Rasmussen PA SEN Poll & More

The Rasmussen poll we told you about yesterday in Classless Santorum Claims Treason, was released today and you can spy it here. Our call, of 55% for Casey, 42% for Santorum, was correct (we have one fine birdie, there). Here's how the pollster sees it:

It doesn't look like Republican Senator Rick Santorum will be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat. This race remains in the Democrat's column for our Senate Balance of Power summary.

The incumbent gained five percentage points of voter support since our October 5 survey of the race, and a further point since October 16. But as undecided and other voters break for one of the major-party candidates, Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. has been gaining as well. Thus Casey still leads Santorum by the same thirteen-point margin, now 55% to 42%.

Santorum loses almost a fourth of the GOP base and a full 25% of conservatives to Casey, who shares the conservative opposition to abortion and gun control. If newly revived concerns about judicial activism and gay unions are helping struggling Republicans elsewhere, that's not the case in Pennsylvania.

Elsewhere, Rasmussen sees Lamont gaining on Lieberman and, a week shy of election day, sees it as Leiberman 48%, Lamont 40%, Sumrepub Guy 9%. Good run up for Lamont, but too little, too late.

Yesterday we mentioned the (as yet) unreleased Rasmussen on New Jersey, showing Democratic incumbent Menendez opening up a two-point lead over State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr. Today, Quinnipiac released it's THIRD New Jersey poll since September 20 (only ONE PA poll in that span), confirming the trend to the Dems in the Garden State. Quinnipiac puts it at 48% for Menendez and 44 points for the NJ favorite son's favorite son. Strategic Vision goes along, with the poll released today showing Menendez squeaking by with a one-point lead and a hearty 15% undecided. The New Jersey race has been even nastier than Santorum's swipes at Casey. The undecideds are not happy with that, but, I promise you, they will break for the Democrat on November 7. The CNN Poll is making it 51%-44% for Menendez among likelies and 50%-38% overall.

In Rick Santorum's home state, Rasmussen has released a second poll right on the heals of last week's survey,which had put Allen up a point. Rasmussen's latest poll in Virginia has the Democrat Webb leading Allen by 5 points when "leaners" are included. CNN has the Democrat ahead by 4 points among likely voters.

In Tennessee, CNN has the Republican Corker ahead of Ford, 52%-44% among likelies. Rasmussen will be releasing a poll there that puts Ford back two points.

In Missouri, CNN has Republican incumbent Jim Talent trailing Clair McCaskill 51%-43% overall, but dead even at 49% among likely voters. A Rasmussen poll due out soon will show the Democrat ahead one point, 48%-47%. This is a down trend for Talent.