Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Polls Confirm: Bob Casey Jr. Can't Hold Lead vs Santorum

Today a Keystone Poll (reported in advance of release by Politics PA) shows Bob Casey's lead over Rick Santorum is down to 6 points. The candidates are firmly entrenched in the sub-50% support range, with Casey at 47% of respondents and Santorum at 41.

At one time, some polls put Casey's lead at at least 20 points. Before the primary has even ended, Casey's lead has plunged a startling 14 points.

Those following this race closely are not at all surprised. The biggest reason for the drop is not anything Santorum has done in the campaign -- he's barely started going. Rather, many put the blams aquarely on Casey. An early Quinnipiac Poll strongly suggested that once the voters knew about Casey's strident anti-choice positions, his lead practically vanished.

Later, a Zogby/OpEd poll was the first to poll "educated" voters -- respondents were advised of candidate positions on major issues, as described by the candidates or their materials -- and to poll all of the Democratic candidates individually against Santorum. Casey was the weakest of the three, head to head against Santorum, when people were advised of his positions.

The conclusion was becoming obvious -- the more people learned about Bob Casey Jr., the less likely they were to vote for him:

When people find out about candidate positions on key issues, Casey plummets from a twelve point lead to a dead heat, with a non-significant two point lead. The pollster's analysis:
Santorum loses when matched with any of the democratic candidates. Both of the self identified progressive democratic candidates draw higher percentages than Casey, with Pennacchio having the largest percentage of votes against Santorum, at a not quite significant 4.4 points higher than Casey. Casey, at non-significant levels, actually gets MORE votes from Republicans once they find out more about him and Santorum.
Santorum wants Casey as his opponent because he wins the demographic game. Casey loses massively in some categories, when voters find out about Casey, which Santorum will sure insure.
With Casey having clearly demonstrated he is not the right man to take on Santorum, it is time for the Democrats in Pennsylvania to look for the person who CAN beat Santorum -- Chuck Pennacchio.

The same polls that show Casey tumbling when voters learn about his Santorum-lite positions, show Chuck as the strongest Democrat in the race. HE gives voters something to choose -- a Santorum fighter, not a Santorum-liter.


PennPatriot Blog said...

A Conservatives Take On Latest Poll. Just goest to show that liberals and conservative can agree on somehtings.

A Big Fat Slob said...

Great Stuff.