Friday, October 27, 2006

Senate Races Outside Pennsylvania

{UPDATED 10/27/06}This began life as an update to this morning's bit on the Senate in Play, but I decided it deserved to run loose on it's own:

Rasmussen's latest on the NJ race (not released except to Premium Members yet) has the race dead even at 45-45. has now moved the NJ race into the toss-up category. Menendez has been a disappointment. NJ should not have been in play. {UPDATE 10/27/06} Unreleased Dem internal, puts Menendez up 9 -- 45%-36%.

In Missouri, Rasmussen's (again, not public yet) latest poll gives Talent a 2-point advantage, 50-48%.

Virginia incumbent George Allen is a toenail ahead of Webb in Virginia, 49%-48% (again, an unreleased Rasmussen survey). {UPDATE 10/27/06} Rasmussen Virginia survey released.

In Ohio, SurveyUSA today released a death-blow poll for Mike DeWine (who is all in all not horrible as Rs go), giving Brown a 20-point lead, 57-37. {UPDATE 20/27/06} Unreleased Rasmussen poll has it 54%-43% for Brown (D).

Harold Ford is 2-points ahead of Republican Corker, 47-45, according to an unreleased internal DSCC poll.

{UPDATE 10/27/06} Latest Rasmussen has the Tennessee race a nail biter -- Corker 47%; Ford 46%.


Perry Christopher said...

hey big fat slob:

Ford's campaign imploded. He is done.

Where else can I call someone a big fat slob without getting in trouble?

LVDem said...

how the hell did Ohio get so out of control... those are St. Torum like numbers.

Pennsylvania Independent said...

I think Rick Santorum will lose his seat in office

LVDem said...

bold prediction there!

Will Divide said...

Still waking up here, but I am still trying to get a grip on why the GOP is imploding in upstate NY (even LI looks dicey for 'em), PA and, Jesus, OHIO??!!

I think it is because these places were ignored by the national party for too fucking long. All the sun belt pandering, the jesus screaming, the fast buck tax dodging which worked great in Alabama and Nevada stopped making sense in the north east some time ago. And no one in any position of Repub party influence cared.

Ha ha.

A Big Fat Slob said...

I think there is a new paradigm at play in this year's mid-terms.

Reading a NYTimes article about the Jersey elections, I was astonished by the "main street people" quotes. Ordn'ry folk -- not political wonks like you and me -- speak about voting for the Democrat because they do not want the Republicans to have control in Washington anymore. If I recall correctly, 60-something percent of Menendez's support is from people who are voting for him because they want more Democrats in the Senate. (Remember, Menendez isn't a true "incumbent" -- this is his first statewide run for federal office.)I think that is what is happening across the country.

People are waking to realize that that warm bowl of oatmeal they've been spooning down for six years was really fresh cow dung.

The Republicans' move from their central core values -- strong military, small government, balanced budget -- has left a significant number of people who considered themselves republicans and conservatives no longer feeling at home in the Rovian party of Christ, pedophillia, and nation building.

So, while I get nervous looking at the Senate polls in New Jersey and Tennessee and Missouri, I think at the end of the day people are going to vote for change. This year, "change" means not necessarily changing the party in control of their own state's Senate seat, but changing the party in control in Washington.

Frankly, I don't think even in the Clinton mid-term disaster that there was as wide-spread a national outlook in the minds of the voters as we see today. The "street talk" is about changing the direction of the country and that necessarily means sending more Demiocrats than Republicans to Washington.