Our most optimistic expectations were way off, but so were the polls. If we were counting on a grassroots swell to take a complacent Casey campaign by surprise, I thought Chuck Pennacchio needed to be pulling double-digits in the polls by mid-April. That never materialized, although I was somewhat heartened with his increase from 2 to 4 points late in the campaign. But those were insufficient numbers, translating into only around 150,000 votes, when I felt that 350,000 would be needed to win.
As it was, it appears that Chuck's supporters did turn out in greater percentages than Democrats as a whole -- assuming 3.8 million registered Demcorats in Pennsylvania, and assuming those 4% numbers were correct, then 42% of Chuck supporters turned out for the election, as opposed to a little under 19% of Democrats as a whole. (While the same logic would show that Sandals' supporters came out at a 60% clip, I think the polls did under represent his support, which came nearly exclusively from Philadelphia.) THAT much of our expectations did hold -- although I was frankly hoping for a 60% turnout for Chuck. I thought if Chuck could get into the 12-15% range in the polls by mid-April, then the much, much greater enthusiasm of his supporters would carry the day against the lackluster support for Casey.
Chuck's focus on the "super voters" was a smart one -- get to those 15% of registered Democrats most likely to vote on election day. (Although the campaign volunteers seemingly applied differing standards of measurement for "super voters" -- some included only those voters who voted in each of the last five elections, others those who voted in the last three elections, etc.) But I never fully bought into the logic that the likely voters were being under represented in the polls.
But what the race means to me is more than analysis of the vote -- which I intend to do more of as I gather the breakdowns over time. The race was important because Chuck and his team managed to force some public examination of issues which need to be discussed. Universal Health Care. Living Wage. Equal Rights. Impeachment. PACs.
Now that we have Casey v. Santorum, these issues will again fade into the immediate background, as both men either agree with one another on each of these issues, or at least agree that the issues aren't worth talking about. But, the ripples that flow from the Pennacchio campaign will continue to grow with the legions of young people -- and the dozens, at least, of middle-aged farts like me -- who learned (or re-learned) the importance of engaging in the public discourse, of speaking truth to power, of fighting the good fight even against near-universal opposition and very long odds.
The campaign claimed 6,000 supporters on its mailing list. Now there are 6,000 progressive voices across the Commonwealth who can be the start of something bigger -- a solid progressive voice in Pennsylvania politics. It has started, with some from the Pennacchio campaign already obtaining or seeking County and State Democratic committee positions. The Pennacchio people need to encourage more of this -- provide an information source for how the state party operates, a primer for the young and young at heart on getting involved in a meaningful manner, and a source of organized support for their efforts.
The Pennacchio campaign activated many, many young people across this state and inspired many aging liberals. Let's hope that they can figure out how to keep that movement going forward, broadening, and deepening.
As it was, it appears that Chuck's supporters did turn out in greater percentages than Democrats as a whole -- assuming 3.8 million registered Demcorats in Pennsylvania, and assuming those 4% numbers were correct, then 42% of Chuck supporters turned out for the election, as opposed to a little under 19% of Democrats as a whole. (While the same logic would show that Sandals' supporters came out at a 60% clip, I think the polls did under represent his support, which came nearly exclusively from Philadelphia.) THAT much of our expectations did hold -- although I was frankly hoping for a 60% turnout for Chuck. I thought if Chuck could get into the 12-15% range in the polls by mid-April, then the much, much greater enthusiasm of his supporters would carry the day against the lackluster support for Casey.
Chuck's focus on the "super voters" was a smart one -- get to those 15% of registered Democrats most likely to vote on election day. (Although the campaign volunteers seemingly applied differing standards of measurement for "super voters" -- some included only those voters who voted in each of the last five elections, others those who voted in the last three elections, etc.) But I never fully bought into the logic that the likely voters were being under represented in the polls.
But what the race means to me is more than analysis of the vote -- which I intend to do more of as I gather the breakdowns over time. The race was important because Chuck and his team managed to force some public examination of issues which need to be discussed. Universal Health Care. Living Wage. Equal Rights. Impeachment. PACs.
Now that we have Casey v. Santorum, these issues will again fade into the immediate background, as both men either agree with one another on each of these issues, or at least agree that the issues aren't worth talking about. But, the ripples that flow from the Pennacchio campaign will continue to grow with the legions of young people -- and the dozens, at least, of middle-aged farts like me -- who learned (or re-learned) the importance of engaging in the public discourse, of speaking truth to power, of fighting the good fight even against near-universal opposition and very long odds.
The campaign claimed 6,000 supporters on its mailing list. Now there are 6,000 progressive voices across the Commonwealth who can be the start of something bigger -- a solid progressive voice in Pennsylvania politics. It has started, with some from the Pennacchio campaign already obtaining or seeking County and State Democratic committee positions. The Pennacchio people need to encourage more of this -- provide an information source for how the state party operates, a primer for the young and young at heart on getting involved in a meaningful manner, and a source of organized support for their efforts.
The Pennacchio campaign activated many, many young people across this state and inspired many aging liberals. Let's hope that they can figure out how to keep that movement going forward, broadening, and deepening.
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