastern time and the KY-02, 03, and 04 are worth watching. In KY-o2, the Republicans are expected to retain their seat, but the Republican seats in the 03 and 04 are being toughly challenged. If two of these three seats go to the Democrats, it would also be a great signal for the Democrats on what might be to come this evening.
Watch the Kentucky results here.
5:30 pm -- FBI Investigating Claimed Repub Voter Intimidation in VA: From MSNBC,
The Federal Bureau of Investigation is looking into the possibility of voter intimidation in the hard-fought U.S. Senate race between Sen. George Allen, a Republican, and Democratic challenger James Webb, officials told NBC News.
State officials alerted the Justice Department on Tuesday to several complaints of suspicious phone calls to voters who attempted to misdirect or confuse them about election day, Jean Jensen, Secretary of the Virginia State Board of Elections, told NBC’s David Shuster.
Jensen told NBC that she had been contacted by FBI agents. The FBI in Richmond refused to comment.
4:00 pm -- Voter Turnout Reports: In Virginia, turnout reports say that the numbers of voters coming out is roughly equal to presidential year turnout. Officals are suggesting that they are on a pace to see as much as 65% of eligible voters this year.
In Tennessee, reports are that the turnout is at about twice the rate expected for mid-terms.
Unusually heavy turnout is also being reported by officials in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
Missouri voters are also apparently turning out in Presidental election-year numbers, according to press reports there.
High turnouts, most agree, support the Democrats.
In Tennessee, reports are that the turnout is at about twice the rate expected for mid-terms.
Unusually heavy turnout is also being reported by officials in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
Missouri voters are also apparently turning out in Presidental election-year numbers, according to press reports there.
High turnouts, most agree, support the Democrats.
1:40 pm -- OnPoint Releases Key Senate Polls: OnPoint Polling released four polls today in key Senate races.
In the Missouri race, they put McCaskill ahead of Republican Talent by three points, 49-46.
In Montana, they give Democratic challenger Jon Tester five points (49%-44%) over incumbent Conrad Burns.
And in New Jersey, the OnPoint polling gives Democratic incumbent Menendez a 9-point advantage over Tom Kean, Jr., 50%-41%.
They see the Tennessee race as a one-point advanatage for Republican Corker over Democrat Ford in the battle to capture retiring Republican Senator Bill Frist's seat.
If the OnPoint figures -- based on polling done through yesterday -- hold up, the Dems will recapture the Senate.
The OnPoint polls are interactive telephone polls and were conducted yesterday, November 6, among a random sample of registered voters with a history of voting at least once in the past three years. The margin of error on these polls is about 4%.
If the OnPoint figures -- based on polling done through yesterday -- hold up, the Dems will recapture the Senate.
The OnPoint polls are interactive telephone polls and were conducted yesterday, November 6, among a random sample of registered voters with a history of voting at least once in the past three years. The margin of error on these polls is about 4%.
9:55 am -- SURVEYUSA Calls MO for MC: SurveyUSA comes in, not on the last day, but on the very last day.
Its (presumably) last poll on these midterms, released today, election day, shows Democrat Claire McCaskill with a six-point lead, 50%-44%, over Republican incumbent Jim Talent. This comes on the heals of a later poll issued yesterday by the SurveyUSA folks, showing McCaskill 9 points up. Today's release reflects a rolling average of the interviews conducted Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
Missouri is a must-win for the Democrats to have a shot at re-taking the Senate.
Election Day links:
Official Returns:
Maryland Polls Close 8pm Eastern Time.
Missouri Polls Close 8pm Eastern Time.
Montana Polls Close 10pm Eastern Time.
New Jersey Polls Close 8pm Eastern Time.
Pennsylvania Polls Close 8pm Eastern Time.
Rhode Island Polls Close 9pm Eastern Time.
Tennessee Polls Close 8pm Eastern Time.
Virginia Polls Close 7pm Eastern Time.
CNN Election Day Coverage
MSNBC Coverage
C-SPAN
PBS-Newshour Vote 2006 Coverage
Democracy, Use it or Lose it
"You better get out and vote"
-- Bob Weir, before leading the band into a rousing version of U.S. Blues to cap a three hour show at the Sherman Theatre, Stroudsburg, Penna., Nov. 6, 2006.
-- Bob Weir, before leading the band into a rousing version of U.S. Blues to cap a three hour show at the Sherman Theatre, Stroudsburg, Penna., Nov. 6, 2006.
U.S. Blues
Lyrics: Robert Hunter
Music: Jerry Garcia
Red and white, blue suede shoes
I'm Uncle Sam, how do you do
Gimme five, still alive
Ain't no luck, I learned to duck
Check my pulse, it don't change
Stay seventy two, come shine or rain
Wave the flag, pop the bag
Rock the boat, skin the goat
Wave that flag, wave it wide and high
Summertime done come and gone, my oh my
I'm Uncle Sam, that's who I am
Been hiding out, in a rock and roll band
Shake the hand that shook the hand
Of P. T. Barnum and Charlie Chan
Shine your shoes, light your fuse
Can you use them old U.S. Blues
I'll drink your health, share your wealth
Run your life, steal your wife
Wave that flag, wave it wide and high
Summertime done come and gone, my oh my
Back to back, chicken shack
Son of a gun, better change your act
We're all confused, what's to lose
You can call this song the United States Blues
Wave that flag, wave it wide and high
Summertime done come and gone, my oh my
I'm Uncle Sam, how do you do
Gimme five, still alive
Ain't no luck, I learned to duck
Check my pulse, it don't change
Stay seventy two, come shine or rain
Wave the flag, pop the bag
Rock the boat, skin the goat
Wave that flag, wave it wide and high
Summertime done come and gone, my oh my
I'm Uncle Sam, that's who I am
Been hiding out, in a rock and roll band
Shake the hand that shook the hand
Of P. T. Barnum and Charlie Chan
Shine your shoes, light your fuse
Can you use them old U.S. Blues
I'll drink your health, share your wealth
Run your life, steal your wife
Wave that flag, wave it wide and high
Summertime done come and gone, my oh my
Back to back, chicken shack
Son of a gun, better change your act
We're all confused, what's to lose
You can call this song the United States Blues
Wave that flag, wave it wide and high
Summertime done come and gone, my oh my
Monday, November 06, 2006
Webb's Got it Done
SurveyUSA has a new poll out on the Virginia race and it puts Webb up by 8 points among likely voters. It is not so much the bottom line as the crosstabs which I find so helpful for Webb. Webb is virtually even among males (47% of the voters), with Allen's once 25-point lead now reduced to two points. Although the gender vote is not broken down into racial subcategories, it looks like Webb could be pulling 40-45% of the white male vote.
Webb's closing the gender gap on men in Virginia is huge. Especially because Webb is pulling in the women's vote 57%-39%.
The only age group in which Webb trails is in 65+ (16% of voters), but even there Webb is down only three points. Webb is walking away with the black vote, with 71% support. Six of ten independents prefer Webb, as do 7/10 moderates.
If the third-party candidate were not in the race, Webb would likely be picking up nearly all of the 2% going that way. Once inside the polling booth, I expect half of the thrid-party supporters to vote for Webb or Allen, with 3 of 4 breaking for Webb. Turning the numbers inside out, I do not see a way for Allen to survive.
Webb's closing the gender gap on men in Virginia is huge. Especially because Webb is pulling in the women's vote 57%-39%.
The only age group in which Webb trails is in 65+ (16% of voters), but even there Webb is down only three points. Webb is walking away with the black vote, with 71% support. Six of ten independents prefer Webb, as do 7/10 moderates.
If the third-party candidate were not in the race, Webb would likely be picking up nearly all of the 2% going that way. Once inside the polling booth, I expect half of the thrid-party supporters to vote for Webb or Allen, with 3 of 4 breaking for Webb. Turning the numbers inside out, I do not see a way for Allen to survive.
Santorum Pollster Indicted
The desperate Santorum campaign has distributed an email claiming that the race has moved to within4-points. The poll that Vince Galko touts is supposedly by "McCulloch Research and Polling". I wasn't able to find a web address, or any other kind of address, for this "firm".
I was also able to find a story about the principal of the Firm, one republican operative named "Rod McCullough". Apparently he was indicted last year on campaign fraud charges and the case remains open, awaiting trial. It seems that the guy is pretty well-known in Illinois and has a less-than stellar reputation for credibility, at least according to a commentator who referred to him as "shady".
I've asked Vinny Galko for a link to the poll or a copy of it, but I ain't holding my breath for that one.
I was also able to find a story about the principal of the Firm, one republican operative named "Rod McCullough". Apparently he was indicted last year on campaign fraud charges and the case remains open, awaiting trial. It seems that the guy is pretty well-known in Illinois and has a less-than stellar reputation for credibility, at least according to a commentator who referred to him as "shady".
I've asked Vinny Galko for a link to the poll or a copy of it, but I ain't holding my breath for that one.
Thanks for the laugh, Vince.
New CNN Generic Poll -- Dems with 20-Point Lead
Today CNN released the results of a generic congressional poll taken over the weekend. The poll of over 1,000 voters, including over 600 likely voters (note the ratio, folks), gave the Democrats a 58-38 percent advantage over the republicans in House races among the likely voters.
That 20-point lead is huge. In 1994, when the Republicans took back control of both Houses, their generic lead was under 4%.
This is pointing towards a blow-back of tremendous proportions and, if it holds up nationwide, voters in close races could send 54 Democrats (including Leiberman) to the Senate and the Dems could end up with 45 new Democratic seats in the House.
A big beneficiary of this sweep could be Harold Ford, who has inched back up in the polls recently. Given the MOE in the Tennessee polls, arguments can be made for a 51% Ford win. The problem is that Ford is black and, in particularly (but not exclusively) in states likeVirginia Tennessee, a small percentage of white voters will tell a pollster they are voting for the black candidate when they have no intention of doing so. In a close race like this, that is enough to skew polls. BUT, if you see Harold Ford win in Virginia Tennessee, then look for surprises later in the evening. (Such as Arizona in the Senate, the Wyoming at-large House seat could then go blue, KT-5, WA-5, VA-10, OH-12, for example). Here in Pennsylvania, a sustained blow-back could send blow-hard Melissa Hart packing in PA-4. Wouldn't that be lovely?
That 20-point lead is huge. In 1994, when the Republicans took back control of both Houses, their generic lead was under 4%.
This is pointing towards a blow-back of tremendous proportions and, if it holds up nationwide, voters in close races could send 54 Democrats (including Leiberman) to the Senate and the Dems could end up with 45 new Democratic seats in the House.
A big beneficiary of this sweep could be Harold Ford, who has inched back up in the polls recently. Given the MOE in the Tennessee polls, arguments can be made for a 51% Ford win. The problem is that Ford is black and, in particularly (but not exclusively) in states like
Strategic Vision -- Santorum Down 12, Rendell Up 23
Strategic Vision released a second poll in a week on the Pennsylvania contest. I guess those silent voters still aren't talking, because Santorum's deficit has fallen to 12%, compared to the ten-point gap of a week ago. In the latest SV survey, 1200 likely voters said, in interviews taken between November 2 and 4, that 52% would pull Casey's lever, 40% Santorum's, and eight percent asked "What's a lever?". Last week, 12% were swtill clueless and the ones making up their minds all went to the challenger.
In the Gubernatorial race, Rendell's smackdown of Lynn Swann is approaching landslide proportions, with 58% in Fast Eddie's camp, 35% in Swann's, and 7% can't figure out how to get off the turnpike.
In the Gubernatorial race, Rendell's smackdown of Lynn Swann is approaching landslide proportions, with 58% in Fast Eddie's camp, 35% in Swann's, and 7% can't figure out how to get off the turnpike.
Weekend Senate Polls in Key States
In New Jersey, the Strategic Vision poll released today put Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez 7 points ahead of Republican Tommy Kean Junior. The republican smear machine seems to have come up short here -- SV reports that Menendez's favorables are higher than Kean's. Gallup released a poll today showing the NJ race to be a ten-point win for Menendez (50% - 40%) among likely voters. Similarly, Quinnipiac's poll, also released today, puts Menendex ahead by five points, 48-43, among likely voters.
In Virginia, the latest Rasmussen survey is putting the race at 49%-49%. The incumbent Republican George "Macaca" Allen is viewed "very unfavorably" by 29%, Webb by 20%. Webb's favorables are also higher than Allen's -- 55% to 50%. Before it became clear to the world that Allen was a bullying bigot, he was viewed favorably by 64%, Webb by 46%. Now, thirty percent (30%) of Webb voters say they are voting against Allen rather than for Webb. On both Iraq and the economy, Webb has a narrow edge when voters say which candidate they trust more. Although Gallup'sregistered likely voter poll has him down four three points today, Webb will win this one. (Among registered voters, Gallup has it tied at 42%.)
In Missouri, Rasmussen released a poll over the weekend showing McCaskill up by one point (49%-48%) over Republican incumbent Jim Talent. Rasmussen found that 92% of Democrats are supporting McCaskill and 91% of Republicans are backing Talent. The candidates have the same favorables and McCaskill's unfavorable is one-point higher than Talent's (49-48). The race is tight and might come down to turnout. Crossing fingers, but still looking for voters to break for McCaskill tomorrow. Gallup's poll, out today, says McCaskill is up by four points, 49% to 45% among likely voters, 46%-39% overall.
In Montana, Democratic challenger Jon Tester maintains his lead against ethics-challenged incumbent Conrad Burns, according to the most recent Rasmussen poll. The survey gives Tester 50% to Burns's 46%. Gallup's most recent poll, released today, puts the race at 50% for Tester, 41% for Burns among likely voters.
In Virginia, the latest Rasmussen survey is putting the race at 49%-49%. The incumbent Republican George "Macaca" Allen is viewed "very unfavorably" by 29%, Webb by 20%. Webb's favorables are also higher than Allen's -- 55% to 50%. Before it became clear to the world that Allen was a bullying bigot, he was viewed favorably by 64%, Webb by 46%. Now, thirty percent (30%) of Webb voters say they are voting against Allen rather than for Webb. On both Iraq and the economy, Webb has a narrow edge when voters say which candidate they trust more. Although Gallup's
In Missouri, Rasmussen released a poll over the weekend showing McCaskill up by one point (49%-48%) over Republican incumbent Jim Talent. Rasmussen found that 92% of Democrats are supporting McCaskill and 91% of Republicans are backing Talent. The candidates have the same favorables and McCaskill's unfavorable is one-point higher than Talent's (49-48). The race is tight and might come down to turnout. Crossing fingers, but still looking for voters to break for McCaskill tomorrow. Gallup's poll, out today, says McCaskill is up by four points, 49% to 45% among likely voters, 46%-39% overall.
In Montana, Democratic challenger Jon Tester maintains his lead against ethics-challenged incumbent Conrad Burns, according to the most recent Rasmussen poll. The survey gives Tester 50% to Burns's 46%. Gallup's most recent poll, released today, puts the race at 50% for Tester, 41% for Burns among likely voters.
Sunday, November 05, 2006
New PA-Sen Poll, Piling On
The newest poll on the Pennsylvania Senate Race bitch-slaps Rick Santorum with a 13-point deficit.
According to the Mason-Dixon survey, Casey leads the floundering incumbent 52% to 39% with 7% starving because they still haven't decided what to have for lunch yesterday.
According to the Mason-Dixon survey, Casey leads the floundering incumbent 52% to 39% with 7% starving because they still haven't decided what to have for lunch yesterday.
In more bad news for Virginia's third Senator, his big issues -- Immigration and Terrorism -- fall behind Iraq, the economy, health care, and government spending, among others, as issues people see as more important to their vote. When you are on the wrong side of the top four issues on people's minds, you have no business spending other people's money in a campaign.
Sixty-one percent say that Santorum has helped Bush lead the country in the wrong direction and 63% disapprove of the Santorum/Bush Iraq policies.
Twice as many say Santorum's attacks on Casey were unfair as the other way around.
But, Santorum's biggest problem? More than 65% of Pennsylvanians see themselves as Moderate or Liberal.
Saturday, November 04, 2006
Gutless
For the last couple of decades, the quintessential big fish in a very small pond has been Paul Kanjorski. The Congressman from PA-11 (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Hazleton), was a four-time loser before he finally won a primary and then went on to handily beat some rich kid (who later skipped town and this year ran a keystone-cops goobernatorial campaign in Colorado.) Kanjorski has served since then, and apparently became adept at funnelling money to family-owned businesses. Ask about his accomplishments and you get the grunting rut of the pork king.
Apparently Kanjo wandered into East Stroudsburg University the other day and had the audacity to tell the students that they need to be able to stand up for what they believe in and be willing to debate their opponents:
Hypocritical asshole.
He's a paper cowardly-lion.
Apparently Kanjo wandered into East Stroudsburg University the other day and had the audacity to tell the students that they need to be able to stand up for what they believe in and be willing to debate their opponents:
He distilled his life and political experience into three pieces of advice to the students. The first was to learn the art of debate and public speaking. "If you haven't got the guts to stand up and state your position, you're no threat to me or my opponent," he said.This wasted windbag wouldn't know courage if it were wearing a sign. This steaming pile of NEPA politician has the audacity to lecture college students on standing up to their opponents when he has refused to debate his opponent this year.
Hypocritical asshole.
He's a paper cowardly-lion.
Thursday, November 02, 2006
Predictions
It is time to put up.
I privately set for myself this date to cast my lot for a couple of reasons, the main one being I leave town today for a business trip and will have uncertain access to The Internets over the next few days.
So here are my predictions for the 2006 midterms. Overall, the Dems end up with a 40+ seat majority in the House and a one seat majority in the Senate, including Lieberman.
I took a quick survey of the PA poliblogs today and didn't see any who had stepped up yet -- com'on folks, no fair holding back until November 6. Put it on the line today.
I privately set for myself this date to cast my lot for a couple of reasons, the main one being I leave town today for a business trip and will have uncertain access to The Internets over the next few days.
So here are my predictions for the 2006 midterms. Overall, the Dems end up with a 40+ seat majority in the House and a one seat majority in the Senate, including Lieberman.
I took a quick survey of the PA poliblogs today and didn't see any who had stepped up yet -- com'on folks, no fair holding back until November 6. Put it on the line today.
PA-SEN Casey by 11 +/-
I got lucky, the race that I have been following most, the PA Senate, is the easiest to call. In fact, I called it in August when I said Santorum will lose by double digits.
Note that I said "Santorum loses". Casey neither deserves nor earned the win and the Party will come to regret getting into bed with the likes of him. It was not necessary, except to the Governor who ensured that Casey kept his nose out of this year's Gubernatorial. A bucket of warm spit in business attire could have beaten Rick Santorum this year, and that's nearly what we got.
Santorum's approvals have barely reached above 40 all year. As a two-term incumbent, sustained approval ratings under 40 are a deadly harbinger -- it indicates an electorate primed for a change.
Santorum helped out the Democrats by making every step a miss. His first advertisement of the campaign tried to take Casey and the Democrats to task for the faux incident at his faux home. What he succeeded in doing was give the Democrats a chance to remind everyone that when Rick first ran for office, he attacked his opponent for living in Virginia and promised the he would never do such a thing, and then did; and that Rick demanded and got hundreds of thousands in tax payer money to home school his brood in Virginia. His claim of Casey complicity was seen through as political piffle by everyone with a second grade education, but even worse was his ridiculous claims of his children being threatened (600 miles away) and the stupid police complaint he filed -- in Virginia!!?? Now there's a campaign team that has earned the right to sit home in '08.
But, that was just for starters. Santorum & Co. then picked up two issues to hammer home -- one made-up, one make-weight. His made-up movement -- Islamic Fascism -- moved no one. The follow through was horrible -- Rick running about flapping his gums over Nazis and appeasement and telling voters if they vote for Casey, they die. It was, as the last popular President said, an old dog that wasn't going to work anymore. Moderates were laughing at him.
His second issue, immigration, was a different kind of scare out the vote tactic, and it also failed, miserably. Outside Lou Barletta's bigoted mind and town, Santorum's "brown scare" took root nowhere. It consistently scored below "other" in polls asking voters what issues moved them this year.
Oh, but then there were the attack ads. Santorum's first big attack advertisement of the campaign -- the guys in the jail cell -- had great production value. It also had so many lies and distortions that every media outlet in the State was yapping about it the next day. Coming on the heels of the Penn Hills faux home fiasco, which Santorum was made to look eight yards short of credible, the jail cell advertisement sealed the deal in the minds of the voters -- nothing Santorum would thenceforth say about Bob Casey was going to stick, they had already decided that Santorum was a liar, and a loser.
That's why the debates didn't matter -- no one watched them and those that did, if their minds were not already completely made up on Santorum's credibility, they received his words with caution, and a ton of salt. Casey got at least one thing right -- Santorum was desperate, and he looked and sounded the part.
Casey deserves almost no credit for winning this one. He thumbed his nose at democracy by refusing to get out and talk to people, to attend public campaign events, to debate early and often (most of those joint appearances were not debates), by refusing to answer direct questions on where he stands on issues, and by making sure that a third choice was not going to be available to the voters. He is not an original thinker, he has no leadership capability, and he has no personal charm. He is not going to be a Senator of which Pennsylvania will be proud. But, at least he is not Rick Santorum.
What a choice we had.
Rick Santorum -- just like George Bush, but without the intellect; or,
Bob Casey -- just like, well, Rick Santorum, but without the balls.
Note that I said "Santorum loses". Casey neither deserves nor earned the win and the Party will come to regret getting into bed with the likes of him. It was not necessary, except to the Governor who ensured that Casey kept his nose out of this year's Gubernatorial. A bucket of warm spit in business attire could have beaten Rick Santorum this year, and that's nearly what we got.
Santorum's approvals have barely reached above 40 all year. As a two-term incumbent, sustained approval ratings under 40 are a deadly harbinger -- it indicates an electorate primed for a change.
Santorum helped out the Democrats by making every step a miss. His first advertisement of the campaign tried to take Casey and the Democrats to task for the faux incident at his faux home. What he succeeded in doing was give the Democrats a chance to remind everyone that when Rick first ran for office, he attacked his opponent for living in Virginia and promised the he would never do such a thing, and then did; and that Rick demanded and got hundreds of thousands in tax payer money to home school his brood in Virginia. His claim of Casey complicity was seen through as political piffle by everyone with a second grade education, but even worse was his ridiculous claims of his children being threatened (600 miles away) and the stupid police complaint he filed -- in Virginia!!?? Now there's a campaign team that has earned the right to sit home in '08.
But, that was just for starters. Santorum & Co. then picked up two issues to hammer home -- one made-up, one make-weight. His made-up movement -- Islamic Fascism -- moved no one. The follow through was horrible -- Rick running about flapping his gums over Nazis and appeasement and telling voters if they vote for Casey, they die. It was, as the last popular President said, an old dog that wasn't going to work anymore. Moderates were laughing at him.
His second issue, immigration, was a different kind of scare out the vote tactic, and it also failed, miserably. Outside Lou Barletta's bigoted mind and town, Santorum's "brown scare" took root nowhere. It consistently scored below "other" in polls asking voters what issues moved them this year.
Oh, but then there were the attack ads. Santorum's first big attack advertisement of the campaign -- the guys in the jail cell -- had great production value. It also had so many lies and distortions that every media outlet in the State was yapping about it the next day. Coming on the heels of the Penn Hills faux home fiasco, which Santorum was made to look eight yards short of credible, the jail cell advertisement sealed the deal in the minds of the voters -- nothing Santorum would thenceforth say about Bob Casey was going to stick, they had already decided that Santorum was a liar, and a loser.
That's why the debates didn't matter -- no one watched them and those that did, if their minds were not already completely made up on Santorum's credibility, they received his words with caution, and a ton of salt. Casey got at least one thing right -- Santorum was desperate, and he looked and sounded the part.
Casey deserves almost no credit for winning this one. He thumbed his nose at democracy by refusing to get out and talk to people, to attend public campaign events, to debate early and often (most of those joint appearances were not debates), by refusing to answer direct questions on where he stands on issues, and by making sure that a third choice was not going to be available to the voters. He is not an original thinker, he has no leadership capability, and he has no personal charm. He is not going to be a Senator of which Pennsylvania will be proud. But, at least he is not Rick Santorum.
What a choice we had.
Rick Santorum -- just like George Bush, but without the intellect; or,
Bob Casey -- just like, well, Rick Santorum, but without the balls.
PA-GOV Rendell by 18+/-
I didn't give much coverage to this race. Mainly because it never was a race. A political novice, an ex-jock at that, going up against likely the best Pennsylvania pol of this generation. It was a done deal in May. Fast Eddy has been unnecessarily piling on, with advertisements, big regional money grants, and fundraising like you've never imagined. Not because he was ever in a race. He wants the big numbers behind him next week to show he's the player who can deliver Pennsylvania to the Dems in '08. Dick Cheney may be a shooting veep, Ed Rendell is shooting for veep.
US-HOUSE Key PA Races Dems +4
I only have a handle on a handful. These are the races I have been glancing at now and again:
PA-4, Melissa Hart (R)(I) over Jason Altimire (D)
PA-6, Lois Murphy (D) defeats Jim Gerlach (R)(I)
PA-7, Admiral Joe Sestak (D) torpedoes crazy Curt Weldon (R)(I)
PA-8, Pat Murphy (D), beats Mike Fitzpatrick (R)(I)
PA-10, Chris Carney (D), chokes off Don Sherwood (R)(I)
US SENATE
I don't want to call this one today -- but I scheduled today to make my picks so I shall.
Not so very long ago, I was preparing a piece taking certain so-called liberal bloggers to task for going with Casey as part of a take-back-the-Senate strategy. My argument was two-fold, (1) anyone could beat Santorum, especially a really, really, REALLY smart college professor who happened top be a REAL main-street Democrat, and (2) there was no chance to take back the Senate.
I was and am still correct on the first point, but reality has interfered with the second. The Senate is in play.
The close races are Montana, New Jersey, Missouri, Virginia, and Tennessee. The Dems need four of those five to take back the Senate.
In Montana, Democrat Jon Tester is taking on Republican incumbent Conrad Burns. Burns closed a double-digit gap, and the race remains in the margin of error. However, after the first poll in April, Burns never won another poll in this race. Big Sky country is ready for a change from the go along, get along, gimme money and power, politics of Conrad Burns. Jon Tester picks up a seat in the Senate for the Dems on November 7.
In New Jersey, "incumbent" Democrat Bob Menendez gave us a scare -- with the electorate partially and temporarily succumbing to Tommy Kean Junior's attack ads. Menendez has recovered nicely and is headed to a win there, preserving a seat for the Democrats.
In Missouri, Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill is giving Republican incumbent Jim Talent whatfor. She has led through much of the race, but the recent uproar over the Michael Fox advertisement and negative ads (which the local newspapers say make false charges) by Jim Talent have put this race in the dead heat category. There is also a pro-stem-cell research amendment on the ballot. Talent opposes stem-cell research, McCaskill and 53% of her fellow-voters, favor it. McCaskill wins this squeaker because on election day, the voters here will break for change. McCaskill turns a red Senate seat blue.
Virginia. Old Dominion was certain to send bigoted bully George Allen back to the Senate where he could do the most harm. But his true colors shined through one fine day when he decided to bully a young man of color, who happened to be toting a full-color video camera. Thank goodness for YouTube. It has been neck and neck since then. It is easy to understand the Virginia voters' dilemma -- do they send a bigoted bully back to Congress or elect a sexist pig to replace him? I think the good people of Virginia will decide that they'd rather support a sexist pig than a bigoted bully.
Webb, a former Republican who served as Secretary of the Navy in Reagan's White House, will take this one away from his former colleagues. George Allen, like Rick Santorum will have to give up his '08 Presidential fantasy, too. Thank GOODNESS for YouTube!
That is enough to give the Democrats 51 seats, which is good since it looks like Harold Ford will not pick up Bill Frist's abandoned seat in Tennessee.
US HOUSE
If you have to ask, you haven't been paying attention. Dems take control, going away.
Okay, you're turn, dear readers and fellow bloggers.
Not so very long ago, I was preparing a piece taking certain so-called liberal bloggers to task for going with Casey as part of a take-back-the-Senate strategy. My argument was two-fold, (1) anyone could beat Santorum, especially a really, really, REALLY smart college professor who happened top be a REAL main-street Democrat, and (2) there was no chance to take back the Senate.
I was and am still correct on the first point, but reality has interfered with the second. The Senate is in play.
The close races are Montana, New Jersey, Missouri, Virginia, and Tennessee. The Dems need four of those five to take back the Senate.
In Montana, Democrat Jon Tester is taking on Republican incumbent Conrad Burns. Burns closed a double-digit gap, and the race remains in the margin of error. However, after the first poll in April, Burns never won another poll in this race. Big Sky country is ready for a change from the go along, get along, gimme money and power, politics of Conrad Burns. Jon Tester picks up a seat in the Senate for the Dems on November 7.
In New Jersey, "incumbent" Democrat Bob Menendez gave us a scare -- with the electorate partially and temporarily succumbing to Tommy Kean Junior's attack ads. Menendez has recovered nicely and is headed to a win there, preserving a seat for the Democrats.
In Missouri, Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill is giving Republican incumbent Jim Talent whatfor. She has led through much of the race, but the recent uproar over the Michael Fox advertisement and negative ads (which the local newspapers say make false charges) by Jim Talent have put this race in the dead heat category. There is also a pro-stem-cell research amendment on the ballot. Talent opposes stem-cell research, McCaskill and 53% of her fellow-voters, favor it. McCaskill wins this squeaker because on election day, the voters here will break for change. McCaskill turns a red Senate seat blue.
Virginia. Old Dominion was certain to send bigoted bully George Allen back to the Senate where he could do the most harm. But his true colors shined through one fine day when he decided to bully a young man of color, who happened to be toting a full-color video camera. Thank goodness for YouTube. It has been neck and neck since then. It is easy to understand the Virginia voters' dilemma -- do they send a bigoted bully back to Congress or elect a sexist pig to replace him? I think the good people of Virginia will decide that they'd rather support a sexist pig than a bigoted bully.
Webb, a former Republican who served as Secretary of the Navy in Reagan's White House, will take this one away from his former colleagues. George Allen, like Rick Santorum will have to give up his '08 Presidential fantasy, too. Thank GOODNESS for YouTube!
That is enough to give the Democrats 51 seats, which is good since it looks like Harold Ford will not pick up Bill Frist's abandoned seat in Tennessee.
US HOUSE
If you have to ask, you haven't been paying attention. Dems take control, going away.
Okay, you're turn, dear readers and fellow bloggers.
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
Proof -- Rick Santorum is a Fraud
I have stumbled upon incontrovertible proof that Rick Santorum is a fraud -- he doesn't even EXIST!!!
According to the always-reliable website, HowManyofMe.Com, there are ZERO -- none, nada, zilch -- people in the United States named "Rick Santorum":
According to the always-reliable website, HowManyofMe.Com, there are ZERO -- none, nada, zilch -- people in the United States named "Rick Santorum":
| Rick Santorum | ||
|
Which irreducibly leads us to one of two possibilities -- Rick Santorum is a fraud and impostor or, more intriguingly, he is an illegal alien.
I am leaning towards the latter -- Rick Santorum is a self-hating, illegal (likely gay) alien.
I am leaning towards the latter -- Rick Santorum is a self-hating, illegal (likely gay) alien.
Yeah, that's the ticket.
(h/t to The Power of Trinity for the lead)
p.s. While there are over 1,500 souls burdened with my name, my children are more individual. One is in single digits and one is in low doubles. And they are "real" names, not "Apple", or "Dweezil", or "Road Kill" (although I did argue for the latter -- to toughen her up).
One More Reason to Vote Democratic Nov. 7
From the AP today:
You have to wonder, does Bush think he has a choice about the Vice-President? (Remeber, this is a guy who refers to Canada as "overseas".) Someone would tell him that the V-P serves at the pleasure of the Constitution, not the President.WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush said Wednesday he wants Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney to remain in his administration until the end of his presidency, extending a job guarantee to two of the most criticized members of his team. . . .
He refused to even say whether he could work effectively with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi or Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid if Democrats won either the House or Senate, or both. . . .
Democrats and Republicans alike have called for Rumsfeld's resignation, arguing he has mishandled the war in Iraq where more than 2,800 members of the U.S. military have died since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003. Cheney has faced sharp criticism for his hardline views and is viewed favorably by only about a third of Americans in polls. Bush said that "both those men are doing fantastic jobs and I strongly support them."
The Real Joke
Senator, the real joke is your record and the miserable failure of an administration which you have worked so hard to prop up. Unfortunately, your jokes kill.
Help Joe Sestak - Take Action by 7pm TODAY!
From the Sestak Campaign:
Despite what you may have read recently regarding the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) pulling its support from my opponent (the sitting Vice-Chairman of the Armed Services Committee), the NRCC has not. This morning, the NRCC placed a new negative attack ad against me. This is a fight to the end!
I simply need additional funds today to "push back" and to place my ads in greater rotation through election day -- to maintain our lead in the polls! My ad buy is being placed tomorrow, thus your funds today are critical.
Please contribute $25, $50, $100, $250 to ensure victory on the 7th:
http://sestakforcongress.com/take-action/contribute/
Second, Senator Kerry, who has been a tremendous supporter of my campaign, is holding a one-day contest that ends today at 7 p.m. on his website. The two House candidates with the largest number of votes will be selected to have an e-mail blast sent out on their behalf to Senator Kerry's 3 million donor base.
With your vote for me on Senator Kerry's website, we have the possibility of raising additional funds to offset this latest negative attack by the RNCC and my opponent. I would be honored if you would vote for me.Please vote: http://www.johnkerry.com/action/youdecide/
We are almost on the verge of victory, in what has already been an incredible out-pouring of support from you. I know it is alot to ask, but if you could see your way to take action on the two steps above, I would be extremely grateful.
Kerry's Prepared Text
Although the wingnutz are still all gaga over the Kerry gaffe, The Washington Post got a copy of Kerry's prepared text for the Monday California speech. Here's what The Post had to say:
The text had Kerry starting out with a couple of jokes about Republicans and Bush: "You know, yesterday we turned the clock back an hour. Actually just Democrats did. Republicans keep trying to turn back the clock to 1958."That was followed by, "Yesterday I was in President Bush's home state of Texas. He no longer lives there. Now he lives in the state of denial."
The text continued: "It's great to be here with college students. I can't overstress the importance of a great education. Do you know where you end up if you don't study, if you aren't smart, if you're intellectually lazy? You end up getting us stuck in a war in Iraq. Just ask President Bush."
The prepared remarks then had Kerry saying, "But in all seriousness, you know, California has the 6th largest economy in the world -- larger than most nations. It is vitally important to our success as a nation. And the future of California lies with the innovations, expertise, and achievements of our young people."
Instead of delivering the lines as written, Kerry said after the "state of denial" remark: "You know, education, if you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. If you don't, you get stuck in Iraq."
Of course, Tony Snow, Bush, Commedian Rush Limbaugh, and the other Repeater Beacons will continue to talk about Kerry. That's understandable because it shoves off the radar unimportant news, like this:
or, this:Originally published November 1, 2006, 1:15 PM ESTBAGHDAD, IRAQ // Bombs struck a police patrol, a market and a bridge in Baghdad today as violence across Iraq left more than 20 people dead, while police searched for dozens of Shiites abducted by suspected Sunni gunmen along a dangerous highway north of the capital.
The U.S. military also reported the death of a soldier in fighting Tuesday in volatile Anbar province west of Baghdad, raising to 104 the number of American service members killed in combat in October -- the fourth deadliest month since the war began.
Nov. 1, 2006, 4:45AM BAGHDAD, Iraq — More than 40 Shiites were abducted along a notoriously dangerous highway just north of Baghdad, police said today, and the death toll from a suicide bombing at a wedding party rose to 23, including nine children. At least eight other people were either found dead or slain in new attacks today, including one person killed in a car bomb attack in Baghdad's central market, which wounded five others, police Lt. Ali Hassan said. The death toll in the market attack was likely to rise, he said.Miserable failure.
PA-06: Murphy by 5 Over Gerlach
According to Reuters/Zogby polls released today, Lois Murphy leads Republican incumbent Jim Gerlach 49% to 44%.
This comes on the heals of yesterday's Constituent Dynamics poll also putting the Democratic challenger 5 points ahead of the Abramoff-tied incumbent, 51%-46%.
This comes on the heals of yesterday's Constituent Dynamics poll also putting the Democratic challenger 5 points ahead of the Abramoff-tied incumbent, 51%-46%.
All Local Politics iz National
Yeah, yeah. "All politics is local", "George Bush is not on the ballot", &ct. But not this year.
This year we have mid-terms that are a true national referendum like we have never seen before. I've tried to make this point inelegantly many times.
Take a gander at what someone who is thoughtful and knowledgeable and articulate (i.e., take a break from Y.T.) has to say about such things. From Will Divide, over at Huck and Jim, my favorite small blog with big ideas:
This year we have mid-terms that are a true national referendum like we have never seen before. I've tried to make this point inelegantly many times.
Take a gander at what someone who is thoughtful and knowledgeable and articulate (i.e., take a break from Y.T.) has to say about such things. From Will Divide, over at Huck and Jim, my favorite small blog with big ideas:
All politics are local, but all elections now are national. It astonishes me how completely national themes and concerns have turned the off-year into a national referendum. Part of it is certainly the nature of the Iraq war and I think the GOP has only itself to blame after first running into this season fully behind their dim standard bearer and the rightness of his cause. But, here again, what gains they made in the last decade were all due to nationalizing local races. This is a world of their own making.Read it all. My favorite snippet is his toss away on Charlie Rangel, the most underestimated man in Congress:A amplifying this trend is the effect of new media which the Dems have used pretty well in targeting races, collecting money and launching low-cost, flexible ad campaigns.
GOP losses will be at the bloody end of painful. Hedge if you feel like it, but since the weekend GOP campaigners been puking on themselves in desperation. The Oval Office squirt went from clueless ("We'll retain both houses") to vicious (Dems = Terrorist Stooges) in the space of five days. I say the House and Senate, going away.
Lately Charlie Rangel . . . has been smiling like the cat who not only swallowed the canary, but has seven or eight more stashed away in case he's feeling peckish later."Squalid little man" . . . . great stuff.
More New PA-SEN Polls
Two more released today, in addition to the Keystone Poll. Quinnipiac University's poll puts Santorum down by ten points (52%-42%) among what they call "likely voters" (they have three times refused our request for clarification on how they determine a likely voter). This is a four-point gain drop in the spread for the Democrat over the previous Quinnipiac poll numbers for likely voters.
Also out today, Strategic Vision's latest, which makes it also a ten-point deficit for the failing Santorum, 49%-39%. Last month's SV poll had Casey up by seven.
I have to go now, my toast is ready, as is Santorum's.
Also out today, Strategic Vision's latest, which makes it also a ten-point deficit for the failing Santorum, 49%-39%. Last month's SV poll had Casey up by seven.
I have to go now, my toast is ready, as is Santorum's.
New Keystone Poll -- Santorum Down 15 Points
With less than a week until election day, two-term incumbent Rick Santorum has fallen behind his Democratic challenger by 15 points according to the October Keystone Poll. State Treasurer Bobby Casey, Jr. leads Santorum among registered voters 53% to 38%, with 9% undecided. Santorum has not moved at all from over last month's Keystone, while it appears that all of the third-party vote and all of the undecideds are moving to the Democratic candidate.
Casey had a whopping one-month 8-point increase in support for the challenger. The previous Keystone included Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli, who garnered 5% support in that poll. Casey & Co. had Romanelli thrown off the ballot. Casey's increase equals the total of Romanelli support and the drop in undecideds.
Santorum's wacked-out attacks on Casey over the last month (see, Classless Santorum Claims Treason, Santorum and the Four Horsemen of Calumny, Santorum: 'It's 1930's Germany All Over Again'!, and Santorum: 'Nazis on My Mind') have succeeded in giving the incumbent Senator his highest unfavorable rating since 1994, when the Keystone Poll began taking the voter's temperature on Santorum -- 46%. During the last month, Casey's favorables rose from 29% to 39%.
Santorum has been emphasizing the war on terror and immigration in his scare out the vote campaign. That has been as ineffective as his attacks on Casey. Those issues rank below "Something Else" on the list of issues with which respondents to the Keystone Poll are concerned.
The poll also shows that 79% of Pennsylvanians want to keep abortion legal and 51% want tighter gun restrictions. Both candidates are on the wrong side of Pennsylvania voters on those two issues.
Oh, yeah, the poll suggests that there might be a Gubernatorial election next week. Sumguy named Rendell seems to have a 25-point lead (and a 54% favorable) over some ex-jock.
Casey had a whopping one-month 8-point increase in support for the challenger. The previous Keystone included Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli, who garnered 5% support in that poll. Casey & Co. had Romanelli thrown off the ballot. Casey's increase equals the total of Romanelli support and the drop in undecideds.
Santorum's wacked-out attacks on Casey over the last month (see, Classless Santorum Claims Treason, Santorum and the Four Horsemen of Calumny, Santorum: 'It's 1930's Germany All Over Again'!, and Santorum: 'Nazis on My Mind') have succeeded in giving the incumbent Senator his highest unfavorable rating since 1994, when the Keystone Poll began taking the voter's temperature on Santorum -- 46%. During the last month, Casey's favorables rose from 29% to 39%.
Santorum has been emphasizing the war on terror and immigration in his scare out the vote campaign. That has been as ineffective as his attacks on Casey. Those issues rank below "Something Else" on the list of issues with which respondents to the Keystone Poll are concerned.
The poll also shows that 79% of Pennsylvanians want to keep abortion legal and 51% want tighter gun restrictions. Both candidates are on the wrong side of Pennsylvania voters on those two issues.
Oh, yeah, the poll suggests that there might be a Gubernatorial election next week. Sumguy named Rendell seems to have a 25-point lead (and a 54% favorable) over some ex-jock.
Carpetbagger
Rick Santorum's alleged Penn Hills home sat vacant for months, and until conveniently one week prior to the election he showed up and scared his neighbors. The citizens of Pennsylvania deserve to have a U.S. Senator who is going to reside in Pennsylvania, not just hand out candy on Halloween. To remain connected to the people of Pennsylvania it is important for a U.S. Senator to be an "inhabitant" of the state that elects him.
For years we have never seen anyone at Santorum's alleged residence and tonight he shows up with a camera crew from the O'Reilly Factor?" "The working men and women of Pennsylvania will see this for what it is. A staged, phony night at a home he does not live in," said Anna Lombardo a Penn Hills Neighbor.
The entire residency flap is just another in a series of errors resulting from Santorum's arrogance and sense of entitlement. The law permits a member of Congress to live in D.C. during a term of service without losing legal residency in the home district. (But note, the law expressly says D.C. -- not anywhere else.) It was not that Santorum moved his residence to Virginia which caused this problem for him.
He was elected, in part, based on vicious attack ads claiming his opponent had done the same and promising never to move to Virginia. Then, in his arrogance, he did exactly the same. Compounding his arrogance, he treated his former fellow-Pennsylvania residents like idiots and denied that he had moved. He claimed to live in a house which was too small by half for his brood, which was rented out to others during most of his last (and final) term in office, and for the last six months has been empty -- without furniture or carpeting.
But even that wasn't enough to create this flap. It was then his sense of entitlement that was the final straw -- he demanded and received hundreds of thousands of dollars from the tax payers in the school district where his empty house stood. The money was used to indoctrinate his children in the perverse ideology of the Church of Sanatoriumism (they called it "home schooling").
Santorum lied to his electorate when he promised never to move his family to Virginia, he lied after he moved about moving, and then he demanded that the citizens of the school district turn their tax money over to him so that he could protect his dozen children from the savages at the Virginia public schools, and ensure that they grow up steeped in the same twisted mind ideology that Santorum spews for any microphone with power.
If Santorum's fevered brain is looking for the reason for his under-40 approvals and his imminent retirement from the United States Senate, all he needs to do is take a hard look at the insane mental munchkin in the mirror.
Buh-bye, Rick.
(h/t Modesto Bee for the pic)
He was elected, in part, based on vicious attack ads claiming his opponent had done the same and promising never to move to Virginia. Then, in his arrogance, he did exactly the same. Compounding his arrogance, he treated his former fellow-Pennsylvania residents like idiots and denied that he had moved. He claimed to live in a house which was too small by half for his brood, which was rented out to others during most of his last (and final) term in office, and for the last six months has been empty -- without furniture or carpeting.
But even that wasn't enough to create this flap. It was then his sense of entitlement that was the final straw -- he demanded and received hundreds of thousands of dollars from the tax payers in the school district where his empty house stood. The money was used to indoctrinate his children in the perverse ideology of the Church of Sanatoriumism (they called it "home schooling").
Santorum lied to his electorate when he promised never to move his family to Virginia, he lied after he moved about moving, and then he demanded that the citizens of the school district turn their tax money over to him so that he could protect his dozen children from the savages at the Virginia public schools, and ensure that they grow up steeped in the same twisted mind ideology that Santorum spews for any microphone with power.
If Santorum's fevered brain is looking for the reason for his under-40 approvals and his imminent retirement from the United States Senate, all he needs to do is take a hard look at the insane mental munchkin in the mirror.
Buh-bye, Rick.
(h/t Modesto Bee for the pic)
Non-Partisan GOTV Campaign
From e-robin:
You Don't Have to Live in PA to Get in on Some Midterm-Season Fun
PA Action, working with Women's Voices Women's Votes and US Action, is working a non-partisan campaign on the phones and on the ground to turnout likely progressive female voters this election. You've probably read about WVWV over at MyDD. As Matt said in that post:
Right-wingers have two giant fears. The first is if evangelicals stop voting, as they did from the 1920s until the late 1970s. The second is if single women start voting.
That second part is our plan and you can help from the comfort and convenience of your home. We need four hundred people to each call one hundred names on our list. That's about two hours of work per person. Trust me, it goes by more quickly than you may imagine. The script is short and direct. The focus voters are people we need to get to the polls if we want to see some change in the direction this country. Please make the jump and find out how you can spend a couple of hours helping to get this country back on track.
Thanks! Here's what you do:
1. Please remember that this calling is non-partisan. We aren't encouraging anyone to vote for any candidate in particular. We are working on turning out women who are likely progressive voters.
2. Go to PA Action's page at Pop Vox.
3. Register to make calls.
4. Login
5. When you are ready to make calls, click on the Make Calls link.
6. Select a campaign. You can choose between Bucks and Delaware Counties.
7. Click MAKE CALLS
8. Enter the phone number you are calling from. The system will call you and from the time you answer, you don't need to touch the phone again. In fact, I hooked up an earpiece because I kept hanging up after I talked to voters, which disconnected me from the system - no good. It's a hard habit to break if the phone is in your hand.
9. Your phone will ring. when you answer it, you'll hear music until you click "Ready for Call." Then Pop Vox will look for a voter for you to talk to. Please be ready to go as soon as you hear the beep otherwise there's an annoying delay on the voter's end.
10. When you get a voter, read the script and get the answer to the question, which is: Do you plan to vote on November 7?
11. Do not hang up the phone! Click "End Call."
12. Fill out the response fields.
13. Click "Save Call."
14. Click "New Call."
15. Click "Ready for Call" and the whole process starts over again.
Two hours. 100 voters. Help bring real change to southeastern PA and the country.
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